Are Strategic Bombing Raids Worth It?

[CorporalClegg]

With a 1 in 6 chance for a bomber to be shot down by preliminary AA fire, is it generally worth the risk?
Yes or no, and why?

I’m planning a video discussion on this very topic and want to include a poll.
The focus is on strategic bombers (all versions) without considering escort/interception.

Cheers!

[Private-Panic]

@CorporalClegg Hey Corp. Unless you have something better to do with the bombers then they are worth it. Each bomber on average throws 3.5. So average ipc benefit per bomber is 3.5 x 5/6 = 2.92 damage less bomber lost cost of 1/6 x 12 = 2. Which is a 0.92 ipc gain per bomber on average. But when the AAA keep throwing 1s it does not feel like it!!!

[Tizkit]

My perspective comes from 1940 Global, but I think the ideas would generally transfer to other versions. Sorry for the length but hope it helps.

My answer is “it depends”. It’s a difficult decision and I’m glad it is. Easy decisions don’t make for a very good game and degenerate into a scripted play-style. Here are the relevant factors that I see:

1. Straight Up Expected Economic Value -> It’s fairly easy to calculate the expected economic gain/loss in terms of replacement cost of lost bombers and IPC damage to the factory. In G40 it works out to +2.58IPCs per bombing run.

2. Inefficiencies -> Part of the value in #1 is actually ineffective. The practical economic value is less depending on the situation for reasons such as:

• Factories have a damage maximum so any expected economic value above the max just evaporates. A straight up calculation doesn’t account for that. So, if you are sending 4 bombers at a major complex, that’s potentially 32 points of damage, 12 of which are superfluous. So more complicated math or a simulator is required if you want the real value.

• Minimal damage is inconsequential. Often the first several points of damage don’t hinder your opponent at all. A good example of this is the Calcutta factory in G40 (a major complex) which needs 10 damage before it’s completely inoperative. If you only achieve 7 damage, the other player can still produce 3 units without any consequence, and that’s all they usually have the cash for anyway.

• Some production facilities are redundant and your opponent can work around the damage you put on them. For Example, Germany and Italy have enough factories that they can sometimes ignore damage done in Europe if there isn’t any immediate danger to strategic objectives.

3. Current Opportunity Cost -> If a bomber is engaged in strategic bombing raid it’s not rolling at 4’s in another battle. There are many cases where adding a bomber to a battle will help the expected TUV (total unit value) swing by far more than the 2.58 of the bombing raid and often with little risk to the bomber.

4. Turnover Cost -> Sometimes the factory you are bombing is likely to turn over to you in the near future anyway and the damage you put on it just ends up hurting you instead of your opponent.

5. Imminent Critical Battle Implications -> Probably the most important factor. The value of an additional individual unit gets amplified in a large and somewhat even battle. (think Moscow) For example, negating the production of a single extra infantry can change the expected TUV swing of a Moscow battle by far more than the 3IPC value of the infantry and likewise for the 12IPC value of the bomber.
   If you see yourself attacking Moscow on the following turn and want to do a bombing raid now, remember that the bombing raid may have a much larger impact on the upcoming battle than you realize. Go find a Moscow battle from a random league game and run the battle calculator with 1 less infantry on the Russian side, and then 1 less bomber on the German side instead. It’s not hard to find an example where the TUV swing changes by as much as 50 IPCs.

6. Win Expectations -> You need to consider where you stand in upcoming major battles and the game in general. There’s a good chance a bombing raid will improve your situation, but if you’re already in great shape, a win is a win. You don’t get bonus points for winning extra. You might be creating a risk that will snowball and let your opponent back onto the game. On the other hand, if you’re behind, you should be looking for risks with big payoffs, and bombing raids can definitely be that in some circumstances.

[CorporalClegg]

@Tizkit
An unbelievably detailed reply. Thank you so much Tizkit. Lots to think about here for sure

[CorporalClegg]

@Private-Panic I reached the same conclusion, private. In theory each bomber should inflict more damge than it’s own worth of 12 IPCs, but I once had 3 out of 4 of my bombers shot down in a single raid!
Thanks for your comment PP!

[barnee]

@CorporalClegg said in Are Strategic Bombing Raids Worth It?:

… but I once had 3 out of 4 of my bombers shot down in a single raid!…

yea it can be pretty devastating when that happens : ) Some people will play low luck for SBRs and dice for regular combat to prevent that.

Personally i like to just roll the dice and think of it as a challenge when it happens. Although if you’re in a good game and have limited time where you can’t play much, it would be kind of a bummer.

I suppose you could house rule a mulligan for each player. Give them 1 do over a game.

[Linkon]

@Tizkit
SB is worthwhile when you gain Heavy Bomber tech and no naval targets are available.
Bomber naval attacks can destroy a lot more enemy IPC value compared to land battles and strategic bombing.

[barnee]

@Linkon
yea naval battles can be pretty big swings. Usually why my games just have US and Jpn staring at each other lol

[Tizkit]

@Linkon
Agreed, overwhelming a naval battle with bombers is likely the single most IPC lucrative thing to do with them. However, experienced players are going to try hard not to give you that option, so alternatives are helpful.

[General 6 Stars]

@barnee said in Are Strategic Bombing Raids Worth It?:

@Linkon
yea naval battles can be pretty big swings. Usually why my games just have US and Jpn staring at each other lol

:white_frowning_face:

Not by me. Ain’t got time to stare ! Lol

[Gorshak]

@tizkit

very good explanation of the variables and considerations!
:)