If Moscow fell…

[-Savage- 0]

1. The sheer size of the Soviet Union is immense.
2. Stalin had ordered the relocation of industry eastward and the evacuation of people at the beginning of Barbarossa. Urals, western Siberia, Central Asia/Kazakhstan…Stalin was preparing to keep fighting if Moscow fell to the Germans.
3. Although the Red Army wasn’t a match head-to-head with the wehrmacht, it was very skilled at the counter-attack.
4. The supply lines would have been indefensible beyond Moscow, and the drain on manpower and material too high for the wehrmacht to continue chasing the Red Army further into Russia.

Although it would have been a huge psychological(among other things) blow to lose the capitol, would the Soviets continue their war if Moscow fell?
If Stalin accepted terms of peace after the fall of Moscow, then Germany’s Eastern Front would have been settled. Germany would only need to consolidate and fortify the east while it turns west…

But if the Red Army continued the war, as it was capable of doing…

So, if Moscow fell, would the Soviets accept peace as Germany would no doubt offer? I believe they would continue the fight, with those factories out of bomber range pumping out tens of thousands of tanks and aircraft. Lend Lease deliveries went through the Arctic, Persia and the Pacific, so they would still get their supplies. The further you go into Russia, the more area the Soviets have to counter-attack and disrupt supply lines.

[Caesar-Seriona]

Knowing Stalin’s crazy ass, that answer is simple. He would allow the USSR to burn around him before any flag could secure it and we have evidence proving this. Japan laid plans to invade eastern USSR if Stalingrad was captured, would they launch it if Moscow fell?

[-Savage- 0]

@Caesar:

Knowing Stalin’s crazy ass, that answer is simple. He would allow the USSR to burn around him before any flag could secure it and we have evidence proving this. Japan laid plans to invade eastern USSR if Stalingrad was captured, would they launch it if Moscow fell?

It’s doubtful Japan would attack the Soviet Union. Those plans would have been scuttled because 2 months before the Battle of Stalingrad the U.S. Navy destroyed half of the IJN, losing 4 large fleet carriers in a single battle. With the U.S. taking the offensive in the Pacific, and the Imperial Japanese Army tied up all over the place: 27 divisions bogged down in China; and armies in Burma, Thailand, Philippines, Malaya, Dutch East Indies…not to mention the superior Soviet army only needs to defend the Trans-Siberian Railway, and furthermore the Mongols, who know intimately how the Japanese fight because they allied with the Soviets in giving the Japanese Army a beatdown just a couple years prior.

The Japanese would have been defeated sooner if they would have invaded the Soviet Far East. I’m sure Stalin wouldn’t mind if U.S. bombers hit Japan itself from Soviet Far East airbases.

[Caesar-Seriona]

You can go look it up if you don’t believe me.

A lot of people need to understand that when Japan surrendered, it still had a massive army. Japan did have plans to invade USSR and Mongolia if Stalingrad was captured and the reason for this was because the Japanese Army did not want to commit to a new front if Germany couldn’t make it easy on them and Japan assumed that Stalin would defeat the west over east. The Japanese navy did not take the Soviet Pacific Fleet serious enough to be a threat to them and the lacked the ships to launch an invasion so the best they could do is harass Japanese ports. German plans for eastern USSR was non existent because there is nothing of worth other than coil and timber to invade for, something that Japan didn’t care because their entire objective was extending their empire for lands so it made sense to them. Captured Moscow may of made Japan invade sooner but their plan clearly stated that Germany had to have firm control of Stalingrad before the Army would even think about invading USSR.

[-Savage- 0]

@Caesar:

You can go look it up if you don’t believe me.

A lot of people need to understand that when Japan surrendered, it still had a massive army. Japan did have plans to invade USSR and Mongolia if Stalingrad was captured and the reason for this was because the Japanese Army did not want to commit to a new front if Germany couldn’t make it easy on them and Japan assumed that Stalin would defeat the west over east. The Japanese navy did not take the Soviet Pacific Fleet serious enough to be a threat to them and the lacked the ships to launch an invasion so the best they could do is harass Japanese ports. German plans for eastern USSR was non existent because there is nothing of worth other than coil and timber to invade for, something that Japan didn’t care because their entire objective was extending their empire for lands so it made sense to them. Captured Moscow may of made Japan invade sooner but their plan clearly stated that Germany had to have firm control of Stalingrad before the Army would even think about invading USSR.

