What do you make of the new Strategic Bombing rules?

[Der Kuenstler]

Actually rolling a “1” with 6 planes is harder than you think. There is a 66.51% chance you will roll a one when rolling 6 die, not 100% - check here:

http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm

I honestly don’t know why they don’t just leave the numbers alone for the one round of combat - simultaneous fire - so the fighter escorts would attack @ 3, interceptors defend @ 4, bombers defend @ 1. That would hurt something!

[knp7765]

In the latest Alpha+3 rules, Larry changed the SBR rules for escorts and interceptors. Both hit @ 1 but any hits made by the bombers and escorts simply go behind the casualty line and can still roll with the surviving interceptors.
In other words, if you have 3 interceptors and the attacking bombers and escorts hit 2 of them, you still get to roll for 3 interceptors. Difference is they only hit on a 1 now.
It’s anybody’s guess as to which is better.

[UrJohn]

@Der:

Actually rolling a “1” with 6 planes is harder than you think.

You’re mistaken.@Der:

There is a 66.51% chance you will roll a one when rolling 6 die, not 100%

You’re correct about this.@UrJohn:

on average.

I was referring to the statistical mean. As you pointed out, better than 1 time in 3 you get no hits, but you occasionally will get 2 hits, and you will rarely get 3-4 hits.

However, to get really, really close to that 1 hit average in practice, you’d need a large number of repetitions, and you’d have to have at least 6 defending units to be available to take as hits. The wasted unapplied hits from the rare times you get 5-6 hits on 6 dice versus 4 defenders actually slightly reduces your average number of hits taken by the defender, but 5+ 1s on 6 dice are rare enough that it’s too insignificant for this to even really merit discussion, worse than 1500:1. So, you really get around .9995 hits on average. I was just rounding to 1.

[Der Kuenstler]

@knp7765:

In the latest Alpha+3 rules, Larry changed the SBR rules for escorts and interceptors.

This game came out 10 months after that 10/10/11 post on his site, so it has changed again. That’s one thing that makes this game frustrating - it’s not like chess where the rules have been around for hundreds of years. The rules are still fluid and keep changing.

@UrJohn:

I was just rounding to 1.

Agreed!