What if I proposed a game to you: We both roll a die, if you are higher you win, if I roll higher I win, if we both roll the same we call it a draw. What? You don’t like it? Purely luck? - Yeah, I think the same…
The fact that luck is determining the outcome of games is something that I do not like in general. In my opinion a game outcome should be much more determined by the decisions the players take, by the strategy and tactics they apply then by a random factor. And while I admit that some random factor is needed in all games in order to bring variance, I think that the dice have too much impact in Axis and Allies games.
As you might have guessed by now, I am a big fan of the Low Luck variant of Axis and Allies. I have noted that many players do not like this variant, and I wonder why. So I want to take the opportunity to explain -and advertise!- this variant here. I will go through it in three sections, staring with explaining the Low Luck Principle, then the options the TrippleA engine holds for us, and in the end explaining some Implications to the game and my personal opinion. Feel free to comment, add or disagree with me!
Please not that all my examples relate to G40 OOB rules.
A. The Low Luck Principle
The Low Luck variant uses the expected result as basis for a combat outcome. It directly applies the expected number of hits from your units in the battle, instead of rolling for each unit. Dice are only rolled in case the expected result is not a full hit. By doing this, the expected result does not change, but the variance of the results is much more limited.
To determine the number of hits in a round of battle the total power of a combatant is determined by summing up the (offensive or defensive) strengthes of its units (e.g. for 2 tanks and 1 fighter attacking that would be 9 = 3 + 3 + 3). The statistical expectation is that you score one hit for every 6 total strength you have (e.g. in above example that would be 1.5). The Low Luck calculation consequently applies an automatic hit for every 6 points of total power. For the remaining power, that cannot be divided by 6, a dice is rolled to determine if a hit is scored (e.g. in above example that would be on dice with hit at 3).
Examples
- If you are attacking with 6 Infantry, you expect to score one hit. You are rolling 6 times (hit at 1), and the expectation is that one of the Infantry hits and the others miss. Low Luck will sum up your total strength to 6, and let you score one automatic hit.
- If you are defending with 2 fighters and 1 Infantry your defence power is 10 (4 + 4 + 2). You will score one automatic hit and roll one die (hit at 4 = 10 - 6) to determine if you score a second hit.
The Low Luck principle can be applied for all units that target the same set of enemy units. In my playgroup we are applying it whenever possible, e.g. also for offshore bombardment and strategic bombing raids. In TrippleA not all of this can be handeled, but I will explain now what options are there in our beloved game engine.
B. TrippleA Low Luck Options
There are several options to implement the Low Luck principle into your TrippleA game, all available at the start of the game through Map Options. I will give an overview on how trippleA behaves with these options (based on my experience / version - 2.5.22294)
This option will generally apply the Low Luck principle to all of your sea and land combats. A little exception is the behaviour of submarine and offshore bombardment. Note that this option includes air battles prior to strategic bombing raids and AA defense of complexes, but not the raid damage.
Here some remarks how the engine handeles combats:
a) Submarines will always rolled seperately. This applies for all combats, no matter if destroyers or planes are involved. Nevertheless, if several submarines are present the Low Luck principle will be applied to them (e.g. two subs roll one dice at 4).
b) Planes will be rolled seperately from naval units if enemy submarines are present and no friendly destroyer present (since the planes cannot hit the subs in that case).
c) Offshore bombardment will always be rolled seperately, if several ships bombard the Low Luck principle will be applied to them (e.g. two cruisers score an automatic hit).
d) Air battles prior to strategic bombing raids will be treated with Low Luck, e.g. 4 bombers participating in an air battler will roll one dice at 4 to hit.
- Low Luck for AntiAircraft
This option will apply the Low Luck principle to all Anti Aircraft Guns. This means 1 AA hits at a 3, two AA score an automatic hit (provided that there are enough planes attacking). If not ticked AAA will each be rolled seprately with hits at 1.
- Low Luck for Bombing and Territory Damage
This option will apply the Low Luck principle for the damage done by strategic bombing raids, in particulary result in an average damage each time. This option will limit the damage done to a facility by a successfull raider to 5 or 6 damage for strategic bombers and 3 or 4 damage for tactical bombers
The engine will roll a dice for each bombing plane: 1-3 will result in the lower damage and 4-6 in the higher damage.
