China: Forgetting history dooms you to repeat it!

  • '12

    Awhile ago I started what I thought was an interesting thread on China and its relative position in the world vis-a-vis other highly ranked nations or one anyways.  I can’t seem to find it anymore and thought this related.  I have been following the recent rise of China and have wondered what has allowed it to succeed, but also wonder what potential pitfalls may lay in wait with their way of doing things.  State control has helped them in many ways, but control of information and history may be one of those pitfalls China may face.  With a new 10 year leadership panel in place (not new faces, a few less and a bit of a shuffle compared to the old group) we shall see what happens in the next decade.  Will it usher in the next decade as that of China’s or will the wheels fall off?

    Yang Jisheng: The man who discovered 36 million dead

  • 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 '14 '13 Moderator

    Glad you have resurrected your well researched thread.
    Enjoyed learning about that famine and I liked the 4 reasons why the book is called Tombstone.
    You say China’s leadership is voted in for 10 years? That is an awfully long time.

  • '12

    Quoting from memory so forgive any errors in facts.  I recall they have a leadership council of 9 which was just reduced to 7 a few days after the US elections.  During that process they elected a new ‘chairman’ of this council of now 7 and that person holds that position for 10 years.  By not having to face an election and only jockying for power every 10 years does allow for some long term plans to be put into place.  On the other hand, I wonder how much goes on in the background in order to secure support for you and your supporters.

  • 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 '14 '13 Moderator

    Thank you MrMalachiCrunch. We are used to 4-5 year terms, so 10 seems too long.
    I understand policies can be better implemented with time, but I think we do fine with our terms and reelection is common as we know.
    Have you any idea how easy it is too oust an individual or government, or is not done?

  • 2018 2016 '13 '12

    My expectation is that China will eventually move toward a more democratic government, developing a country and an economy is hard and democracy doesn’t make it easier.

    China’s GDP per capita now is about $US 8 000 per person. which is roughly where the USA was in 1920 and where western Europe was a few years later. There weren’t too many democracies back then. (US, Canada, UK, France and Aus/NZ and Holland are all that come to mind.) And if you look back at history, with the exception of the British colonies, democracy usually comes after a sizeable middle class can form. So China has a few more billions of dollars left to earn before the big wad in the middle feels comfortable enough to demand their rights. Plus the economy will get far too complex for the government to manage efficiently, but we have been seeing the market transition for a decade now.

  • '12

    Canuck, totally agree with you view.  I suppose that was what Nixon had in mind along with triangulating Russia and China.  It makes sense that a population that has a lot to lose will take more ownership in their politics.  If that doesn’t work and you believe in military answers, at least you now have a weakness in China that you can exploit.  in 1970 China didn’t really need much in the way of trade so had no weakness the west could exploit.  How do you attack a big blob that China was then, only with nukes so not workable.  Now with a GDP that requires vast imports of oil and other raw materials, you can hurt China without really killing them by blockades and boycotts.

  • 2018 2016 '13 '12

    Yeah, I suppose. If you want to talk geo-strategically. But the truth is everyone has an interest in the rise of China. They are powering the world economy. 9-10% growth for 20 years like clockwork, and look at Europe, Japan, Russia and the USA over those same 20… yikes! So weakening China through blockades or boycotts is in no-ones interest. Except maybe… Vietnam… if even that.

    There is no reason to challenge China and China will only challenge the status quo inasmuch as it can do so without upsetting it. Everyone benefits from a stable geopolitical system in today’s world. And everyone benefits from china eating up more raw materials and producing more and more goods (like General Tao’s Chicken).

    Sorry if that’s rehashed, I wasn’t a participant in the old topic.

  • '12

    Oh I agree.  Much better to have trade, a rising tide floats all boats……  I am not much of a conspiracy advocate but as a software developer, you have to account for EVERY contingency, Murphy’s Law.  If the attack looks too juicy I have to stand back a second and think “Am I killing his queen only to face checkmate in two?”.  I must tread carefully so this thread does not get ‘disappeared’ like some of my others.  Lets say you had a ‘company’ A1 that kept outsourcing jobs to another ‘company’ B2 while at the same time borrowing money from that same ‘company’ B2 in order to meet your financial obligations back home I mean back at the home office of ‘company’ A1.  One might think “Well that doesn’t seem very strategic”.  Stupid…or stupid like a fox?  What possible positive outcomes from that situation could A1 derive from this new relationship with B2?

    It’s probably best dealt with Occams Razor, it’s just the free market at work chasing the best return on the buck.  Probably.  It would be neat if it was part of a master plan however.

  • 2018 2016 '13 '12

    Hey, that movie sure sounds cooler than Red Dawn 2!

  • '12

    Prem #1 What if the debt held by B2 was in the form of stocks of A1.  A1 could depreciate their stock in exchange for benefits that would derive from the borrowed money from B2.  You in fact get all the benefits from the loan and screw the lender.

    Prem #2 B2 never required use of your patents called ControlledShippingLanes.  Now B2 requires use of this patent which A1 has spent a great deal of money investing in ‘lawyers’ and ‘updated patent modifications’ in order to defend the ControlledShippingLanes patent that most western companies require use of. Now that B2 now requires a ‘license’ to use the ControlledShippingLanes patent for various things, A1 now finds itself in a great position.

    It does make for an interesting movie premise doesn’t it?

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