Farmboy (Axis +4) vs Giallo (Allies) BM

[farmboy]

Weird. I checked it again (from your US combat move file) and still came up with 35% on a 20,000 run count. Are you sure you got 82%? I’m curious if the calculators are giving us different numbers.

@Giallo:

@farmboy:

UK had some good roles in Burma but you mean the US right. I had calculated gibraltar at 32% odds for you and you won with plenty of air to spare. Painful.

I had 82%

[farmboy]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 8

Research Technology - Germans

Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 2 artilleries, 4 fighters, 7 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Germans
            1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Ukraine to Western Ukraine
            1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
            1 bomber moved from Novgorod to Bryansk
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Ukraine to Tambov
            1 infantry moved from Ukraine to Bryansk
            1 infantry moved from Smolensk to Vologda
                  Germans take Vologda from Russians
            1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Archangel to Urals
                  Germans take Nenetsia from Russians
                  Germans take Urals from Russians
            1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Volgograd to Tambov
            2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
            1 infantry moved from Ukraine to Bryansk

Combat - Germans
            Germans creates battle in territory 125 Sea Zone
            Battle in Bryansk
                Germans attack with 1 bomber and 2 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 infantry in Bryansk, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Bryansk, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Bryansk
                Germans win, taking Bryansk from Russians with 1 bomber and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Western Ukraine
                Germans attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Western Ukraine, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Western Ukraine
                Germans win, taking Western Ukraine from Russians with 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Tambov
                Germans attack with 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Tambov, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Tambov, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Tambov
                Germans win, taking Tambov from Russians with 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Rostov
                Germans attack with 3 artilleries and 6 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 3 artilleries and 6 infantry in Rostov, round 2 : 0/9 hits, 2.50 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Rostov, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 3 artilleries and 6 infantry in Rostov, round 3 : 1/9 hits, 2.50 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Rostov, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Rostov
                Germans win, taking Rostov from Russians with 3 artilleries and 6 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Germans
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Tambov to Caucasus
            1 bomber moved from Bryansk to Novgorod
            1 infantry moved from Belarus to Smolensk
            2 aaGuns, 3 artilleries and 8 infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
            7 mech_infantrys moved from Ukraine to Volgograd
            11 armour and 7 mech_infantrys moved from Ukraine to Caucasus
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Eastern Poland to Ukraine
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Germany to Eastern Poland
            3 fighters moved from Western Germany to Gibraltar
            1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Novgorod to Belarus
            9 armour moved from Ukraine to Volgograd
            2 armour moved from Ukraine to Caucasus

Place Units - Germans
            2 artilleries and 1 infantry placed in Ukraine
            3 infantry placed in Volgograd
            3 infantry placed in Novgorod
            2 mech_infantrys placed in Germany
            4 fighters placed in Western Germany
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from 119 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to 111 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

Turn Complete - Germans
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 0
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 125 Sea Zone. Rolls: 4,5
            Germans collect 63 PUs; end with 63 PUs
            Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 68 PUs
            Objective Germans 7 Control of Balkans: Germans met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 70 PUs
            Objective Germans 3 Control Caucasus: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 75 PUs
            Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 85 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : -2.33
    Russians : -0.67

triplea_42164_Ger8.tsvg

[Giallo]

@farmboy:

Weird. I checked it again (from your US combat move file) and still came up with 35% on a 20,000 run count. Are you sure you got 82%? I’m curious if the calculators are giving us different numbers.

@Giallo:

@farmboy:

UK had some good roles in Burma but you mean the US right. I had calculated gibraltar at 32% odds for you and you won with plenty of air to spare. Painful.

I had 82%

Did you do amphibious

[farmboy]

I did and added the two cruisers and the Battleship.

[Giallo]

@farmboy:

I did and added the two cruisers and the Battleship.

Did you also scratched the box for an amphibious assault

[farmboy]

I did. I attached a screenshot too.

[farmboy]

It makes sense that it should be very close. Attack power is at 40 for each of us. I have one more unit and the AA and more units that always roll at 4 but you have the 3 amphibious shots. If we were rolling average, you would lose 1 fighter to my AA (dropping your attack power by 4 since a tac would lose its bonus) and I would lose both my AA to your amphibious. Then I should average 7 hits (dropping your attack power by 11) and you should average 6 (dropping mine by 12). That should leave me with a slight edge going forward. But if you are getting very different odds, than something is screwy with the calculator.

[Giallo]

I have completely different odds

[farmboy]

Woah, weird. I’ll post a message in the league discussion thread to see if anyone knows how this happens.

[farmboy]

What version of triple a are you using? that difference might also explain it.

[Giallo]

1.9

[farmboy]

Mine is the 1.9009687. I’m not sure if you mean that too since there are a few 1.9s. Posted a message in the league thread so maybe someone there has an idea.

[simon33]

@Giallo:

1.9

I think you should upgrade your Triple-A. There have been a couple of bugs with the calculator. There is no way that this battle should be >80%. I get 56% on build 8281, which I think is about right. 35% on build 9687. Looks like there’s a bug which has been reintroduced in the most recent build.

[simon33]

Actually, maybe 35% is about right! Just put in something similar into the website calculator

[farmboy]

Thanks Simon.  I think 35% is probably close to the right odds. It was just strange to have two calculators giving such different numbers.

