@ErwinRommel:
Here is a open if allies choose a bad bid (destroyer or bid against japan)
Germany round one:
Buy 7inf and 2tnk or
2inf and 5tnk
CM:
attack karelia with 3inf art 4fighter and cruiser shot
odds 91% in dice, low luck its 100%
attack egypt with 2inf art 2tank bmb
odds 75win, 82% draw, if england rolls good round 1 retreat
attack zone 6 with sub
attack zone 9 two subs
attack baltic 3inf,art,tnk
attack EP inf,3tnk
attack ukraine 3inf,art,2,tnk
If you get seruis unlucky just pull out, no problem.
If your playing against very inexperienced players and its only a question of time before you win its okey do do a safer move…
While I think this deployment has promise if you want to play the odds and make a big gamble early, it’s too risky for my taste.
- SZ6 is only 50/50 with this deployment. You need the cruiser to be sure, but that would lower your Kar odds.
- SZ9 has decent odds of success but usa can counter the surviving subs USA1.
- Yes Kar is 89% to ‘win’, but the odds are only 76% that G survives with 2 or more units remaining, and 63% to survive with 3 or more units remaining. That means, 37% of the time G will lose either 3 inf art fig or 3 inf 2 fig. Or more. Not worth it imho, when you could have used that air to get expensive British naval units out of the game.
Since on average G will lose a fig to the aa gun anyway, Germany loses more ipcs in this exchange the majority of the time. Now if you add in the +7 ipcs you get for taking Kar, then that puts the balance back in G’s favor. However G has also sacrificed alot strategically…for example R can retake Kar R1 and then UK can destroy whatever you have left in Scandinavia on UK1. And G will be down 1-2 fighters, with the bulk of the Brit navy still intact.
- Egy is 25% to not work, and if G fails to kill that Egy fig they wont be able to ferry any more units to Africa.
IMHO this G1 has some statistical data in its favor but ultimately its a big gamble. If either Egy or Kar fail, then G will be vulnerable to KGF. In my experience playing TripleA live, I saw G1s like this alot, and very often one side or the other ends up surrendering after G1. If everything works Allies surrender, and if things go wrong Axis surrenders.
If Erwin’s larger point is that Allies are taking too big a risk if they don’t bid to Egy/Russia then I’m inclined to agree. The fact that you can make these attacks and all of them outside sz6 are favorable is a good argument that you have to place some bid units in Egy and/or Russia.
I don’t have to worry so much about it because I’m usually going to put that bid unit in Egy, which reduces G’s odds to 40%, meaning that if they went with the above deployment they’d be risking losing the Italy fleet on UK1 too.
