Match Spotlight #1: ArtofWar1947 (Axis) vs Amon-Sul (Allies + 7) LL, G40 League
Note that this is a Low Luck game, which is not my preference since it takes away one of the most important skills in this game: Being able to cope bad dice results. While it is possible to completely get diced in crucial 99% battles and thus losing despite playing perfectly, most of the time bad dice wont cost you the game immediately since your opponent should face the same issues if the game just goes on long enough.
I write the report WHILE watching the game. So I don’t know what will happen next and any assumptions I make are just that - assumptions. Let’s see how good I can predict what will happen next.
Placement
Placement almost always goes at least partly into the Mediterranean area. And for a good reason: More often than not, the game is decided by holding Egypt or not. Additionally, the Axis have a hard time capturing Egypt, if they are failing to do so in the first 3-4 turns. And on top of that, this is one of the few regions, where immediate action is guaranteed in round 1, and 1-2 more units will really make a difference!
Allies decide to place Inf+Art in Alexandria. Strong placement, since it kicks Italy almost completely out of North Africa. It kinda forces you to attack SZ97 though. Germany could abuse this knowledge to plan a sealion attempt.
Germany 1
Highly unsual purchase. 6 Art are strong for a Barbarossa campaign. However, I personally prefer at least leaving the Sealion option on the table. With this opening, you nearly guarantee capturing Moscow. However, it gives UK a lot of freedom, for example to purchase an Egypt factory right away.
The combat is pretty standard. Only the Tac in North Italy is weird - probably a mistake by accident.
UK scrambles from Scotland, which is a possible decision here. If Germany attacks 111 with the Battleship and this constellation of planes, it highly suggests he wants to retreat after one round, leaving behind a damaged British battleship without harbour and saving the own one. BUT the German purchase didn’t imply that option, so in the end, I personally would not have scrambled.
In this case however, ArtOfWar didn’t retreat and the Allies had a little bad luck, killing only one tac and the sub.
Nothing special otherwise.
Russia 1
Very risky purchase! 3 Inf+7 Art instead of the usual 7Inf+3Art or 11Inf+1Art. Germany showed a clear will to play Barbarossa and thus Russia should normally play as defensive as possible.
Additionally Russia moved all fast units to China! Amon-Sul is basically begging for Moscow to be captured, if he really goes through with it.
Russia should have also moved the Cruiser in the Baltic Sea to prevent a landing in Novgorod.
Japan 1
Starting with Factory + 2 Transports is the normal way. You can also start with 3 transports. Both have advantages and disadvantages. I don’t like ArtOfWar leaving the majority of the fleet in SZ6. If you place them at Carolines or similar, you are at least threatening to move in on Anzac or even Hawaii in J2. You are also basically giving away the information, that you intend to do a J3. This gives India sooo much freedom. Big mistake here already!
And also: Factory in Korea? WTF? Why?
USA 1
Splitting the purchase nearly half-half in both oceans is not what I really like, but okay. You can do that. As long as you make sure to always put more into Pacific than into Atlantic in USA1, you’re fine.
Moving the sub+Destroyer from Philippines to India is something new to me. Normally they go to Canberra to unite with the rest of the fleet faster. But since Japan’s fleet was mostly in Japan, this was okay.
China 1
Attacking Yunnan with only 4 Inf +1 Fighter would be crazy with regular dice! This first recapture of Yunnan is very important for China and must not fail. But this is LL.
I really don’t recommend stacking Szechwan, unless Russia will reinforce it too (which leaves Russia in a bad state however). Japan can attack Szechwan with the planes for an average of -10 TUV, which is TOTALLY worth it!!! And Japan could have had even more planes in Kwangsi (but they are on the carriers in SZ6…, totally useless there). But it seems Amon-Sul plans on supporting China with Russia.
UK 1
I would have decided to use the London destroyer and one Fighter to kill the German Battleship. That’s a +12 given there! Plus, you keep one fighter in London (after losing the Scottish Fighter already!) against a possible Sealion. You could move the Mech to Suriname for Brazil in UK2.
Since Amon-Sul wiped out the Italian Navy AND Tobruk, he does not need early reinforcements in Africa. Thus, placing all in London is wise. Especially after sending off every single fighter.
For the record: Not scrambling was the right decision as well from ArtOfWar. The additional German plane there has just the task of forcing the UK to send fighters from London to the attack.
Ita 1
I don’t like the Malta attack. After losing the Navy, Italy really needs the small airforce. Additionally, you give up the last transport without even getting Gibraltar or something similar important.
French 1
Leaving the German Battleship for the sole French fighter is a risky move. You only have 60% chance of killing the Battleship and you lose the last fighter defending London in 80% of the time.
Germany 2
Nothing very special here. I would have bought fast units (mech+tanks) instead of slow ones. Since the German “fleet” is pretty much non-existent, Germany is relying on conquering Moscow as fast as possible, before USA knocks on Europe’s door.
