@Gamerman01:
5/6 on defending 2’s - you continue to be charmed
And yes, defending 2 hit rate is a significant indicator of luck. In many battles, they are the only ones that matter.
OK, I went ahead and updated my records on AA and defending 2’s - didn’t take long.
As usual, the larger the sample size, the closer to average the results are. Defending 2’s are coming a little closer to odds.
Axis have faced a hit rate of .32867 on 143 attempts, which is almost exactly average.
Allies have faced a hit rate of .36771 on 223 rolls (largely because of horrific Russian offense allowing more defensive rolls), which is 8 hits above average (82 units lost compared to expected 74)
However, the Allies have enjoyed near AA immunity. The 2/5 US bombers lost on US11 were the only losses.
Losing 2 air after 28 shots is about 2.5 less aircraft then expected (plus they came more recently, which is less devastating than losing a German bomber on G6).
Axis lost 3 air on 17 shots, almost exactly average.
So for the Allies, the bad luck on defending 2’s has been offset by good luck on AA fire
For the Axis, losses to defending 2’s and AA fire both have been almost exactly average.
Conclusion - Sometimes we each feel like we’re getting hosed, but in fact when we have suffered bad luck for a turn or two, it has just been evening out our good luck. :-)
And now, back to our game in progress.
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (5)
