Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB

[surfer]

I also don’t like losing 4 inf. But they are “saving” the tanks and mob inf in Karelia. He can’t occupy Belarus next round. You’ll gain 5+ fighters. So no immediate crisis for Russia. The units in Karelia can’t really get back, if he stacks Baltic States and moves up Italian tanks as expected. So play the game in front of you, take Finland and then Norway. Leave blockers when able to slow his advance, and collect the added IPCs. Should give you and extra turn or several depending upon how many fast movers he sends to take you down. That hopefully will give the Western front time to build.

[trulpen]

Ok, it’s bold, but consider the Russian turn finalized. We won’t let a little set-back deter us from the greater glory, right? No-one remembers a coward. Right? :grin:

(Intentionally referring to the beginning of this game were I got the cowardice mark on my forehead.)

[Saber25]

This was… interesting to say the least!

[AndrewAAGamer]

If I were Russia I would not have fought for Karelia and tried to save Novgorod for 1 Turn. It cost Russia 8 infantry to gain 5 fighters for the defense of Moscow and deny Novgorod to the Germans for one Turn. That is not a good trade. Also, now the Atlantic will be without 5 fighters which would have been very useful to attack the Atlantic Wall.

[AndrewAAGamer]

I should add Russia will gain $3 more so they can buy one of those infantry back.

[AndrewAAGamer]

Japan 3:
Is my capital safe? Since I am planning on abandoning SZ6 the US has a single infantry and single artillery attack. Next Turn they could add 4 fighters to that attack. I can easily counter that with my build.

So, India is certainly the primary objective; especially since it is weak. The issue is how to take it? I can move my fleet to SZ39 and save myself the cost of a Naval Base. The problem with that is then the US is free to do whatever they want and I have no counter. If I build the Naval Base then the transport in SZ6 not only joins the India attack but the IJN in FIC (SZ36) has complete reach into the entire main Pacific area. Therefore, the US has to take that into consideration for anything they do. Okay so I need a Naval Base, and an Air Base and I need to protect Tokyo.

Since the Russians are running away and I now have defenders in place I can go into Russia too.

[farmboy]

@AndrewAAGamer His situation is already difficult since he lost Gib in Round 1 and he urgently needs to maximize the Moscow defence for G6. So he has to take some gambles. What he has lost for a G6 Moscow battle is 3 inf, 2 tanks and a mech. He had 3 more inf in Leningrad that were going to be stranded anyway. With better dice, he would have only lost 1 inf that wasn’t already stranded. He gained 6 air which adds to the defence more than 3 inf, 2 tanks and a mech and which makes any strat bombing of Moscow risky (although less so in OOB than BM). This also makes it easier for the US and UK to get a foothold in Norway and while the fighters can reach Moscow for G5 to block the bombing, they can also reach 110 if it appears after G4 that Moscow has more time.

Denying you Leningrad for a turn also means you lose $7 and a G6 attack is $3 more expensive since you have to buy bombers and not tacs. I still probably would have only done Karelia and not tried to hold Leningrad, but the exchange may end up being closer. He just has to hope his blockers roll better.

[AndrewAAGamer]

@farmboy said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

@AndrewAAGamer His situation is already difficult since he lost Gib in Round 1 and he urgently needs to maximize the Moscow defence for G6. So he has to take some gambles. What he has lost for a G6 Moscow battle is 3 inf, 2 tanks and a mech. He had 3 more inf in Leningrad that were going to be stranded anyway. With better dice, he would have only lost 1 inf that wasn’t already stranded. He gained 6 air which adds to the defence more than 3 inf, 2 tanks and a mech and which makes any strat bombing of Moscow risky (although less so in OOB than BM). This also makes it easier for the US and UK to get a foothold in Norway and while the fighters can reach Moscow for G5 to block the bombing, they can also reach 110 if it appears after G4 that Moscow has more time.

Denying you Leningrad for a turn also means you lose $7 and a G6 attack is $3 more expensive since you have to buy bombers and not tacs. I still probably would have only done Karelia and not tried to hold Leningrad, but the exchange may end up being closer. He just has to hope his blockers roll better.

I am not sure I agree with that assessment. I agree he needs to maximize Moscow. What is better 7 infantry or 5 fighters?
And the fighters are not free. They reduce his Atlantic firepower.

If he was not trying to block Leningrad he would not have 4 infantry in the Baltic States and Belarus. He used 3 infantry in the Vyborg/Karelia attack plus lost another infantry by building 3 mechanized infantry instead of 3 infantry. I am assuming he can get the mech and two armor back to Moscow though he may not. Not sure how those numbers equal a better defense of Moscow even with the Germans out $10.