Adding 3 transports is especially weird. On the one hand, UK has no planes anymore (another reason not to throw them all away!), on the other hand attempting a sealion via Scotland is doomed after that first round purchase of Germany and UK. Especially since Russia bought so many Art and sent away mech+tanks to China, Barbarossa would be the better solution here.
Russia 2
Even after the 3 transports from Germany, buying 7 art AGAIN is highly risky! Especially since Russia now has 33 Inf and 17 Art, which is not really a good proportion.
Also: Why do you leave so much at Novgorod? This place is usually undefendable and you can’t reach anything from there!
Japan 2
ArtOfWar really needs to improve his Japan play. Another 3 transports? Isn’t that a little over the top?
Moving one transport to SZ 19? It can’t reach anything from there besides Philippines (already covered by 3 (!) transports from Japan).
Moving the Infantry out of Siam? These have direct connection to Shan State! They are very valuable in every Shan State attack.
The Fleet is still sitting totally idle in SZ6, doing NOTHING.
Buying NO fleet at all? Not wise, my friend.
And most of all: Why so many ground units in the North? Even your 4 transports can’t carry 11 units from Korea/Japan. AND 6 more in Manchuria!
USA 2
More Planes even though you already don’t have enough carriers to carry your existing ones? It looks like Amon-Sul is planning to attack SZ6. Which is a bad idea, since a good Japan player would just move the fleet to Philip or similar. With only 2 transports you can’t hope to capture Korea or Japan either (and Japan can still transport most of the units from there, since he has so freakishly many). Thus, the harbour in Midway is basically wasted as well. Now the US fleet is miles away from the money islands in the south, which is always dangerous, since Japan will very likely attack them next round.
The US fleet could have been in Canberra now, threatening every major island and Malaya at once.
UK 2
See, this happens when Japan leaves too much freedom to India. A horror scenario. The Allies are stacking Yunnan with a bazillion units. Making a J2 DOW or at least placing the fleet+transports at Malaya would threaten India much more. I can’t see how Japan will recover from these 2 bad rounds already. It is doomed already, this early in the game!
In Europe however, UK2 makes a big flaw. The German purchase of transports threatens a Scotland-sealion. And since there are zero fighters in London, placing 24 IPC in Africa is very risky. Especially since those 3 mech in South Africa are not needed at all (I mean look at poor Italy).
Germany 3
The only logical thing here after that poor UK purchase. A strong strategic bombing, followed by another transport purchase and the afforementioned Scotland landing. Suddenly buying slow instead of fast units in Germany 2 turn out to have been a good decision. Make no mistake though, against another UK2 purchase, this would not have been possible.
And by the way: Convoying London when you plan to take it is kinda counter-productive.
Russia 3
Oh my. Again, a poor decision (buying so many art) turns out to be a good one because the opponent didn’t capitalize on that mistake. Having so much offense power may be very helpful now that Germany sent a big part of the army to the Sealion operation.
However, if Russia would have moved the Novgorod units last round to Belarus, he could have stacked in Eastern Poland. How much better would that be!!! I can’t empasize this enough: If the Axis are attempting Sealion, Russia needs to sit for as long as possible in Eastern Poland, to threaten 3 Axis territories at once, making millions of cash! ATTACKING Eastern Poland, however, will prove to be difficult since Italy will be defending as well and Germany will be able to land planes there.
And also: More Artillery? You do realize, you WILL need Infantry? I would have suggested to buy 6 inf, 2 tanks, 1 fighter at this point. You will need planes!
Japan 3
Ok, Japan was doomed already. But this is the third consecutive horrible round.
Still no factory in Kwangtung or Harbour in Hainan. MORE ground units in Korea? And worst of all: You don’t take Philippines? Or French Indochina? (Well ok, in this case you would just lose it and give India 2 more IPC. So that may even be a good decision)
You STILL leave your fleet in SZ6, despite NOT declaring war on USA?
I won’t write anything anymore to Pacific. Since from this point on, the Allies can’t possibly ruin it here, whatever they do.
UK 3
Attack on Scotland? Losing 5 Inf to kill 5 Inf is a bad trade…
Attack on Sudan? The Italian troops there were no danger at all. You are more likely to lose TUV there. And even if you win that battle, you just give 1 IPC to Germany for free.
Italy 3
ArtOfWar makes the biggest European mistake so far in this game. After Russia failed to get his troops in position to stack Eastern Poland, he now fails to stack it himself. Italy could have easily attacked it. Germany will then send everything else there too (except for 3 Inf defending Poland). Russia can’t push you out, you save all 3 German territories. Without Italy, Germany might have problems defending Eastern Poland alone. You would also be one step closer to Ukraine and West Ukraine.
Germany 4
Why on earth did you not send one of the subs to 125?
