P40 VonLetto (x) v Gamerman01 Pointlessly Broken, USA is doomed game 1

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Pacific 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.0

Game History

Round :1

Politics - British
            British takes Political Action: Political Action British To War With Japanese
                British succeeds on action: Political Action British To War With Japanese: Changing Relationship for Japanese and British from Neutrality to Unprovoked
                British succeeds on action: Political Action British To War With Japanese: Changing Relationship for Japanese and ANZAC from Neutrality to Unprovoked
                British succeeds on action: Political Action British To War With Japanese: Changing Relationship for Japanese and Dutch from Neutrality to War
                British succeeds on action: Political Action British To War With Japanese: Changing Relationship for Chinese and British from Neutrality to Allied
                British succeeds on action: Political Action British To War With Japanese: Changing Relationship for Chinese and ANZAC from Neutrality to Allied
                British succeeds on action: Political Action British To War With Japanese: Changing Relationship for Chinese and Dutch from Neutrality to Friendly

Purchase Units - British
            British buy 1 bomber; Remaining resources: 4 PUs;

Combat Move - British

Non Combat Move - British
            1 battleship moved from 37 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from India to 39 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from India to 39 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
                  British take Java from Dutch
            1 artillery moved from 42 Sea Zone to Java
            3 infantry moved from Malaya to Shan State
            2 infantry moved from Burma to Yunnan
            5 infantry moved from India to Burma
            3 aaGuns moved from India to Burma
            1 fighter moved from Burma to Chahar
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from India to Chahar
            1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 39 Sea Zone to 45 Sea Zone

Place Units - British
            1 bomber placed in India

Turn Complete - British
            British collect 20 PUs; end with 24 PUs total
            Objective UK Pacific 2 Kwangtung And Malaya: British met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 29 PUs

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Pacific 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.0

Game History

Round :1

Purchase Units - ANZAC
            ANZAC buy 1 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - ANZAC

Non Combat Move - ANZAC
            1 cruiser moved from 63 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from New South Wales to 62 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 62 Sea Zone to 63 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from New Zealand to 63 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 62 Sea Zone to 29 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Queensland to Samoa
            2 fighters moved from New Zealand to Samoa
            1 infantry moved from Malaya to Shan State
            1 artillery moved from Queensland to New South Wales
            2 infantry moved from 63 Sea Zone to New Zealand

Place Units - ANZAC
            1 infantry placed in New South Wales
            1 transport placed in 62 Sea Zone

Turn Complete - ANZAC
            ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 10 PUs total
            Trigger ANZAC 1 Control Original And Malaya: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 15 PUs

Dude, I really don’t get it!  You make 1 move a day at your convenience, and in about 2 days we’re done!  The heart of the matter is soon to be decided - we have the first round done.

I can’t play live, because it takes me an hour to do a play.  Plus however long it takes you to do your move.  I’m not committing 4-5+ hours to playing a game at one sitting - I would get fatigued anyway.

You’re getting my best game right here, and I really don’t think the Allies can do anything better than what I’m doing right now (call me cocky if you want - I don’t care).  I’ve already made a significant improvement on the Allied response as compared to the Sword game.

Just download the ANZAC file, load it into Triple A, make your move at your convenience, and click “post” when you’re done.

I FAIL to understand what your problem with this method of playing is.  Dang, how much more easy and convenient can it possibly be?  You’ve been on the boards throughout the day anyway.  I don’t understand what’s so hard??  Jeez, we’re almost half done with this game.

@vonLettowVorbeck1914:

Hopefully the best allied strat (which you are using right now) will shut this down and hopefully there is also nothing Japan could have done better against this best allied strat. I am pretty sure there is someone out there who can do better than my moves, but hopefully I’m wrong. It’s a bit unfortuntate too few care about pac for someone to really take Japan to the next level.

I was hoping 2e would have everything fixed, so hopefully this test can definitively show that is the case.

Now we’re talking!  Glad to see smart strategy talk again, and a J2!

Yes, I’m sorry for my over-reaction as well.  I’m sure I have no idea the trials and tribulations that you went through yesterday morning to play my way.

After I look over your J2, if I see anything that I humbly think could possibly be improved, I will let you know for the benefit of all in knowing whether this strat really can be stopped or not.

@Gamerman01:

I’m sure I have no idea the trials and tribulations that you went through yesterday morning to play my way.

Did you understand what I meant about setting up a rule for your e-mail program to route off all e-mails from “MARTI” to a junk folder?  Or can you just blacklist e-mails from “MARTI” or label as spam so they don’t go to your inbox?

Believe me, when I first started PBF a couple months ago, I was not happy about that either, but I pretty quickly thought up a fix (above) and now it’s not a problem…

How long did it take you to do J2?

