After consideration I’ve decide that Overkill actually isn’t a problem, and I’ll explain why in a second. But before I get to that I will respond to the TUV metric.
TUV metric is what I’ll push for next. We are discussing it in the league general discussion, apparently it’s been play tested with great results. Basically, take expected TUV, vs actual TUV recieived. But this has it’s own problems. Some battles can go wild. running a battle calc can give you -20 to +30 on some larger battles, and vary in between those numbers each time you click the button. I’ve seen lots of 50/50 battles like this. SO it’s not without error; but I do like it overall.
My vision for this would be, you start the turn, prep all your combats, select DONE combat move. It’s at that point that it then calculates all your expected combat results; then you roll dice. TUV’s can then be compared by triple A of the before and after for a final cumulative output.
But here’s the thing, there’s lots of kinds of luck in axis and allies; and Having a low die roll is a luck that is independent from what type of unit it hits. The two should not be confused.
Ultimately - this is what I am trying to prove. That at any given point, when you roll a dice (1 die at a time), how you are performing compared to expected value. So you can wholesomely establish whether it’s entirely been just a dicing or not; regardless of what units got hit in what battles, or where, or on what turn (early hits better than later). The dice don’t care if it’s a battleship or a bomber.
A whiner’s argument is that everytime they roll a die, their average is off the median. What we want to prove is whether that’s true or not, so we are isolating and compartmentalizing chance specifically down to each die, each time it’s rolled, one at a time; compared to it’s expected value.
This is why OVERKILL isn’t a problem. We calculate each dice. If you’re getting diced it will reflect equally in overkill as in normal battles.
Also in my game against farmboy right now for example, I HAVE to send overkill, in order to secure victory, it’s not a choice. the dice have been that bad. Sometimes it takes 3 turns of 3 bombers to get ONE hit. and if I sent 100 bombers and got 10 hits; in one battle or over several battles, those poor results should be reflected. But if I’ve lost some small battles, but done average in the large ones; then I want to know that really in the big picture I haven’t been diced.
BACK to TUV calculations, other than the previously mentioned solution, I have another metric in mind that may help alot; or in a different way. I’m pushing for a cumulative casualty reporting system. So we can know how much plastic we have killed each game, of what type. This will help show TUV scores as the game progresses.
Once we start down this type of road of statistical reporting, we will start getting more reports. Like what’s russia’s kill ratio against Germany, or USA vs Japan, and that kind of thing. We’re going to get a TON of information mined out of the game, and things will continue to evolve from there.
Please understand for now, that the goal is just to prove whether the dice have been cruel or not; independent of when or where. Adding layers after or dissecting that information with different tools for different perspectives is stage #2.
Sorry for wall of text!