I was going to answer in this thread, but you may still be my opponent in the final match of the tournament and it would be foolish of me to give such information away :-)
NICE :-) :-) :-)
+1 karma for ya
What percentage is luck involved in a games outcome?
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diplomacy is cool, as long as there are no “preset” alliances among friends…
The “playing monopoly with a couple” syndrome. Sure, I’ll trade you my good property for your worthless property so you can win honey…
Squirecam
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@Craig:
diplomacy is cool, as long as there are no “preset” alliances among friends…
The “playing monopoly with a couple” syndrome. Sure, I’ll trade you my good property for your worthless property so you can win honey…
Squirecam
Not that you ever have to worry about “the couples” thing, Squirecam. :roll: :-D
Craig
True. When you are always surrounded by beautiful women, you can’t really attach yourself to just one…
Squirecam
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The degree to which luck affects the game varies with the degree of skill of the players. The less the degree of skill of the players, the greater the degree luck affects their game.
But in the context above, “degree” is not used to describe a hard and fast direct or inverse relationship. “Degree” in this context refers to the overall tendency, the general probability.
Why do I say this?
I posit that the less skilled the players involved, the longer it will GENERALLY take for the game to end, because of the ineffectual strategies used by both sides. Over the course of a longer game, there should naturally be more dice rolls, so the cumulative effect of the luck variable will be considerable.
On the other hand, the more skilled the players involved, the sooner the game will find a crucial point or points beyond which victory may be decided. On that single or multiple battle will the outcome of the game be largely decided. So although the eventual outcome of that battle will be decided by chance, and thus the game could be said to be decided by chance, it is likely that the side that had the superior probability of winning will actually win.
Of course, that in turn asks the question of how it is that if both sides were equally balanced, how it could be that one side could have a superior probability of winning the crucial battle. The correct answer, given a starting bid option that is empirically fair, is that the side that has the superior position will have that superior position through chance.
Of course, if the starting bid is not empirically proven fair, it could simply be that both players are of insufficient skill to determine the game primarily based on skill, but must rely on luck to determine the victor.
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All in all, I would say that given the complexity of the game, it is unfair to say that the “better” player should always win, because the element of chance will make it so that the player that would win MOST of the games will lose SOME of the games, against a player of near equal skill.
So - short version. The worse the players are, the greater the element chance will play in determining the winner. However, even the best players will find that luck plays a considerable role in determining the victor.
If you want to determine a real percentage, I recommend taking down game results.
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Hi folks, new poster here :-)
I’m normally on the Avalon Hill site, but axis_roll asked for my opinion on this luck vs. skill debate…Just a couple clarifications first…
1. I assume we are talking just one single game here. Certainly over an infinite number of games, you would expect 2 players of equal skill to win a similar number of games. Luck wll eventually equal out. In a single game though, how much of a role does luck play in a game between players of equal skill?
2. By saying players of equal skill, that’s not necessarily saying two players who play exactly the same way, or are mirror clones of each other. Rather, I would use the statistical interpretation, meaning if you took an infinite number of A&A players, and had them play an infinte number of games against each other, Players A and B would be ranked in the Xth %ile for number of victories. X could be 50th%ile, 90th %ile, whatever. So both players don’t necessarily need to play the same way, or know the prefect way to respond to each other’s moves, but rather, they would win a similar number of games vs. a multitude of opponents.
3. Now with that said, the other important consideration, is how much lattitude there is in the game to allow players to overcome bad luck. Worst case scenario would be game that involved a single coin flip. Heads… Allies win, Tails… Axis wins. Then yes, this game would be 100% luck. On the flip side, say a game involves many small battles that help determine the outcome, with lots of choices and opportunities for a player to get back in the game despite some bad luck early. In this game, luck gets minimized because it’s dispersed among all these smaller battles, or less crucial dice rolls.
So, to answer your question, the percentage luck is invloved in a games outcome, ultimately depends on the game…
If the game is the original Axis & Allies, I would put the % very high, at least 80%. Two skilled players would know the best strategy is KGF for Allies, and Infantry Push to Russia for Axis. The game is partiall decided by who gets the early economic edge, but ultimately by how Japan and Germany do in the final assault against Russia.
If the game is Axis & Allies Revised, I would put the % at about 50%. The way they designed this game, the optimal playout is still the same, KGF Allies, March to Russia for Axis. Very unfortunate they goofed on this again. The 3 key battles here are what happens Round 1 in Eastern Europe, AES, and SE Asia. If the Axis fare poorly in 2 of these battles, Allies should win. Beyond that, the deciding factor then becomes what happens with the final battle in Russia.
Now, if anyone has played Axis & Allies Enhanced, I would have to put the % more around 20%. This game is all about choices, which as stated above, minimizes the impact of luck. Every unit is strategically viable. The game expands to 15VCs, making the Russia battle far less crucial. By including Pacific VCs in Haw and Aus, battles get spread out further. Tech is also more strategicically implemented, and if used correctly, can help overcome some bad dice early. Because there are so many individual choices in the game, and ways to play it out, this particular game makes luck much less of a factor.
