Basic Allied shipping options–Baltic vs. Barents?

[Jennifer]

I’m not saying that the SZ 5 fleet should be volunteered to be removed before game play.  It’s always nice to have equipment, even if you don’t need it.  After all, the SZ 5 fleet does provide fodder against the British for a round or two before they are sunk without loss to the English fleet.

However, I am saying that it is not financially optimal to augment the SZ 5 fleet with a carrier and tie up two fighters defending it IN EVERY GAME.  There are SOME games that I will.

One game that comes to mind is one where i got the fleet combined, then retreated it all to SZ 5.  Okay, now I have a battleship 3 submarines, destroyer and 2 transports.  That I’ll augment with a couple of carriers and some fighters because there is a LOT of units there, no matter what you attack me with, realistically, will get out of that battle without serious damage.  And that protects me from shore bombardments in Germany and forces the Allies to take W. Europe or E. Europe over land.

But that is a RARE game!

[Guest]

An augmented SZ5 fleet is not going to be killed “without loss” by either the UK or USA.  If both nations spend a lot of money on naval and/or air power, they may destroy it with MINIMAL losses, but it will not be without loss, unless Germany chooses to withdraw and/or suicide forces from the SZ5 fleet.

And so long as that fleet is alive, the Allies have to be aware of the potential for German landings in Karelia, Norway, AND LONDON (if the Allied Fleet is shuttling to SZ4, which is listed as one of the options in the original question in this thread).  And to support, as an example, a London landing, Germany can grab forces for their TRNs from Norway, Karelia, Eastern, Germany and Western WITHOUT MOVING.  And on follow-up attacks, they can re-land in London grabbing from the same territories.

That is a lot of available force, enough that the Allies have to garrison London to prevent a landing there by Germany.

And so long as the risk of a London landing is present, then the Allies cannot maximize their landings to Karelia/Archangel from SZ4.

Add in the options of blockading the Allied Fleet in SZ4 (by moving the German fleet to SZ3), or of strafing un-escorted TRNs in SZ4 with the Luftwaffe, and the Allies need to be VERy careful about exactly how they use their north Atlantic Allied fleets and available land units.

I have won several games over the past couple of years due to the Allies not paying enough attention to the risk to London from an existing SZ5 fleet…

[Jennifer]

I’ll sink the SZ 5 fleet without loss every time, Switch.

USA shows up with 3 battleships, 5 fighters and an assundry of surface ships and that fleet is GONE.  Unless, of course, you invest SERIOUS money into augmenting it, in which case, Russia will walk into Berlin uncontested.

And before you say it’s unrealistic to have 3 battleships with America, realize they start with one and can easily buy two more without serious damage to their shipping each round there-after resulting in Round 3 starting with 3 American Battleships.  Then it’s just a matter of putting two fighters on the board in Round 3 and on Round 4 Germany is looking at an America with:

2 Destroyers (Free)
3 Transports (Free)
1 Battleship (Free)
3 Fighters (Free)
1 Bomber (Free)

2 Battleships (48 IPC)
3 Transports (24 IPC)
2 Fighters (20 IPC)

In 4 Rounds that leaves 66 IPC for America to purchase ground units with.

Also, with movement taken into account you have:

SZ 55 to SZ 20 on Round 1 (2nd Battleship built)
SZ 20 to SZ 10 on Round 2 (3rd Battleship built)
SZ 10 to SZ 8 on Round 3 (2 Fighters built)
SZ 8 to SZ 6 on Round 4 (Everything in range of SZ 5)

Round 5 - Attack.

Notice, this is as fast as America can POSSIBLY move anyway.  And the battleships don’t lose their usefulness after sinking the German fleet because they can be used for bombardments or to provide free hits discouraging Luftwaffe attacks on the Merchant Marines.

Now, what does Frood say:

Defender: 2 Fighters, Destroyer, 2 Submarines, Transport, Carrier

vs

Attacker: 5 Fighters, Bomber, 3 Battleships, 2 Destroyers (no fodder transports brought)

50% No loss to Attacker
26% Loss of ONE Fighter to Attacker
18% Loss of TWO Fighters to Attacker

In other words, almost all the time there is NO LOSS to the attacker.  And, seeing as there is no escape from the attack for Germany, Germany will generally speaking pull his fighters to save them from certain death which means America will win without loss 92% of the time.

---

Now, that’s if you want to give it 5 rounds.  Honestly, I have no problem with that since England’s going to be landing troops every round those five rounds in Arkhangelsk anyway so the SZ 5 is impotent as a threat.

However, you COULD sink them with the British at high cost if you wanted too.

[Guest]

1.  I would be happy to have the US spending that kind of cash on naval units as Germany (and with them in the Atlantic I would be happy as Japan as well).
2.  I do believe that I posted about adding 2 naval units every 3 turns as Germany, which would ass 3 or 4 German units to the fleet compared to the forces you listed.

But I am not going to get into a minutia debate over odds and exact units 5 rounds in to the game.  Predicting THAT far ahead is beyond even Miss Cleo’s psychic abilities…  :-P

[Jennifer]

Well, as I said, those extra Americans really don’t detract from America’s war efforts in the ground war and are easily placed.  However, if Germany is adding two or three naval units a round, that’s a minimum of 16-24 IPC a round off their totals.  That means out of the expected 40 IPC they are making (up 4 in conquered lands, down 2 in Africa, down 2 for W. Russia) they’ll only have 16-24 IPC for ground units.  That’s about what Russia has for ground units and does not even take into account the 24-30 IPC England has coming in and the 30+ America is bringing.

