G40 League House Rule project

[DarthMaximus]

I haven’t looked at the map in a while but EB probably had a slight lead.

[Tyzoq]

I’m sorry I missed the interesting discussion on bid amount and the greatness of the Axis.  I suppose I’ll throw in my $0.02.

I was going to run a statistical analysis on the data using JMP software, however, I noticed something odd right away as I was inputting the data…  When the bid is exactly $9 the Allies win more than 50% of the games!

I counted 50 games with a bid of 8 or less of which the Axis have won 38 giving a whopping 76% victories by the Axis

I counted only 27 games in which the bid was 10 or more of which the Axis won 19 (70%)

However when the bid is exactly 9 I counted 36 total games of which the Axis only won 17 only 47% victories by the Axis.

Clearly it you want to win as the alliance you should bid 9 and no higher! (having too many units will only confuse you)!
Okay back to being serious… the relevant data seems to be that with bids of 9 or above the Axis win percent is 57%.  Still a pretty good win percentage but (In my opinion) not extreme enough to conclude the bid should be 12-15.

attached is the data I used, color coded for my convenience.

2012 Axis vs Allies.xls

[DarthMaximus]

Interesting.  One thing I will say about the 9 bid compared to higher is the higher bids can be a bit more exotic (ie ftr, bom, or sub bids) whereas 9 seems like an obvious 3 inf somewhere bid.

I usually like to get more units on the board in bids, perhaps these numbers might show this???
For example maybe a 9 bid with 3 inf is better than a 10 bid for a ftr.

Placement is also a huge factor in bids.  I wonder how “all bid to Egy” does?  I typically will split between Egy and Russia but maybe its better to just stack one or the other.

I wonder how the sub (ind) or ftr (bury) bids do?

[Tyzoq]

I ran several statistical analysis of the data using a value of 1 point for axis victory and 0 for ally victory.  I found that the mean for all games with a bid of 9 or higher is not significantly greater than .5.  I also found that the mean for games with a bid of 10 or higher is significantly greater than .5.  And the mean for games with a bid of 11+ is not significantly greater than .5 (this is partly because there are not as data points).

@DarthMaximus:

Interesting.  One thing I will say about the 9 bid compared to higher is the higher bids can be a bit more exotic (ie ftr, bom, or sub bids) whereas 9 seems like an obvious 3 inf somewhere bid.

That is a good thought I had thought of another interpretation, that stronger players are more likely to play with a bid of 9 than a bid of 10.  (but I think I like yours better it it is true)

One problem with the data is that it is not sufficiently randomized, there is more data for those that play more games, and less for those that play less.

[666]

wouldn’t you think a 12 bid of two brit ss in z12 would be too much for the axis to bear? It would force G to attack EGY to kill the B fgt, no? It might also make the destruction of the B DD & CA in z 12 such a priority that the G send both atl ss to z12.

Still haven’t found anyone willing to give me the allies +12.  :wink:

[gamerman01]

Updated (1940 result)

2012 League standings.xls

[souL]

@JWW’s sub build–not putting a unit in Egy causes its death more often than not.  The long-ranging problems of German tanks running through Africa often causes a VERY quick Russian death, especially when they didn’t receive any of the bid.  That FTR dies what… 65% of the time when it’s unbolstered in Egy?  Just +3 saves its life and moreover the Global Empire bonus (along with Egypt’s +2 bonus and lower Africa’s amnesty against marauding panzers).

ftr nwe/ftr ger to 12 to attempt to take down the surface ships.  clear 2 with your subs and nwy ftr.  Ita fleet’s chances are alright with 10 punch and a free hit against only 8, sneak attacks or not.  Not to mention the allies are risking their entire bid on this and it has a high probability of failure.  If you’re looking for potential brokenness with +12… bmb bry and going bmb against dd in 51 is the way to go, or if you’re looking to build 2 subs with gbr–35 is a good spot.  Japan has a much more difficult time with allied subs than euro.  also sub 6 is a cheap way to deter a german fleet build (thinking of one extremely talented player in general :)).

