In a fairly even game, what percentage win would you need in a battle that, if you won it, would just about win the game?
Assume that you can afford to lose the attacking units / there is little risk to losing your position if the battle goes for the opposition.
Assume also that both players are of about the same skill.
Not sure I understand the question. If it’s a “fairly even game” against a player of the same skill, how could I be one win away from a decisive victory in a battle where I can “afford to lose the attacking units/ there is little risk to losing…position if the battle goes for the opposition”?
If that’s the case, i’d say theoretically you should probably take a shot at at 50% or maybe even lower, because the way you describe it, there’s ultimate upside and almost no downside. I have a hard time envisioning what that scenario might even look like… maybe a small-scale tank blitz on a poorly defended capital? Sure…roll dem bones.
But really, if…
…I’m in that position with a chance to win and
…I can truly afford to lose the battle without losing much in terms of units or position, and
…it’s really an even game
I have to assume that means my opponent is similarly close to claiming a decisive victory elsewhere (otherwise how is it truly even if I’m so well positioned, but he/she is not?), so I better take my chances soon.
But in reality it depends on whether I think I will ultimately get a better shot at a decisive battle that is more in my favor by holding off that wouldn’t happen if I make the attack and fail.