Farmboy (Axis +4) vs Giallo (Allies) BM

[Giallo]

uk got lucky again

[farmboy]

UK had some good roles in Burma but you mean the US right. I had calculated gibraltar at 32% odds for you and you won with plenty of air to spare. Painful.

[farmboy]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 7

Purchase Units - Italians
            Italians buy 2 artilleries, 1 fighter, 4 infantry and 2 marines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Italians
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to 95 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to 95 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 3 infantry and 2 transports moved from 95 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from 92 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
            1 transport moved from 92 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Southern France to 93 Sea Zone
            1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 93 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 92 Sea Zone to Gibraltar
            1 bomber moved from Greece to Egypt

Combat - Italians
            Strategic bombing raid in Egypt
                    AA fire in Egypt : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                Bombing raid in Egypt rolls: 8 and causes: 6 damage to unit: factory_minor
                Bombing raid in Egypt causes 6 damage total.
            Battle in Gibraltar
                Italians attack with 1 artillery and 4 infantry
                British defend with 1 airfield and 1 harbour; Americans defend with 1 marine
                    Italians roll dice for 1 battleship and 2 cruisers in Gibraltar, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 marine in Gibraltar, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 marine owned by the Americans and 1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Gibraltar
                Italians win, taking Gibraltar from British with 1 artillery and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
                Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Americans: 1 marine

Non Combat Move - Italians
            2 transports moved from 92 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Egypt to Greece
            1 destroyer moved from 95 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Ukraine to Southern Italy

Place Units - Italians
            1 fighter and 2 infantry placed in Southern Italy
            2 artilleries, 2 infantry and 2 marines placed in Northern Italy

Turn Complete - Italians
            Italians collect 13 PUs; end with 13 PUs
            Objective Italians 1 Control The Mediterranean: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 18 PUs
            Objective Italians 5 Control Convoy Lanes: Italians met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 21 PUs
            Objective Italians 2 Roman Empire: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 26 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Italians : -0.67
    British : 0.67
    AA fire in Egypt : : -0.17

triplea_42164_Ita7.tsvg

[Giallo]

@farmboy:

UK had some good roles in Burma but you mean the US right. I had calculated gibraltar at 32% odds for you and you won with plenty of air to spare. Painful.

I had 82%

[Giallo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 7

Purchase Units - ANZAC
            ANZAC buy 2 artilleries and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 3 PUs;

Combat Move - ANZAC
            1 submarine moved from 77 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from New South Wales to South Australia
            3 fighters moved from New South Wales to South Australia

Combat - ANZAC
            Battle in South Australia
                ANZAC attack with 3 fighters and 1 infantry
                Japanese defend with 1 infantry
                    ANZAC roll dice for 3 fighters and 1 infantry in South Australia, round 2 :  0/4 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in South Australia, round 2 :  0/1 hits
                    ANZAC roll dice for 3 fighters and 1 infantry in South Australia, round 3 :  3/4 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in South Australia, round 3 :  1/1 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the ANZAC lost in South Australia
                ANZAC win with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - ANZAC
            3 fighters moved from South Australia to New South Wales

Place Units - ANZAC
            2 artilleries and 1 infantry placed in New South Wales

Turn Complete - ANZAC
            ANZAC collect 6 PUs; end with 9 PUs
            Objective ANZAC 3 Pacific Supply Lines: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 12 PUs

triplea_42164_ANZ7.tsvg

[Giallo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 7

Purchase Units - ANZAC
            ANZAC buy 2 artilleries and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 3 PUs;

Combat Move - ANZAC
            1 submarine moved from 77 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from New South Wales to South Australia
            3 fighters moved from New South Wales to South Australia

Combat - ANZAC
            Battle in South Australia
                ANZAC attack with 3 fighters and 1 infantry
                Japanese defend with 1 infantry
                    ANZAC roll dice for 3 fighters and 1 infantry in South Australia, round 2 :  0/4 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in South Australia, round 2 :  0/1 hits
                    ANZAC roll dice for 3 fighters and 1 infantry in South Australia, round 3 :  3/4 hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in South Australia, round 3 :  1/1 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the ANZAC lost in South Australia
                ANZAC win with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - ANZAC
            3 fighters moved from South Australia to New South Wales

Place Units - ANZAC
            2 artilleries and 1 infantry placed in New South Wales

Turn Complete - ANZAC
            ANZAC collect 6 PUs; end with 9 PUs
            Objective ANZAC 3 Pacific Supply Lines: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 12 PUs

Combat Move - French

Turn Complete - French

triplea_42164_Fre7.tsvg

[farmboy]

Weird. I checked it again (from your US combat move file) and still came up with 35% on a 20,000 run count. Are you sure you got 82%? I’m curious if the calculators are giving us different numbers.