I wonder if +15 could produce a problem:  Is ‘IC ind’ broken?

Also 19-21 could be absolutely hellish on the European axis.  12-15 could be bad enough.  Above 14–stacking egy could cause problems.  So many good combos… ftr/arm egy, 2 inf art arm egy, and my personal favorite is 3 arm egy.

Darth–I’ll give you +11.

[gamerman01]

Terrific analysis, SouL, and I agree pretty much completely.

Decided to wait for someone else to answer JWW’s 2 subs to 12 challenge, and I’m glad I did.

[gamerman01]

Updated with a few more G40 results

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

SouL straightens out the rankings a bit, by pounding Dizz and siezing control of spot #5 from him.  :-)

And the Allies take it on the chin (with +11) yet again.

Updated

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

Updated

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

Updated

2012 League standings.xls

[gamerman01]

Updated

Playoff entrants highlighted (assuming no more results tonight that would change it)

Yoshi
Tyzoq
Darth Max
SouL

2012 League standings.xls

[DarthMaximus]

I actually got bumped up to the 14+ league.  I’d be fine playing in the regular one but that would sort of be rewriting the rules as we go.  Unless all the other 14+ players didn’t want to play in the playoffs.

Technically it’d be

8-13
Yoshi
Tyzoq
SouL
JWW

14+
DM
OBG
LL
DJen

[Yoshi]

OBG left the area…

[Battlingmaxo]

I just thought I would share my experience with allied bids. I have been playing (losing) with the allies almost exclusively for the last 2 years against quality opponents. The bids have ranged from 6-21. I should preface this with the statement that if the axis has good dice on the first few turns the bid is irrelevant. I’m a firm believer in stacks make might so if you’re awarded a large bid (15+) it probably pays to place all with 1 country (minus an infantry to egypt)  eg 4 infantry to karelia /caucases/ belarus/india or all egypt than spreading them piecemeal. It also depends on your style and should complement your strengths (eg if you play a solid russia and are weaker with coordinating the allies your bid should go to them) I’m not so sure if you should alter your bid based on your opponents style ( in my recent loss to Dutchman I placed my 14 bid soley in Russia even though I know he’s extremely efficient with Japan )  I contained Japan initially by going 70-30 Pacific with Dirk being a little short on land pieces contending with my naval builds but by Rd 7-8 the outcome was clear…I probably needed to go all Pacific so I could go on the offensive there rather than feint but I’m not convinced that would carry the day either. Many players choose 3inf for a 9 bid…probably not enough for a static defense…inf/sub  art/arm may provide better possibilities.

[DarthMaximus]

@Yoshi:

OBG left the area…

Right, but technically he qualified. � I wasn’t sure if I should ignore it or not, so I just included him.

[gamerman01]

JWW is not interested in the playoffs.

Without OBG, you’re getting down to 3-12 Billy to round out your 4.  LL is 5-10 and dJensen is 4-10.

Just suck it up and play with the big boys, DM  :lol:

[DarthMaximus]

@Gamerman01:

JWW is not interested in the playoffs.

Without OBG, you’re getting down to 3-12 Billy to round out your 4.  LL is 5-10 and dJensen is 4-10.

Billy is MIA as well so it’ll be the 4 listed.  LL hasn’t logged on since the 18th so he may be busy as well.  Right now I’ll proceed with both since they are in the rules (people may have played their season based on it.  IE play tons of games.  So I can’t change in the middle of the year).  If they all wish to not participate, then I can play with the others.
I PM’d the effected players to see if they wish to continue should they make the playoffs.  We’ll see.

I should have left some sort of opt out clause in the rules.

@Gamerman01:

Just suck it up and play with the big boys, DM  :lol:

The trash talker in me would say the Big Boys play more than the minimum amount of games.  Call me when they play 14-15+ games and win 85% of them.   :-D

[gamerman01]

Sounds good!