Oh I’m not denying they had plans. I’m merely giving my opinion–that’s it’s doubtful they would go through with it–and then I just provided my arguments.

Prior to deciding to attacking the U.S. and going south to get the oil, there was much debate in Japan about where to fight: “Strike South” to get the oil, which would mean attacking the U.S. too; or “Strike North” by invading the Soviet Far East. They couldn’t do both. They opted for striking south, as they had a year left of oil reserves. Plus, the Japanese army is just no match for the superior Soviet troops, and the Siberian divisions were Russians best troops in the country.

Now, the Japanese attacked when it did(Dec 1941) because the Germans were knocking on Moscow’s door. However, any potential plan to invade the Soviet Union IF Stalingrad had been captured by the Germans in 1942 was scuttled because in June of 1942 the U.S. had destroyed half of the entire Imperial Japanese Navy in a single blow. The Japanese army was ALREADY committed to the south, and even the crack Kwangtung Army was no match for the Soviet mech and arm. The Soviets–and their Mongolian allies–spanked the Japanese already.

So I’m not saying there was no plans, but I’m saying that had they invaded the Soviet Union after ALREADY being at war with the U.S.–and the U.S. ALREADY decimated their fleet just 6 months into the war–that invading the Soviet Union would have brought about Japan’s destruction sooner. This is simply my opinion of course.

Regarding Japan’s huge army at the end of the war, the Soviets destroyed what was on the continent. Aug 6th 1945 the U.S. dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima…still no surrender. Aug 9th the Soviets violated the Neutrality Pact and invaded Manchuria, destroying Japan’s crack Kwangtung army of almost 1 million strong. Also Aug 9th the U.S. drops another bomb on Nagasaki. Japan didn’t surrender until the 15th, at a time when Russian troops mopped up the continent and planned an invasion of Japan’s northernmost island.

A close examination might suggest it was the Soviets who finished off the Japanese, and not the American’s.

[Caesar-Seriona]

Japan if I remember correctly, still had about a million soldiers in China and about a million more on Japan and I’m not taking into account Japanese Militia which would boost the main island even higher. I agree that Japanese invasion of USSR would of been foolish but then again, we’re taking about a nation that takes pride over tactics.

[Narvik]

Well, you guys think like western people living in 2017. You are far away from the reasoning the Japanese leaders did between 1930 and 1945. Yes, of course there were a tiny group of officers in the Army that had a dream to occupy Moscow, but they were not in power. The main objective of Japan back in 1930 was to rule the Pacific Ocean and South East Asia mainland. And nothing more. So no matter what happened in Europe, Japan would never attack Russia.

Treaties and Pacts are not worth the paper they are written on so lets keep that out. Japan was too dependent on Russia to attack it. Also, the Japanese people did not love the idea of being lesser worth of the Arians, should Hitler win. After 1937, USA, UK and the Dutch run a blockade against Japan. Only Russia would support Japan, and give them supply and resources. The border clash between Japan and Russia in 1939 was bad, but it was also a mistake, and the trade continued. Everybody believed that Germany would take Moscow in 1941, and Japan used that opportunity to attack USA and UK. Japan would not attack Russia, even when Hitler urged them to. Even if Germany had captured Moscow, Stalingrad, and the Archangel Aztrakehan line, even then I doubt that Japan would have joined the attack on Russia. In fact, Japan let the Lend Lease from USA to Russia be shipped from Alaska to Vladivostok, without stopping it. And the US convoys sailed unprotected through the straits on Japan mainland, it would not have been difficult to close the strait. So I guess Japan was not a nice Ally to Germany, in fact they backstabbed them. Severe. It was not in Japans interest with a weak Russia and strong racist Hitler that ruled the world, considering Hitlers distaste for colored people, like the Japanese.

[Caesar-Seriona]

@Narvik:

Well, you guys think like western people living in 2017. You are far away from the reasoning the Japanese leaders did between 1930 and 1945. Yes, of course there were a tiny group of officers in the Army that had a dream to occupy Moscow, but they were not in power. The main objective of Japan back in 1930 was to rule the Pacific Ocean and South East Asia mainland. And nothing more. So no matter what happened in Europe, Japan would never attack Russia.

