The chance of a perfect defense for UK in SZ 110 during the first round is only 5%. I am willing to take that risk as the Axis. Add in a 3% chance of a horrible outcome in France, along with a chance of a very bad SZ111 outcome, and a chance of a miserable Yunnan J1 outcome, and there is about a 15% chance of a major Axis setback during the first round. I am willing to take those odds and if Lady Luck is against me then try to figure out if a desperate Plan B can succeed.
With a risky SZ110 strategy, the Germans face a 30+% chance of having major losses just in that single battle. That is FAR different than a conservative G1 attack. The only reason that kind of probability is justified is if you are going against a superior player and you need incredible luck to swing the odds back into your favor. If there is someone close to my level of skill, I would never want to have that high of a probability to blow the game, especially since the upside of a good G1 is not nearly as significant as the downside of a bad G1.
My point isnt that you need to take huge risks but that even if you play good dice can screw you over.
And it does not have to be that obvious, consider a J1 attack, what if china hits 2 times in both combats. and the BB takes 2 units with it, and kwatung also hits 2 times, sure changes are not that great, but the battles themself are also not that big right, losing 1 or 2 extra inf isnt that bad. But they add up, having slightly worst luck during the game can still lose you the game.
Just those little bits of luck slow japan down for 1 or 2 rounds taking the money islands, giving UK and anzac anohter 15 and 8 income so suddenly India becomes harder to crach. Just a few bad dice 10% chance of it happening.
Im personaly a big fan of strafing 111 with the BB and doing 110 with overwhelming air. On average the UK is better of not to scramble as they trade their 3 planes vs my 3 planes which makes taranto a bigger risk. But isnt a choice and sometimes either side loses more then expected. Are 3 german planes traded for 2 UK and the french worth it if the odds of taranto drop from 90 to 70%?