[AndrewAAGamer]

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Japanese round 3

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 1 airfield, 1 fighter, 1 harbour and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Politics - Japanese
        Japanese takes Political Action: Political Action Japanese To War With Russians
            Japanese succeeds on action: Political Action Japanese To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Japanese and Russians from Neutrality to War
            Japanese succeeds on action: Political Action Japanese To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Russians and Chinese from Neutrality to Allied
            Japanese succeeds on action: Political Action Japanese To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Russians and Dutch from Neutrality to Friendly

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 unit repaired.
        1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Kiangsi to 20 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 20 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from 36 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
        1 battleship moved from 42 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from 36 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
        2 fighters moved from 42 Sea Zone to Shan State
        1 infantry moved from Malaya to Shan State
        2 tactical_bombers moved from French Indo China to Shan State
        2 tactical_bombers moved from French Indo China to Kwangsi
        1 tactical_bomber moved from French Indo China to Shan State
        1 tactical_bomber moved from French Indo China to Kwangsi
        1 tactical_bomber moved from French Indo China to Shan State
        1 carrier moved from 42 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sumatra to 41 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 39 Sea Zone to Ceylon
        2 fighters moved from 37 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        2 bombers moved from French Indo China to 39 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 42 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Suiyuyan to Kansu
              Japanese take Kansu from Chinese
        1 infantry moved from Suiyuyan to Shensi
              Japanese take Shensi from Chinese
        1 infantry moved from Manchuria to Amur
              Japanese take Amur from Russians
        1 armour and 1 infantry moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone
        1 armour, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 42 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 armour and 1 infantry moved from 39 Sea Zone to Ceylon

    Combat - Japanese

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

[AndrewAAGamer]

Scramble SZ39? (I would recommend not to)

[farmboy]

@AndrewAAGamer I think it was a mistake for him to build the inf in Leningrad last turn as that stranded those units. But now that they are there, they cannot reach Moscow, so we can’t count them against the fighters in the defense of Moscow. The tanks and mechs might make it back since you are committed to the southern route but that is unlikely. Although they likely do trade against some of your other land units.

We can probably do a pretty good estimate of the odds in Moscow on this basis. If you take the stack that can reach Moscow on G6: 32 inf, 22 mech, 11 art, 16 tanks, 5 fig, 9 tac, and 6 bombers and you take what he can conservatively stack there:75 inf, 3 mechs, 3 art and 2 fighters + 1 tac you get 100% odds. If you add 4 British fighters and two tacs from the Middle East and India and the two allied bombers, you get 92% odds. If you add 5 more inf, 2 tanks and 1 mech (that would be saved had he not gone for Karelia and blocked Leningrad it goes down to 50%. However, if you take Leningrad and you can build an extra bomber your odds go up by about 10%. So you would end up at around 60%

With the 6 fighters instead of the Soviet land units (5 UK and 1 Fr fig) and holding Leningrad (which likely denies you another bomber) it goes to 40%. So there is a difference on G6 of about 20%.

I doubt you would attack with anything less than 90%+ odds, however, and I think you would have trouble maximizing the spending to hit Moscow with this much anyway (I’m assuming a 4 tac build this turn and 4-5 bomber build next turn which would be hard to sustain given the pressure that will be coming in the atlantic.) So that your odds are not yet high enough is an argument to have held back on landing the fighters in Karelia and plan on being able to send fighters either through Norway or the Med for a G7 or G8 attack. But he also has to worry about a strat bombing and its better if he can keep some air to contest Japan’s moves in India and potentially the Middle East. And small differences in the number of defending or attacking units can make a huge difference in what those odds are. If he couldn’t build 4 inf because of a successful strat bombing and 1 of those UK air in the mid east can’t reach Moscow your odds on G6 are almost back to 90%

You are definitely right that he also needs those air in the Atlantic. It is best if they are in Gib or London, but from Karelia they can at least still reach 110 and if he goes to Moscow they can still land in Norway on UK5. And since you are likely not in a position now to spend solely for an attack on Moscow, he can pull some of that air back on the subsequent turn.

Saying all that I think it probably would have been better to focus only on Karelia, give up on Leningrad and try to retreat everyone that he safely can. But he plans on making trouble for you in Scandinavia which, if Moscow lasts long enough, can end up being worth it too.

[trulpen]

@AndrewAAGamer said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

Scramble SZ39? (I would recommend not to)

Yes, of course no scramble. No need for discussion.