@Giallo:

@farmboy:

UK had some good roles in Burma but you mean the US right. I had calculated gibraltar at 32% odds for you and you won with plenty of air to spare. Painful.

I had 82%

[farmboy]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 8

Research Technology - Germans

Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 2 artilleries, 4 fighters, 7 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Germans
            1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Ukraine to Western Ukraine
            1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
            1 bomber moved from Novgorod to Bryansk
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Ukraine to Tambov
            1 infantry moved from Ukraine to Bryansk
            1 infantry moved from Smolensk to Vologda
                  Germans take Vologda from Russians
            1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Archangel to Urals
                  Germans take Nenetsia from Russians
                  Germans take Urals from Russians
            1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Volgograd to Tambov
            2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
            1 infantry moved from Ukraine to Bryansk

Combat - Germans
            Germans creates battle in territory 125 Sea Zone
            Battle in Bryansk
                Germans attack with 1 bomber and 2 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 infantry in Bryansk, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Bryansk, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Bryansk
                Germans win, taking Bryansk from Russians with 1 bomber and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Western Ukraine
                Germans attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Western Ukraine
                Germans win, taking Western Ukraine from Russians with 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Tambov
                Germans attack with 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Tambov, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Tambov, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Tambov
                Germans win, taking Tambov from Russians with 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Rostov
                Germans attack with 3 artilleries and 6 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 3 artilleries and 6 infantry in Rostov, round 2 : 0/9 hits, 2.50 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Rostov, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 3 artilleries and 6 infantry in Rostov, round 3 : 1/9 hits, 2.50 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Rostov, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Rostov
                Germans win, taking Rostov from Russians with 3 artilleries and 6 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Germans
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Tambov to Caucasus
            1 bomber moved from Bryansk to Novgorod
            1 infantry moved from Belarus to Smolensk
            2 aaGuns, 3 artilleries and 8 infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
            7 mech_infantrys moved from Ukraine to Volgograd
            11 armour and 7 mech_infantrys moved from Ukraine to Caucasus
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Eastern Poland to Ukraine
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Germany to Eastern Poland
            3 fighters moved from Western Germany to Gibraltar
            1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Novgorod to Belarus
            9 armour moved from Ukraine to Volgograd
            2 armour moved from Ukraine to Caucasus

Place Units - Germans
            2 artilleries and 1 infantry placed in Ukraine
            3 infantry placed in Volgograd
            3 infantry placed in Novgorod
            2 mech_infantrys placed in Germany
            4 fighters placed in Western Germany
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from 119 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to 111 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

Turn Complete - Germans
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 0
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 125 Sea Zone. Rolls: 4,5
            Germans collect 63 PUs; end with 63 PUs
            Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 68 PUs
            Objective Germans 7 Control of Balkans: Germans met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 70 PUs
            Objective Germans 3 Control Caucasus: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 75 PUs
            Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 85 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -2.33
    Russians : -0.67

triplea_42164_Ger8.tsvg

[Giallo]

@farmboy:

Weird. I checked it again (from your US combat move file) and still came up with 35% on a 20,000 run count. Are you sure you got 82%? I’m curious if the calculators are giving us different numbers.

@Giallo:

@farmboy:

UK had some good roles in Burma but you mean the US right. I had calculated gibraltar at 32% odds for you and you won with plenty of air to spare. Painful.

I had 82%

Did you do amphibious

[farmboy]

I did and added the two cruisers and the Battleship.

[Giallo]

@farmboy:

I did and added the two cruisers and the Battleship.

Did you also scratched the box for an amphibious assault

[farmboy]

I did. I attached a screenshot too.

[farmboy]

It makes sense that it should be very close. Attack power is at 40 for each of us. I have one more unit and the AA and more units that always roll at 4 but you have the 3 amphibious shots. If we were rolling average, you would lose 1 fighter to my AA (dropping your attack power by 4 since a tac would lose its bonus) and I would lose both my AA to your amphibious. Then I should average 7 hits (dropping your attack power by 11) and you should average 6 (dropping mine by 12). That should leave me with a slight edge going forward. But if you are getting very different odds, than something is screwy with the calculator.

[Giallo]

I have completely different odds

[farmboy]

Woah, weird. I’ll post a message in the league discussion thread to see if anyone knows how this happens.

[farmboy]

What version of triple a are you using? that difference might also explain it.

[Giallo]

1.9

[farmboy]

Mine is the 1.9009687. I’m not sure if you mean that too since there are a few 1.9s. Posted a message in the league thread so maybe someone there has an idea.

[simon33]

@Giallo:

1.9

I think you should upgrade your Triple-A. There have been a couple of bugs with the calculator. There is no way that this battle should be >80%. I get 56% on build 8281, which I think is about right. 35% on build 9687. Looks like there’s a bug which has been reintroduced in the most recent build.

[simon33]

Actually, maybe 35% is about right! Just put in something similar into the website calculator