@Charles:
I don’t understand why you’re sending 6 planes to 109 and four to 111. 109 can manage four scrambling fighters. You only need five planes to make it a battle in your favor. If UK scrambles, it’s Sea Lion time. 111 needs the five planes though to be safe. I also fail to see how the TUV is in UK’s favor:
Sea Zone 109:
1 submarine, 2 fighters, 2 tactical bombers, 1 strategic bomber vs. 1 destroyer and 4 fighters:
CALC: three hits average both sides.
1 fighter, 1 tactical bomber, 1 strategic bomber vs 2 fighters
CALC: 2-1 hits average
Surviving: 1 German strategic bomber plus another plane. Even if the Germans lost all but one plane, a British destroyer and transport went down in exchange for a sub, making up for the slightly higher value of tactical bombers.
–This is three planes for four=battle in Germany’s favor. Of course the Allies could get lucky, but so could Germany.
One less bomber reduces your odds to 72% or thereabouts (average tuv swing of +10). If Allies don’t scramble, it’s an average swing of +13. So 28% of scoring a win G1. Maybe some players wouldn’t risk it, but I would scramble every time. Losing all the figs in 109 won’t prevent UK from consolidating 92, so even if Germany gets some lucky dice, a Sea Lion followup is not necessarily going to be easy.
Re. 111, with the extra bomber you have 96% with the scramble. I’d prolly scramble 109 against that deployment but the 111 scramble also changes the average swing from +30 to +25 (plus the 4% chance of winning the battle).