[AndrewAAGamer]

TripleA Turn Summary: Japanese round 3

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 1 airfield, 1 fighter, 1 harbour and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Politics - Japanese
        Japanese takes Political Action: Political Action Japanese To War With Russians
            Japanese succeeds on action: Political Action Japanese To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Japanese and Russians from Neutrality to War
            Japanese succeeds on action: Political Action Japanese To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Russians and Chinese from Neutrality to Allied
            Japanese succeeds on action: Political Action Japanese To War With Russians: Changing Relationship for Russians and Dutch from Neutrality to Friendly

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 unit repaired.
        1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Kiangsi to 20 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 20 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from 36 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
        1 battleship moved from 42 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from 36 Sea Zone to Kwangsi
        2 fighters moved from 42 Sea Zone to Shan State
        1 infantry moved from Malaya to Shan State
        2 tactical_bombers moved from French Indo China to Shan State
        2 tactical_bombers moved from French Indo China to Kwangsi
        1 tactical_bomber moved from French Indo China to Shan State
        1 tactical_bomber moved from French Indo China to Kwangsi
        1 tactical_bomber moved from French Indo China to Shan State
        1 carrier moved from 42 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sumatra to 41 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 39 Sea Zone to Ceylon
        2 fighters moved from 37 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        2 bombers moved from French Indo China to 39 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 42 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Suiyuyan to Kansu
              Japanese take Kansu from Chinese
        1 infantry moved from Suiyuyan to Shensi
              Japanese take Shensi from Chinese
        1 infantry moved from Manchuria to Amur
              Japanese take Amur from Russians
        1 armour and 1 infantry moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone
        1 armour, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 42 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 armour and 1 infantry moved from 39 Sea Zone to Ceylon

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in Ceylon
        Battle in Shan State
            Japanese attack with 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 4 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 4 tactical_bombers in Shan State, round 2 : 4/7 hits, 3.50 expected hits
                UK_Pacific roll dice for 1 infantry in Shan State, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Shan State
            Japanese win, taking Ceylon from UK_Pacific, taking Shan State from UK_Pacific with 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 4 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry
        Battle in Kwangsi
            Japanese attack with 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
            Chinese defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 battleship in Kwangsi, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Kwangsi, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Kwangsi
            Japanese win, taking Kwangsi from Chinese with 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1: Changing Relationship for Russians and Mongolians from Strict_Neutral to Friendly_Neutral
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1: Changing Relationship for Americans and Mongolians from Strict_Neutral to Friendly_Neutral
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1: Changing Relationship for British and Mongolians from Strict_Neutral to Friendly_Neutral
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1: Changing Relationship for UK_Pacific and Mongolians from Strict_Neutral to Friendly_Neutral
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1: Changing Relationship for ANZAC and Mongolians from Strict_Neutral to Friendly_Neutral
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1: Changing Relationship for Chinese and Mongolians from Strict_Neutral to Friendly_Neutral
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1: Changing Relationship for French and Mongolians from Strict_Neutral to Friendly_Neutral
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1: Changing Relationship for Dutch and Mongolians from Strict_Neutral to Friendly_Neutral
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1: Changing Relationship for Neutral_Allies and Mongolians from Strict_Neutral to Friendly_Neutral
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1 activates a trigger called: Trigger Allies Friendly With Mongolians
        Trigger Allies Friendly With Mongolians: Setting captureUnitOnEnteringBy to Americans:French:British:ANZAC:Chinese:Russians for territoryAttachment attached to Olgiy
        Trigger Allies Friendly With Mongolians: Setting captureUnitOnEnteringBy to Americans:French:British:ANZAC:Chinese:Russians for territoryAttachment attached to Dzavhan
        Trigger Allies Friendly With Mongolians: Setting captureUnitOnEnteringBy to Americans:French:British:ANZAC:Chinese:Russians for territoryAttachment attached to Tsagaan Olom
        Trigger Allies Friendly With Mongolians: Setting captureUnitOnEnteringBy to Americans:French:British:ANZAC:Chinese:Russians for territoryAttachment attached to Central Mongolia
        Trigger Allies Friendly With Mongolians: Setting captureUnitOnEnteringBy to Americans:French:British:ANZAC:Chinese:Russians for territoryAttachment attached to Buyant-Uhaa
        Trigger Allies Friendly With Mongolians: Setting captureUnitOnEnteringBy to Americans:French:British:ANZAC:Chinese:Russians for territoryAttachment attached to Ulaanbaatar
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 1 activates a trigger called: Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 2
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 2: Russians captures territory Olgiy
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 2: Russians captures territory Dzavhan
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 2: Russians captures territory Tsagaan Olom
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 2: Russians captures territory Central Mongolia
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 2: Russians captures territory Buyant-Uhaa
        Trigger Japanese Conquer Russians Territory By Mongolia 2: Russians captures territory Ulaanbaatar