[Giallo]

I have 7398, I will upgrade

[Giallo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 8

Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 1 artillery and 9 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Russians
            1 infantry moved from Samara to Kazakhstan
            21 artilleries moved from Russia to Tambov
            32 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
            2 armour and 2 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
            5 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
            3 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
            2 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Russia to Tambov
            1 infantry moved from Russia to Samara
            1 infantry moved from Russia to Vologda
            1 fighter moved from Russia to Vologda
            2 infantry moved from Russia to Bryansk
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Russia to Bryansk
            1 infantry moved from Russia to Smolensk
            1 fighter moved from Russia to Smolensk

Combat - Russians
            Russians creates battle in territory 125 Sea Zone
            Battle in Vologda
                Russians attack with 1 fighter and 1 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Vologda, round 2 :  0/2 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Vologda, round 2 :  0/1 hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Vologda, round 3 :  1/2 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Vologda, round 3 :  0/1 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Vologda
                Russians win, taking Vologda from Germans with 1 fighter and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
            Battle in Smolensk
                Russians attack with 1 fighter and 1 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Smolensk, round 2 :  0/2 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Smolensk, round 2 :  1/1 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Smolensk
                retreated to Smolensk
                Germans win with 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Bryansk
                Russians attack with 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Germans defend with 2 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Bryansk, round 2 :  2/4 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 2 infantry in Bryansk, round 2 :  1/2 hits
                    2 infantry owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Bryansk
                Russians win, taking Bryansk from Germans with 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Tambov
                Russians attack with 2 armour, 21 artilleries, 44 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys
                Germans defend with 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 2 armour, 21 artilleries, 44 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys in Tambov, round 2 :  23/69 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry in Tambov, round 2 :  1/2 hits
                    1 mech_infantry owned by the Germans, 1 armour owned by the Germans and 1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Tambov
                Russians win, taking Tambov from Germans with 2 armour, 21 artilleries, 43 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                Casualties for Germans: 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Russians
            1 aaGun moved from Russia to Tambov
            1 fighter moved from Smolensk to Russia
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Bryansk to Russia
            1 fighter moved from Vologda to Russia
            2 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
            1 aaGun moved from Russia to Tambov
            1 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
            1 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov

Place Units - Russians
            1 artillery and 9 infantry placed in Russia

Turn Complete - Russians
            Russians collect 17 PUs; end with 17 PUs
            Trigger Russians 7 Great Patriotic War: Russians met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 20 PUs
            Trigger Russians 2 Persia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 22 PUs

triplea_42164_Rus8.tsvg

[farmboy]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.3

Game History

Round: 8

Purchase Units - Japanese
            Japanese buy 4 artilleries, 1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 3 infantry, 1 marine, 2 mech_infantrys and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens;

Combat Move - Japanese
            1 destroyer and 1 fighter moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 6 Sea Zone to 25 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Amur to Buryatia
                  Japanese take Buryatia from Russians
            1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Anhwe to Hopei
            1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Shantung to Kweichow
            2 infantry moved from Japan to 6 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 6 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Hunan to Hopei
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Hunan to Kweichow
            1 artillery moved from Yunnan to Burma
            1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Burma
            2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from 38 Sea Zone to Burma
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from French Indo China to Burma
            2 bombers moved from French Indo China to Burma
            2 fighters moved from Hunan to Burma
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from French Indo China to 36 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands

Combat - Japanese
            Battle in Caroline Islands
            Battle in 25 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber
                Americans defend with 1 destroyer
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                    Americans roll dice for 1 destroyer in 25 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the Americans lost in 25 Sea Zone
                Japanese win, taking Caroline Islands from Americans with 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer
            Battle in Burma
                Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 2 bombers, 5 fighters, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
                British defend with 2 artilleries and 1 infantry
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 2 bombers, 5 fighters, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers in Burma, round 2 : 8/12 hits, 6.50 expected hits
                    UK_Pacific roll dice for 2 artilleries and 1 infantry in Burma, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Japanese, 2 artilleries owned by the British and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Burma
                Japanese win, taking Burma from UK_Pacific with 1 artillery, 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
                Casualties for British: 2 artilleries and 1 infantry
            Battle in Hopei
                Japanese attack with 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Chinese defend with 1 infantry
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Hopei, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                    Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Hopei, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Hopei, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                    Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Hopei, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Hopei
                Japanese win, taking Hopei from Chinese with 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
            Battle in Kweichow
                Japanese attack with 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
                Chinese defend with 1 infantry
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Kweichow, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                    Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Kweichow, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Kweichow
                Japanese win, taking Kweichow from Chinese with 1 armour, 1 mech_infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Japanese
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Kweichow to Yunnan
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Hopei to Yunnan
            1 fighter moved from French Indo China to 33 Sea Zone
            3 carriers, 1 destroyer and 1 fighter moved from 6 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
            1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 25 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from French Indo China to Shan State
            1 armour moved from Anhwe to Yunnan
            1 infantry moved from Shantung to Anhwe
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 marine moved from Manchuria to 19 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 battleship, 1 infantry, 1 marine and 2 transports moved from 19 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 marine moved from 36 Sea Zone to French Indo China
            1 battleship moved from 38 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
            2 carriers moved from 38 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer and 1 transport moved from 38 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
            4 fighters moved from Burma to Yunnan
            1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Burma to French Indo China
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Burma to Yunnan
            2 bombers moved from Burma to French Indo China

Place Units - Japanese
            1 carrier and 1 destroyer placed in 6 Sea Zone
            1 submarine placed in 37 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Malaya
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 marine placed in French Indo China
            2 artilleries and 1 infantry placed in Queensland
            2 mech_infantrys placed in Shantung

Turn Complete - Japanese
            Japanese collect 64 PUs; end with 65 PUs
            Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 68 PUs
            Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 73 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans : -0.33
    Chinese : -1.00
    UK_Pacific : 0.00
    Japanese : 1.00

triplea_42164_Jap8.tsvg

[Giallo]

I need some more time, important round

[farmboy]

No problem