This option will apply the Low Luck principle to your tech rolls. This means you have only one roll to determine if ou get a tech. It also means that you can spend 30 IPC to buy 6 tokens and get an automatic tech (Not sure what happens if you spend more - who does that anyways??). Rolls on the tech charts, to determine which tech you have developed is performed as normal.
Just want to mention here that the trippleA battle calculator can calculate also Low Luck combat.
C. Implications to the Game
In this section I will give some remarks from my experience how the game changes with Low Luck. I actually think that the changes are not that big, given that the majority of the rules still apply. Nevertheless I have noted some behaviours with my own play that I would like to share.
a) Less need for overwhelming forces. Probably the biggest impact I notice is that with Low Luck you have less need to bring overwhelming forces. In normal dice games there is a high variance of results, and the only way to mitigate unpleasant results is to increase the numbers considerably above the number needed in average. This is not true in Low Luck games. At some point your odds will be at 100%, and adding more units will only impact the expected amounts of losses, not the result itself.
The reduced need of overwhelming forces applies for both offense and defense.
b) More predictable leftovers. In Low Luck games you can much more reliable calculate which forces will remain after the battle. This often leaves you in a position to additionaly understand if the remaining forces are enough to survive counter attacks, and integrate that into your decision whether or not to do an attack.
c) Calculated losses. When planning your Low Luck attack you are often able to guarantee that you are not losing any valuable units such as planes. If you are e.g. attacking 6 Infantries with 2 Infantries and enough planes you will not lose any of your planes, guaranteed.
d) Secure trade of territories. With Low Luck the trading of territories is reliable. If you e.g. attack a territory containing 1 enemy Infantry with 2 Infantries and a bomber you are guaranteed that you will conquer it, and you can reliably block enemies there next turn e.g. from blizzing through it, or stacking planes there.
D. Some Personal Opinion
Does Low Luck favour Allies or Axis?
Thats the usual question I get when discussion this option, and, honestly, I am not so sure here. Reviewing the above mentioned game implications I tend to say that Low Luck favours the allies more in the beginning, but this gets less and less during the game. This is, because in the beginning the axis has more potential to bring overwhelming forces (e.g. against china or russia) to level out the luck than the allies have. On the other hand, the allies are given better opportunity to hold precious spots (e.g. sea zones) with a marginal edge. Secure territory trading is something that is valuable for both, but also favours the allies I would say. Burma comes to my mind, which can be really game changing of you fail to trade as UK. Being able to more percisely predict the leftovers in a battle is clearly in favour of the axis. Overall, I tend to bid slightly less for Low Luck games than with usual dice.
So why do I like Low Luck?
Let me explain with an example: Let’s say I am Japan and have brought 10 tanks to attack India, which is guarded by 10 Infantry. With normal dice I have a chance of around 85%, with an average of 4 tanks left. That is a decent chance, but it does also imply that I will lose this battle every 6th time. Reflecting that, I think it is not fair. I have invested a lot in that situation, but the result of dices might still deny me my prize. Not only have I invested twice the amount of IPC than india, I have also build the tanks, moved them, and - most importently - I have played the game in a way that allows me to make this attack against an overwhelmed foe now. In being able to make this attack I have demonstrated a tactical skill that should now pay off. If the dice decided that I will lose all tanks in round one (which is possible) I will feel cheated.
Another example: Let’s say you are Japan and you have managed to outbuild my american fleet in the pacific. You have involved the allies in a lot of small battles that lead to the american fleet becoming smaller and smaller and now you have made a huge fleetpurchase in SZ6 and have a fleet there that is outnumbering mine Hawaii by far. Now I, realizing that I will lose the game, throw all my units into a desperate last assult against SZ6 that has merly 10% of success chance, and -guess what- I win and sink your fleet. Doesn’t that feel cheesy?
In my opinion this game is about strategy, about tactic and about using the rules and the map to your advantage. Dice can screw that all, even if you are the master tactican. And in the end, when being diced, I have also invested a lot of time into a game. I can stand losing because someone is better, but not because someone is luckier. I think dice should have less influence on results in this game. I think Low Luck makes the game a better game.
During my time here I have realized that many of you think otherwise. I would be interested to understand why you have such a different perception than I have, and what you like or dont like of the Low Luck concept. Feel free to express your toughts and feedback!
Thanks for reading this far and… Good Luck to you!