@vonLettowVorbeck1914:

Hopefully the best allied strat (which you are using right now) will shut this down and hopefully there is also nothing Japan could have done better against this best allied strat.

To any observors: PLEASE feel free to comment directly to this thread if you have any ideas about what should be done next by either of us, or what should have been done differently.

We are both TRYING to play the optimal strat for Japan and the Allies both.  If we can both play an optimal strategy, then people won’t have to play a lot more games to figure this question out.  It’s POSSIBLE we can settle the issue one way or the other with a single game, but only if we’re making really good moves.

I think vonL and I should also be pointing out where we think the other could improve their move if we see anything, for the same reason.  Wouldn’t that be the most efficient?  Rather than someone having to play it anew just to tweak something they think could have been done differently?

I understand too, that if there are some ideas to do something differently that a new game may need to be played to try it out.  But if it’s something like “Man, why are you sitting in WUS this turn when you could move to Canada”, it would be nice to be alerted right away so we can avoid sub-optimal moves that are bringing little or no benefit, in this maiden test game.

Thanks!  :-)

@Gamerman01:

For the record, I have not studied VonL’s detailed strategy that he assures us will kill the USA with a very high percentage chance every single time.

All I know at this point is that he has a KUSAF strategy and it somehow involves the Aleutian islands and Z14.

Other than that, I have no idea what is coming.  If it succeeds the first time, maybe I will be granted another game to make adjustments.  After all, to say the game is broken your strategy has to be unstoppable even when the opponent knows pretty much exactly what is coming.  But in this first game I know none of the details.

This has changed since vonLettow uploaded 2 previous tripleA maps of this strategy.  To determine as quickly as possible whether or not the game is broken, it is more efficient to study those 2 games provided before setting up the Allied response.

So this Allied response is being prepared with full knowledge of what Japan is planning to do.  (Main points - Land on Aleutians or British Columbia as soon as possible, buying 100% transports until J3, when buying an airbase for Aleutians)

Good move - going to Z1 and Alaska prevents my plan to defend British Columbia because it is impossible to block the fleet parked in Z1, adjacent to Z10.

Studying, I think that moving to Z9 on J2 accomplishes the same thing, so even if I had blocked off a J2 attack on Alaska like was done in the Sword game, it doesn’t prevent Japan from taking British Columbia J3.

I’m not seeing a way to stop the landing of 24 ground units on British Columbia on J3.
This means Japan can attack J4 with 16 INF, 7 ART, 1 ARM, 11 FTR, 8 TAC, and 2 BMB.  I don’t think that fact can be changed.
However, it is possible for the Allies to get some extra defense to WUS.

1. Buy 5 INF US1
2. Buy BMB UK1, TP ANZ1
3. Buy 6 INF US2
4. Buy naval base for Samoa UK2
5. Move 2 loaded transports to Samoa ANZ2
6. Buy 5 INF, AA, ARM, 3 FTR US3
7. Fly in UK bomber
8. Fly in 3 ANZ fighters
9. Transport 4 ground units from Samoa

The 4 ground units from ANZAC can probably be stopped? by parking some Japanese fleet in Z10.  However, some ships will be needed to protect 6 transports that will be moving into Z1.  But maybe the US fleet is sitting in Z10 protected by potential scrambles.  I don’t know if the Japanese player would attack the US fleet, but if they don’t, the 4 ANZAC units cannot be stopped from making it to the US on ANZ3.

If ANZAC ground units are stopped, then the Allies are defending with 21 INF, ART, 2 AA, ARM, TAC, 11 FTR, 1 BMB

Assuming 1 fighter shot down by AA, the odds are 95% chance of taking WUS.  Median result is Japan survives with the tank and 13 aircraft.  Upper quartile is 17 aircraft, 3rd quartile is 9 aircraft.

However, if you have 4 ANZAC ground units on top of that, for a total of 25 INF, then
the odds are only 72.8% chance of victory.  Median result is Japan survives with 7 aircraft.  Upper quartile is 11 aircraft, 3rd quartile is FAILURE - game over.  70/30 percentile has Japan winning, but with only 1 or 2 bombers remaining.

If the Allies build maximum defense builds with the USA every turn, fly in a UK bomber and 3 ANZAC fighters, and get 4 ANZAC infantry in, the Allies have a very good chance of winning.  If WUS falls but Japan only survives with a handful of planes, the Allies still have a good chance of winning.

As Zhukov pointed out, P40 has always been unbalanced in favor of Japan.  Running the “traditional” strategy of going after India and China first should still be successful a higher percentage of the time than going KUSAF.

@Karl7:

Why didn’t us buy 2 subs or something R1?  Looks like would have had a change to kill his fleet off Alaska… maybe?

Good thought - ran the numbers - only a 4% chance of victory and you lose all your planes and you bought 4 less infantry.  Back to the drawing board, Karl.  :-)

Thanks!