Anyways, my AAR: Enhanced shout-out aside :-D, the answer to the question is, it depends on the game. For AAR particularly, the choices are so limited in how to win the game, that luck plays a significant factor… I would have to approximate that at least 50% of the time, the dice are too bad for either side to overcome no matter what they do.
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CJ: Its about friggin time you showed up here.
I see the game having lots of luck and thats a good thing. Too many people take it too seriously and miss the point that its also a social interaction and fun to play. This game no matter what people say is basically “buckets of dice” approach to determine outcome of battles, while the odds of a bad die roll will eventually even out, the timing of when you get the bad or good rolls is of crucial importance and can in fact lead to major reasons why some players can do well. The axis player cannot suffer a bad rolling on the early game or his game will falter, while the allies can still do okay when the dice runs cold. I also think that Milton Bradley had more luck which was usually a problem with the map and Karellia with its two opposing stacks. The game was usually decided here and a cold dice on the early rounds of combat would spell disaster on that player. Those issues were opened up in revised, but the pressure points were now assigned to a number of hot spots rather than just Karellia.
But as i say the dice are an important reason why the game is for social recreation. If it was true strategy then it would be more like Chess which has far more strategy.
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If U don’t consider the possibility of bad dice, when you push for a Major battle, in a game of NO luck, then you are a FOOL and deserve the loss that is soon to follow. JWW
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It’s cousin joe!
zomg!
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I think we should look at the much-more-analyzed Backgammon. A very similar Skill vs. Luck analysis is at:
http://www.bkgm.com/articles/Zare/HedgingTowardSkill.html
Several software (GNU, Snowie, Jellyfish etc) using genetically-trained Neural Networks succeeded to estimate ‘values’ of positions in terms of ‘equity’ or probability to win to resolutions of 0.001 (not sure if they are really that ‘right’ or non-biased, absolutely or comparing variants). Then analyzing ordinary human play, they found errors cumulating to winning and losing each game several times over ;-) so it becomes essentially a contest of making less errors !Essentially the question in A&A and any other games is: how “easy” is for real humans to do mistakes with effects comparable to the normal fluctuations of luck ?
[Backgammon] is a game of skill and luck.
If one wins it’s skill, if one loses it’s luck. -
An excellent point, especially coming on the results of a game I just finished…
Is it luck to get teh 1 in 10 result for a given battle? Or is it poor play that allowed you to be a situation where you were dependent on a 4 in 5 result or face certain defeat?
Sure, the odds say you will usually win, but if can AVOID the 8 in 10 risk and the possibility of the 1 in 10 result and till achieve your goals toward victory, would that not be superior play?
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@ncscswitch:
… but if can AVOID the 8 in 10 risk and the possibility of the 1 in 10 result and till achieve your goals toward victory, would that not be superior play?
Quite possiblly but very boring…
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Boring tends to win… Most of the time.
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Good… then a working definition of Skill would be “that thing that would need less Luck” ??
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Skillful play == play that bores your opponent into making a mistake. :evil:
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Skillful play means play that forces your opponent to TAKE RISKS in order to try to keep from losing.
Dice tend to even out, so the player that relies on them the least will USUALLY win.
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@ncscswitch:
Skillful play means play that forces your opponent to TAKE RISKS in order to try to keep from losing.
Dice tend to even out, so the player that relies on them the least will USUALLY win.
Skillful play can also force your opponent to not make any moves or retreat b/c they are exposed to unacceptable risk if they do. Of course, not moving, or retreating, can carry its own risk, even if it avoids any dice.
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Skillful play == play that bores your opponent into making a mistake. :evil:
for some reason war of attrition popped into my head as i read that.
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I have won several games by boring my opponent with my moves so that they “forced” a battle to try to break things open, and thus lost.
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all depends on the opponents number 1.
if 2 opponents are about equal then I would say 1-4 games out of 10 games “Luck” may have a serious impact on a game.
it’s a part of the game.@ncscswitch:
I have won several games by boring my opponent with my moves so that they “forced” a battle to try to break things open, and thus lost.
Boring my opponent is a favourite of mine with the allies :), sometimes Lady Luck doesn’t always go your way when the opponent is forced to make a move and you think it is in your favor but that’s what makes Axis and Allies a fun game.
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:-o
This thread has been very edjucational, witty and sometimes boring, ( I laughed and I went to sleep).
What I got out of the original Query was this; In my opinion, what % of games I played do I think the die results were the determining factor as to the outcome of the game. Because I can only view this from one viewpoint; Mine :roll:
So, my gut feeling was about 70% of the time, when I felt I was playing those of rather equal experience, and sharing comparitively the same statregy concepts.
Luck builds on itself. A little here a little more there, and if it is good to one player more than the other, it will decide the outcome.
But we play on, hoping it will smile on us again, and we can be the master once more :wink:
All in all, we don’t rely on the luck as much as try to learn to be better players, introduce a new winning strategy and all the AA world will beat a path to your gameboard and try to counter it.
Play on my gaming friends, damn the luck, cause if it wasn’t for bad luck, I wouldn’t have any at all :cry: or; my strategies suck :|
I look forward to meeting some of you in the gameroom,
Crazy Ivan
By the way, can anyone tell me how to get there from here? -
You can’t. Because once you are there, you are here. :evil:
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