Treaties and Pacts are not worth the paper they are written on so lets keep that out. Japan was too dependent on Russia to attack it. Also, the Japanese people did not love the idea of being lesser worth of the Arians, should Hitler win. After 1937, USA, UK and the Dutch run a blockade against Japan. Only Russia would support Japan, and give them supply and resources. The border clash between Japan and Russia in 1939 was bad, but it was also a mistake, and the trade continued. Everybody believed that Germany would take Moscow in 1941, and Japan used that opportunity to attack USA and UK. Japan would not attack Russia, even when Hitler urged them to. Even if Germany had captured Moscow, Stalingrad, and the Archangel Aztrakehan line, even then I doubt that Japan would have joined the attack on Russia. In fact, Japan let the Lend Lease from USA to Russia be shipped from Alaska to Vladivostok, without stopping it. And the US convoys sailed unprotected through the straits on Japan mainland, it would not have been difficult to close the strait. So I guess Japan was not a nice Ally to Germany, in fact they backstabbed them. Severe. It was not in Japans interest with a weak Russia and strong racist Hitler that ruled the world, considering Hitlers distaste for colored people, like the Japanese.

Who taught you WWII history because WTF was all of that.

[Imperious Leader]

He is 100% correct, reread what he posted

[General 6 Stars]

Oh boy here we go again. This topic was just discussed a few months ago.  :lol:

[-Savage- 0]

@Narvik:

Well, you guys think like western people living in 2017. You are far away from the reasoning the Japanese leaders did between 1930 and 1945. Yes, of course there were a tiny group of officers in the Army that had a dream to occupy Moscow, but they were not in power. The main objective of Japan back in 1930 was to rule the Pacific Ocean and South East Asia mainland. And nothing more. So no matter what happened in Europe, Japan would never attack Russia.

Treaties and Pacts are not worth the paper they are written on so lets keep that out. Japan was too dependent on Russia to attack it. Also, the Japanese people did not love the idea of being lesser worth of the Arians, should Hitler win. After 1937, USA, UK and the Dutch run a blockade against Japan. Only Russia would support Japan, and give them supply and resources. The border clash between Japan and Russia in 1939 was bad, but it was also a mistake, and the trade continued. Everybody believed that Germany would take Moscow in 1941, and Japan used that opportunity to attack USA and UK. Japan would not attack Russia, even when Hitler urged them to. Even if Germany had captured Moscow, Stalingrad, and the Archangel Aztrakehan line, even then I doubt that Japan would have joined the attack on Russia. In fact, Japan let the Lend Lease from USA to Russia be shipped from Alaska to Vladivostok, without stopping it. And the US convoys sailed unprotected through the straits on Japan mainland, it would not have been difficult to close the strait. So I guess Japan was not a nice Ally to Germany, in fact they backstabbed them. Severe. It was not in Japans interest with a weak Russia and strong racist Hitler that ruled the world, considering Hitlers distaste for colored people, like the Japanese.

Not sure what you mean by “You guys” but I said from the beginning there would be no Japanese attack against the Soviet Union. There was a debate about going north or south…not both. Japan opted for south. Japan simply wasn’t strong enough to attack the Soviet Union, even if it wanted to.

But it was in Japan’s interest for a weakened Russia. That is absolute. Germany, like Japan, didn’t want to take over the world, but to carve out their little piece of it. Had Germany took Moscow, the Soviet Union would have still been in the fight, which was the premise for the discussion. Had Germany beat the Soviet Union enough to seek a separate peace and end the war on that front, Hitlers racist policies wouldn’t have reached to other side of the world.

But we are in agreement Japan did not entertain any real debate about attacking the Soviet Union once they were committed with striking south.

[Caesar-Seriona]

Novik lines in history are all incorrect except maybe the racist look downs from Hitler.

Where do I begin?

Japanese war records conclusively proved that Japan was on stand by to invade USSR should Stalingrad fall. Reason for this is because Germany refused to move east beyond that and Japan had interested in the region.

There was not a single blockade against Japan, embargo yes.

Trade continued between USSR and Japan because neither side knew about the clash in Mongolia until it was under full force, this was an unofficial boarder clash that benefited USSR in the end by proving the Red Army could beat Japan and weakened Japanese views on USSR.

Hitler never urged Tojo to invade USSR. In fact, Germany already knew Japanese end game which was China and India. In fact, our entire historical records speaks the opposite, Japan wanted Germany to bring USSR into the Axis Alliance.

The reason why Japan allowed Lend-Lease from Alaska to Soviet Far East was because on the Non-Aggression, in fact, only Soviet merchant ships did this AND USSR refused any military equipment to come through because USSR wanted ZERO Just Cause for Japan to attack.

So I have no idea who the hell taught you WWII because simply put, you’re fucking wrong on all accounts.