But, nice job on the purchase. ArtOfWar bought just right enough to deny Eastern Poland stacking from Russia.
Russia 4
You are already suffering from not having enough Infantry to stack Eastern Poland or a fighter from Moscow that could defend it immediately and yet you still buy no Infantry. I am at a loss, Amon-Sul, for so much ignorance to Infantry!
USA 4
Your planes are sitting idly in Western United States for the second round in a row now and you still didn’t move them to Hawaii? As I said earlier - you don’t have enough carriers!
And why do you buy 3 transports, if you do not have enough troops for them? That’s a waste. You could have at least replaced it with a sub that would have been in action one round earlier.
Ita 4
Finally! Eastern Poland! Hurray!
Axis 5
Now we begin to see a major strategic flaw in Europe. If you want Sealion, you have to either
a) Hold Gibraltar
b) Be able to Recapture Gibraltar
b) Give up Gibraltar but don’t invest into the Mediterranean
Since ArtOfWar did none of these he will now have the problem of defending two fleets against one. He needs to reinforce both his fleets if he does not want to lose them, while USA will only reinforce one. Or the axis could decide to just give up one or both of the fleets in which case - lots of wasted IPC.
Allies 5
5 Strategic Bombers for Pacific? First of all, China+Anzac+India can take on Japan by themselves at this point. And you don’t need more offense power, your fleet needs more defense power! Carriers!!! Also your pacific fleet is positioned soooo poorly. You are basically threatening NOTHING from Midway. And poor Anzac can’t buy ships now, because there is no protecting fleet in Canberra.
Factory in Brazil? 12 more IPC completey wasted. This factory has no purpose at all.
Amon-Sul should definitely have used the Russian cruiser to block a Novgorod landing! And additionally, he threw away 3 inf, 3 mech and 3 tanks there for no apparent reason.
Axis 6
Factory in Greece? I have no idea what that is for.
It’s also always more efficient NOT to defend London with ground units. Because USA is threatening The Med, Normandy, Norway, Denmark, Western Germany AND London from Gibraltar, you might end up having fortified London only to lose Paris, Western Germany or Norway.
Instead, maintain a fleet+airforce, that could kill the US navy. This way you have multiple benefits:
a) USA has to constantly reinforce the navy and thus is not buying transports.
b) USA can’t go into the Med to help Egypt or land in Greece / Italy, because you would cut them out off reinforcements by landing in Gibraltar
c) Always buy a stack of ground units in Western Germany. This way USA can’t liberate London, because Germany would just recapture it and gain the bonus IPC. You can move these ground units every round to Russia, if USA didn’t land in London. That way you don’t waste ressources at all! This works for “protecting” Paris as well.
Half-time!
I will make some conclusions now.
Pacific:
As I said, Japan played very, very poorly in the first 3 rounds. Amon-Sul made big positioning mistakes as well with his fleet, but they are not as essential for the Allies. As soon as China+Anzac+India make more IPC as Japan after Round 4, it’s over!
Europe:
Both players made big mistakes here.
The Allies first played very risky with Russia. Luckily for them, Germany didn’t exploit that fact. But then they ended up with no fighters in London and somehow fell for a Sealion, despite 4 transports being a huge warning signal. Since Russia made poor positioning decisions, he was not only able to use the sealion for Russias benefit (Russia could have easily gone up to 50-60 IPC). Amon-Sul also thew away many units unnecessarily (like in Novgorod).
ArtOfWar on the other hand couldn’t decide for one proper strategy. He started with Barbarossa in G1 only to then switch to a Scotland-Sealion (That would not have worked with another UK2). But that sealion wasn’t backed up by
a) a strong Axis fleet to defend Gibraltar or
b) a strong Axis stacking in Eastern Poland earlier
Now he ended up with a weak Russia project AND the necessity to defend London, France, Rome and Western Germany all at once with ground units.
From this point on, the Allies can’t really lose the game anymore. Let’s have a look at the rest of the rounds
Allies 8
What the hell were you thinking, Amon-Sul, when you moved to 109? Especially since this is Low Luck!!! You lost 100 TUV there and another 25 in Eire. Wow
And by the way, that’s the reason why you don’t spam Strategic bombers. Imagine instead of 9 Strats you would have had 3 full carriers with fighters! Your situation would have been so much better!
At least Russia is doing just fine
Axis 11
What. The. Freaking. Fuck? You moved your entire Med Navy into SZ95? For no reason at all! Only to be slaughtered!
Well there’s nothing much left to say. Everything was basically clear after Round 6. Germany didn’t have enough power to overcome Russia AND defend against USA. ArtOfWar could have been able to exploit the US blunder at Eire, if Japan would not have been in a horrible state from Round 1 on. That suicide in SZ95 just ended every speculation in Europe as well.
GG, I hope you had fun reading. Please bash me now with harsh comments.
