@marshmallow-of-war said in Beating J1:
@arthur-bomber-harris I dunno, I’m in Andrew’s camp on this one. When you win by gambling big, you have to take a lot of big gambles and eventually one will not work out.
The Axis start with an advantage of approximately 40 PUs that would be necessary to balance the game. That bid leads to a benefit of about 30 additional PUs as the Scottish fighter can protect SZ111 and help counteract, African units can crush Italy, and other such leverage that you get from smartly placed pre-game units. By the end of the second round, a 40 PU initial bid should be well over 85 PU swing compared to a no-bid match. That type of two round swing is required just to balance the game to 50/50 odds.
How are you going to achieve that type of swing in a no-bid game? Obviously low skill by the opponent is one common way to do it as minor strategic mistakes can cause long-term damage. We saw that in the J1 match earlier where Japan didn’t attack Yunnan, failed to bring all of his units further south, and he failed to execute on a J3 or J4 India crush. Those mistakes were devastating.
For better players, the first two rounds are mostly scripted for the Axis. I can look up the standard play book for Japan and Germany and perhaps make a minor adjustment for bad dice luck for second round plans. Strategically there is little for the Allies to do in the first couple of rounds that would get the game back in balance. The next couple of rounds are even more scripted as Germany drives into Russia on G3-4 with no significant opposition, China gets inevitably crushed, and India turtles down in the capitol. A lucky minor battle can be a 10 point swing, but it is hard to get eight of those all in the Allies favor. Hence, the Axis probably has over 100+ PU advantage in a typical game by G5. People wont make egregious mistakes if using a battle calculator on turns 6-8. Good luck overcoming that Allies disadvantage with dice rolls! I will gladly demonstrate how easy it is to win for the Axis in a no-bid Forum match and I certainly am not a top-end player.
Hence, we get to the logical conclusion that the Allies must start taking high risks, and best to start doing it earlier in the game than later as PU advantages builds on itself. Take those 30% battles and see if the dice are in your favor. Strafe off those FIC troops with Indian fighters. Leave a stack in risk for the Axis to defeat it 70% of the time and dare them to attack. If your risky attacks fail, make even riskier attacks as your level of desperation is even higher. The goal is to win the game as Allies, not to force the match into additional turns by turtling down and avoiding risk.