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        2 bombers moved from 39 Sea Zone to French Indo China
        1 transport moved from 37 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 42 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 42 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 battleship, 1 carrier and 1 destroyer moved from 37 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        3 fighters moved from Japan to French Indo China
        2 fighters moved from Kwangsi to French Indo China
        3 tactical_bombers moved from Kwangsi to French Indo China
        2 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers moved from Shan State to French Indo China
        1 infantry moved from Japan to 6 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 6 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from Kiangsi to 20 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 20 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 36 Sea Zone to French Indo China
        2 carriers, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 6 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 36 Sea Zone to French Indo China
        2 fighters moved from 36 Sea Zone to French Indo China
        1 aaGun moved from Manchuria to Korea
        3 infantry moved from Manchuria to Amur
        1 infantry moved from Manchuria to Korea
        3 infantry moved from Jehol to Manchuria
        2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Hopei to Anhwe
        1 mech_infantry moved from Suiyuyan to Anhwe
        1 infantry moved from Hopei to Suiyuyan
        1 infantry moved from Hopei to Anhwe

    Place Units - Japanese
        1 airfield and 1 harbour placed in French Indo China
        1 fighter and 2 infantry placed in French Indo China
        3 infantry placed in Japan

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Japanese collect 56 PUs; end with 56 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese : -0.33
UK_Pacific : -0.33
Japanese : 0.83

Savegame

[trulpen]

Ok, folks, new big turn on the go! Give me your best!

[surfer]

Well, I guess I start it off … the good part of that is I get state the obvious wins

Italy backed out of W. Med defense, so our 14 troops will roll right in.
I would put 6 attackers on Gibraltar, should roll over – worst case lose 2 inf in attack so defending with 4. If Italy wanted that would be 40-60 attack using the tranny+bomber. If we did lose 2, I’d put a Brit fighter in Gib, just in case, because we don’t want G to have a landing spot for Luftwaffe.

The others land in Morroco, any fast movers especially to be able to roll onward…
The US bomber has 2 choices, relocate to UK for bombing next round, or on to Fiji and fight the Japanese. Because of the imminent fall of India, I’d vote for Fiji.
We could also move 1 of the CVs back to Pacific, but due to the planned exodus of Brit + french ftrs to Karelia -> Moscow, I would stay and let the Atlantic fleet firm up until more reinforcements arrive.
By staying in place, we can threaten to move up to Norway from Gibraltar, and force defensive buys by G

In the Pacific, taking Korea will just get crushed. as will any other main land acquisitions. However, the Philippines is a nice prize, and so is Java or Celebes. Borneo would normally be my first choice as it gives money to India, but since it won’t be around next turn they wont get to spend the money, and we would just be handing it to J. Sending Subs out to convoy is an option, but most likely J would just pick them off with DDs because he doesnt really need the DDs for defense of the fleet since his fleet is not in danger. Since our fleet is small compared to his, I’d rather keep the subs for now to use later to pick off transports. I like the US position in Caroline Islands for another turn while we wait for forces to arrive. J can’t threaten Australia in a meaningful way that we can’t defend.

That said, the US buy should be all Pacific–need CVs + ftrs + 1 trn and troops. Since Japan is going to India, we will get to take money islands, but need defenders to hold territory.–therefore CVs+ ftrs, vice subs and bombers, those can come later.
\

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

I don’t think there is much to do in the Pacific except stand and die in India. Make sure you don’t liberate Kwangtung this round. China might be able to get it next round if they move to Kwangsi this turn. I am sure Andrew would choose killing India over killing the Chinese stack since it is way bigger of a bonus.

Main American focus should be increasing pressure in Europe. You are doomed if you don’t open a second front there. Assume he will be adding 3 more bombers per round for the foreseeable future.

[surfer]

China. I’m a fan of take Kwangsi with everything and offer China over India to some Japanese aggression. Otherwise, just move north and expand

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@surfer I guess all we need in Kwangsi are two inf and the plane. The rest of the stack can go to Hunan. Buy Chinese art this round because the Burma road will get closed. I wish our China stack was further North so you could have hooked up with the Mongols. It will be a bunch of turns before they can do anything important.

[surfer]

Britain. Is purely a support play. Send transports to Morocco. Add ftr to Gib if necessary. Otherwise fly to Karelia, take out the G transport with bomber (unfortunately, neither the ftrs nor sub can) The subs on the Med have convoy duty.
The only attack will be 2 trans ports + air attack Brit. Somaliland to get UK NO bonus. Can grab Ethiopia as well. Return the 2 mob inf to India…
May want to consider keeping the ftrs + tac out of India. It’s a lost cause, but the TUV swing is +46 if they stay, and +35 if they leave (i.e., everybody dies so quickly the fighters don’t get to kill much) In fact, if they stay, you probably only get 1 (maybe 2) ftrs for your 3 air units.

[surfer]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris Curious about placing plane in Kwangsi. Offer up a sacrificial lamb to J? but I would think take that and get India still. Air blitz + 1 guy as they still have lots of overstrength for India.