Well since you have to take odds a 75% odds is pretty decent though.
The 25% when you lose is more devastating, cumulatively, than the 75% when you win. In the 75% when Allies win, Axis usually does well enough that Italy can easily mop up in 97 and avoid getting convoyed. The tuv loss to Axis can be small to none when we take the counter into account, although a successful 97 attack constrains Italy strategically. But in the 25% when Allies lose, that’s a devastating defeat for Allies and hard to recover from.
It’s hard for Allies to bring enough material that there isn’t a good argument for an Axis scramble. Still, if you bring 8-9 units (including the ac) then that might be scary enough that Axis won’t want to take the risk and prefer to wait till G2 for a (comparatively) low-risk counter.
If germany does 110 without the BB but with 1 sub 3 figs 3 tacticals 1 bomber they also got 80% of winning if the UK scrambles. Would you take the 20% odds as allies? Why would the axis take 20% odds and be considered smart.
Mostly yes, because the tuv exchange would be more favorable to Allies. But in some cases UK might need to hold back (especially if 111 is a better scramble option). There’s more upside to the 97 scramble with those odds because Axis wants to prevent the Allied convoy.