I agree with Gamer that good/bad rd 1 dice can be more important than a bid, but I do think bids can be pretty influential.
Recently I’ve been doing more heavy Russian bids (only 1 unit to Egy). Maybe I’m tempting fate by giving Ger the option to attack, but IMO its not a great risk for Ger so I’m fine with it. And if I can get away with holding Egy with only 1 inf then great. IMO, Europe is the bigger initial threat to the Allies, so I like to set up Russian counters and make sure Ger/Ita can’t set up the can-opener threat.
Actually let me expand on that a bit.
1 inf to Egy is enough IF you have at least a 10 bid (1 inf, 1 rt to Russia).
I wouldn’t go 1 inf to Egy, if I only had 6, at that point you might as well just put 2 inf there.
That said, I’d never bid 6 nowadays.
If you are getting double digit bids, you can get away with 1 inf to Egy because you can put pressure more directly on the Axis elsewhere. Which is why I like some variation of:
1 inf Egy, 2-3 units to Russia (bid range 10-14) to be placed on Bel and/or Euk.
You need at least 1 additional attacking unit for Russia (rt or arm) but I prefer two so I’ve been bidding 11+ for 2 rt to Russia 1 inf to Egy. That said I’ll gladly take more.
In this case I’m perfectly okay with Ger taking the shot at Egy and if they don’t I saved Egy with minimal reinforcements.
The reason I’m okay with it is:
1) I’ve been in games like the one Gamer describes with Yoshi, and it is much worse dealing with a larger Axis presence in Afr. I’d rather have the troops thinned out and picking them off with the Safr/Trj/Per/Ind troops. It seems regardless of bid to Egy (all units bid to Egy), if the Axis want North Afr they can probably have it.
2a) It encourages Germany to use the bomber here and not in Sz 2
2b) Perhaps forces a lighter attack on Sz 12 as well, maybe only two ftrs, so you should be able to kill at least 1 G ftr on G1
3) If they don’t use the bomber, they risk some real bad losses.
4) If Ita does clean up, I’d rather them have it then Ger, and I’d still have my Uk ftr and would killed the G trn.
5) Finally, the worst case for Ger can be really bad - they bring the bom and get slaughtered in Egy (retreat planes) doing minimal damage, they lose Sz 2 (or fail to kill the trn) as a result and lose a ftr (or two) in Sz 12 really putting them on the defensive as they now have to deal with the Russian bid units and UK already with 2 trns.
The downside is as, Gamer points out, Ger gets lucky and takes it.
But what did you really lose? 1 extra inf. Again, as Gamer points out round 1 dice rolls can have more of an impact and that 1 inf can be made up by any number of dice rolls throughout the game. As long as the rest of your bid was well placed you’ll be fine.
That said I don’t think it is bad to place two (or more units) to Egy, I just prefer having additional help for Russia.