[aequitas-et-veritas]

Again, Narvik is correct.
Das Reich and Japan might be Axis partners but did not share the same interests.
No reason to loose your cool.
Check your sources, read between the lines and use common sense for the people in '30-'47 time period.
A lot of books had been written, only a few provide the truth.
Talk with some Vet’s. :wink:

[Caesar-Seriona]

No, he’s not right at all. Neither are you, it’s called research, try it sometime.

[Imperious Leader]

Japanese war records conclusively proved that Japan was on stand by to invade USSR should Stalingrad fall.

Bullarky. Source?

Nothing of value in eastern Russia, in 39’ they fought over nothing and got smacked and never attempted another attack.

Japanese end game which was China and India.

India? They only invaded them in 1944 because they didn’t want the British Chindits supplied combat operations and wanted their bases to put an end of these attacks. They had no “end game” for India. Controlling India would be a quagmire and they could never control them. England could not control them. Imagine Japan attempting to control both China and India… Impossible!

[Narvik]

@Imperious:

Imagine Japan attempting to control both China and India… Impossible!

I love this, imagine Japan attempting to control both China and India, and USSR, and USA too, and why not the whole world too ? At that time it was 70 million Japanese people, trying to control 400 million Chinese peoples, and 300 million Indians, not to say 200 million Russians, and on top of that 130 million Americans. Add to that all the millions of French, British, Canadians, Aussies, etc etc people that are not easy to control. Japan didn’t even control all of China, just some cities at the coast.

Sometimes, at forums like this, some people tell us that Japan was close to invading USA in 1941, I belive they even made a movie about it starring John Belushi. It is historical correct that after the attack on Pearl in december 1941, some subs did continue to the US Western coast, and sank some trannies, and even startet a fire on an Oregon forest. But from that, to imagine the submarine crew, armed with sidearms, would walk onshore and start to invade all of USA, well, I dont know how to respond on that. It may seem a little bit far fetched, even to me. Some may even call that idea derogatory, bordering bedlam, if not far out insane in the membrane. Man.

Fact is, Japan did not even have enough trannies to invade Hawaii. They barely had trannies to supply the garrisons they had on their own islands to start with. Its a miracle they even were able to accomplish what they did, if you look at the start line set up in 1941.

[CWO Marc]

On paper – and I stress the “on paper” part – Germany, Italy and Japan did have plans to divide up the world between themselves, at least insofar as definining their respective zones of military operations.  These plans were part of a secret military agreement reached between Japan, Germany and Italy on 18 January 1942.  A translation of the text of the agreement is given in Appendix D of the book Reluctant Allies: German-Japanese Naval Relations in World War II (U.S. Naval Institute Press, 2001).  The section of the agreement concerning the division of zones of operations reads:

---

The German and Italian armed forces, as well as the Japanese army and navy, will, within the framework of the zones allocated to them hereinafter, carry out the required operations.

1. Japan

a. The waters to the east of approximately 70 degrees east longitude up to the west coast of the American Continent, as well as the continents and islands located in these waters (Australia, Dutch East Indies, New Zealand, etc.).

b. The Continent of Asia, east of approximately 70 degrees east longitude.

2. Germany and Italy

a. The waters to the west of approximately 70 degrees east longitude up to the east coast of the American Continent, as well as the continents and island located in these waters (Africa, Iceland, etc.).

b. The Near East, the Middle East, and Europe west of approximately 70 degrees east longitude.

3. In the Indian Ocean, each side may carry out operations across the above-agreed boundary according to the situation.

---

Even though this agreement merely defines zones of military operations (as opposed to dividing up the world for purposes of conquest and occupation), it’s still a rather optimistic aspirational document; as far as the Eurasian landmass is concerned, it doesn’t reflect realistically how far to the east Germany could have advanced nor how far to the west Japan could have advanced.

