When I say games I’ve played, I mean games I have been involved with, not won necessarily.
The Axis win two ways I’ve seen:
1. Germany goes all out against the USSR early on with help from Japan and basically overwhelms them before the Allies can respond. To do this, Germany takes out the British fleet, kills France, etc, maybe builds some subs or a carrier to keep the allies at bay for a time in the Atlantic. Turn 2 Germany just starts building men, tanks, mech, arts etc. Move up to the line. Have Italy attack round 3. Germany moves in round 4. Head to Novgorad to get the NO and block the USSR NO in Arch. Then move south and park in Bry. Use the Sukr miIC and maybe build one in Nukr to build up. Keep bringing in arm from Ger. Should be ready to take USSR easy, even better if this attracts mass allied ftrs to kill, which will take pressure off Japan.
2. Germany and Italy push hard in atlantic and middle east, with large German fleet build up, 2 carrier strong etc. This will bottle up UK and corner India. Then invade the USSR slowly. Hopefully by this time Axis will gain actual IPC advantage over the allies, putting time on their side. If the allies are not able to break through somewhere, then the game is over. In these situations usually it involves the Allies putting max pressure in the Atlantic to break into the med to liberate Cairo/threaten Italy. This allowed the Japanese to take India and Hawaii.