In its campaigns in the Pacific and Southeast Asia from December 1941 to May 1942, Japan gave the US and the UK and the Netherlands the impression that Japan was a military juggernaut…but Japan’s campaigns against China and Russia in the period from 1937 to 1941 paint a different picture.  Despite the fact that Japan was unified, regimented, industrialized country with fairly advanced military technology, and that China in contrast was a politically fragmented, industrially backward, militarily weak country, Japan never managed to conquer more than about a third of China, even though on paper it should have beaten the pants off of both Chiang and Mao.  And Japan did even worse in its undeclared Manchurian/Mongolian border wars against the USSR in the late 30s and early 40s; it failed to make territorial gains of any significance, and in the last of those conflicts it got trounced by the Soviets (headed by an at-the-time relatively obscure general named Georgi Zhukov).  The USSR was in quite a different league from China, both industrially and militarily, and it showed.  Japan had been operating on the basis of the fond memories it had of the years immediately after WWI, when it had occupied some significant stretches of real estate in Eastern Russia, and Japan had fantasies of recapturing those past glories; those fantasies, by one account, included controlling all the Russian territory east of Lake Baikal.  In their only attempt to turn those fantasies into reality, however (meaning the border wars I’ve mentioned), the Japanese failed lamentably and they eventually agreed to a non-aggression pact with the Soviets.

[Karl7]

Returning to “If Moscow fell…”

I am a big reader of the eastern front, so I like to think I have some knowledge on this.

I think if Moscow fell, the Soviet Union would have been thrown into major disarray.  Looking at the transport maps of Russia, Moscow was the major hub.  Supplying and reinforcing much of the front would have become exponentially harder. Leningrad and the entire north/western sector would have been cutoff and then withered and surrendered.  The south had the Volga some better rail-links directly eastward, but not much.

Yes, Stalin would have fallen further back and probably continued fighting, but further major fighting would have likely only been possible on the Moscow-Gorky Axis.  This would have favored the Germans going on the defensive and letting the remnant Russians ram their heads into the wall.

Finally, Stalin would have had to have faced the political implications of losing the capitol.  The Soviet government wasn’t entirely monolithic, and I could imagine creeping dissent starting to bubble up, especially from the southern and eastern republics (which did happen during the real war, although the dissenters were brutally suppressed).

So, I think capturing Moscow would have lead to an eventual victory in the east.  It wouldn’t have been immediate, but it would have gutted the USSR’s ability to continue fighting regardless of their continued build up.

(Of course I say that acknowledging the possibility Hitler, upon victory, would have stupidly withdrawn forces for other adventures leaving the door open for a Russian resurgence.  Pacifying and effectively securing the east would have taken many years.)

[General 6 Stars]

But didn’t the Russians have major producing factories in the Urals and with some time would of pushed back the Germans with or without Stalin. Germany would be a long way from home so they would need to build there own Factories in Russia to keep up with the demand.

[-Savage- 0]

@Karl7:

Returning to “If Moscow fell…”

I am a big reader of the eastern front, so I like to think I have some knowledge on this.

I think if Moscow fell, the Soviet Union would have been thrown into major disarray.  Looking at the transport maps of Russia, Moscow was the major hub.  Supplying and reinforcing much of the front would have become exponentially harder. Leningrad and the entire north/western sector would have been cutoff and then withered and surrendered.  The south had the Volga some better rail-links directly eastward, but not much.

Yes, Stalin would have fallen further back and probably continued fighting, but further major fighting would have likely only been possible on the Moscow-Gorky Axis.  This would have favored the Germans going on the defensive and letting the remnant Russians ram their heads into the wall.

Finally, Stalin would have had to have faced the political implications of losing the capitol.  The Soviet government wasn’t entirely monolithic, and I could imagine creeping dissent starting to bubble up, especially from the southern and eastern republics (which did happen during the real war, although the dissenters were brutally suppressed).

So, I think capturing Moscow would have lead to an eventual victory in the east.  It wouldn’t have been immediate, but it would have gutted the USSR’s ability to continue fighting regardless of their continued build up.

(Of course I say that acknowledging the possibility Hitler, upon victory, would have stupidly withdrawn forces for other adventures leaving the door open for a Russian resurgence.  Pacifying and effectively securing the east would have taken many years.)

Thank you for the input. This is not my area of expertise.
“Pacifying and effectively securing the east would have taken many years.” Adding to this, unlike Lenningrad, which was just under siege for years, the Germans attempted to actually CAPTURE Stalingrad. Heavy fighting in an urbanized industrial stronghold, where the defenders used the rubble to further their defense. To take Moscow seems an even bigger nightmare. House-to-house fighting, and snipers and booby-traps. Lets say the Germans did capture it…holding this would be a nightmare I can imagine. The area is so vast around the city, the Russians could counterattack supply lines leaving the Germans besieged in an unfriendly city.

The amount of time needed to secure and pacify the area would require a huge garrisons and time for the Russians to work out their own supply lines from their new center of operations. Again, this isn’t my area of expertise, but I’m just throwing things out there.