So I’ll take that trade.  Sure, you’ll keep SZ 5 alive, but Germany will fall and then SZ 5 will be an isolated island of resistance.

[Guest]

Please stop mis-stating my words.

I said 2 naval units every 3 turns, not 2-3 every turn.

[Jennifer]

I apologize, it was not intended, I just misread what you said.

Anyway, that’s still a self-SBR run with no risk to the allies.  Presumably, your 2 to 3 NAVAL units (you stated navy, so I will assume that is not fighters for carriers, but ONLY navy units) is not doing you an offensive good and is not harming the Allies offensive good.

Granted on Round 3 it’s too late to change America’s decisions to put two new Battleships in the water, but that doesn’t mean I have to worry about killing the SZ 5 fleet.  As I’ve oft said, I think it is far superior to send at least the British to Arkhangelsk.  With a fleet building, I presume America would also go there if only to persuade Germany not to road block.  If the Germans were not building fleet units, I’d either sink them with the American fleet or focus on running Americans through Africa.

Honestly, I think UK to Arkhangelsk and USA to Algeria is the more superior method.  Mainly because it stops Japan from turning Persia into a strong hold and you build up British forces in and around Moscow to use liberating Evenki/Novosibirsk/Kazakh if you need too saving Russians for later.

[Guest]

The augmented SZ5 fleet is a mix of the initial AC purchase(plus land based FIGs moved out) and TRNs and possibly SUBs built after that.

The extra TRNs boost Germany’s trading power in Karelia and Norway, adding range to their INF purchases.

If UK is going to Archangel, then Germany maintains revenue for Norway (either by control of it or by trading), as well as trading revenue for Karelia.  So that is +5 IPC compared to a more traditional UK landing in Norway, then Allied control of Karelia.  Five IPC every round that Germany normally writes off is $15 every 3 turns… $1 shy of the naval spending every 3 turns.

The lost land units that are being transported are offset by the destroyed Allied units that are being killed in the trades.

If the US is coming north to go after the SZ5 fleet with those BB’s they bought, then Africa income is going to Germany, and staying with them for much longer… giving Germany revenue in the mid 40’s or greater.

And with that income, should I decide to make the US “pay” for SZ5 by adding an AC around G4 and moving 2 more FIGs out… I can afford it.

Regardless, by Turn 5 when the US finally makes a move on my fleet, Germany has collected around $200-$250 of income.  INF heavy buys, control of much of Africa, and preservation of initial ARM…  With $44 spent on navy (2 AC, 1 TRN, 1 SUB), that leaves nearly $200 to hammer Russia…  And Russia will have $125 to $150 over the same time frame…

[Jennifer]

Yea, I already worked into my assumptions that Germany was up 2 IPC for Karelia and up 2 IPC for something else somewhere, but down 2 IPC for Algeria and Libya and down 2 IPC for W. Russia.

With the US Fleet going north to stop Germany from playing roadblock, the American Air Force is going to go South to sink the German fleet and then move north again.

Meanwhile, the British Industrial Complex in S. Africa coupled with initial landings of troops by England and America (Round 1) in Algeria should pretty much eliminate all German resistance in Africa.

So by turn 5 you will have collected about 200 IPC +/- 20 IPC but you’ve spent 16 in Germany 1 and 24 in Germany 3 and probably another 12-16 on Germany 5 just to maintain enough presence to ensure you are not eliminated for negligible cost to America.  So that means you’ve actually put 144-148 IPC of units (Air/Land) into Europe.

Meanwhile, Russia’s put 127 IPC in Ground/Air units in those save 5 rounds. (Assuming Japan takes Buryatia on Round 1, Yakut and SFE on Round 2 and that Evenki/Novo/Kaz are at worst liberated each round by the allies.)

144 vs 127 is not exactly a significant improvement in the ground.  Not when you have to figure England’s only down India, Persia, Australia and New Zealand and most of that is recently lost.  That means England’s probably averaging about 24 IPC a round for 5 rounds, you figure 3 of those rounds are tanks in Africa (30 IPC) + 1 round of an industrial (15 IPC), and a carrier, transport in there some where, leaving them 51 IPC in ground units.

So in Euro-Asia Russia and England have added 178 IPC in ground units vs Germany’s 144 IPC in Ground Units.  That’s not including the troops America’s bringing in by that point. (USA to Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Trans-Jordan, Persia so by the end of Round 5 America can have troops ready to walk into Caucasus.)  Or USA goes to England then lands them in Arkhangelsk later in Karelia directly.

Any way I look at it, there’s no winning scenario for Germany.  They just cannot produce enough equipment, given normal dice results, to win with a SZ 5 fleet build.  They either lose the fleet for next to no loss or they are forced into spending so much on fleet that they get stalemated by the Allies in very short order.

Anyway, your assumption of Africa is off.  As I said, with the IC in S. Africa + American landings or even just initial allied landings + IC in S. Africa there’s not much chance Germany’s holding Africa for more then a round, and even then, it’s only a few territories.  Unless they put significant investments into the Med fleet and/or tie up fighters to stall the allies.  In which case the allies will actually have to fight for it, but Russia will be much more liberated to exploit the German countryside.

Any hope of Germany staying in the mid-40s after round 3 is a lost cause.  After round 3, Germany’ll be lucky if they get into the 40s, but should be ready to expect incomes in the upper 30s.

And no, the Japanese fleet will NOT be able to take out the IC in S. Africa.  I’ve got a good 3 counters to any Japanese aggressions there, I can chose what suits the situation best.  But suffice it to say, there’s no hope for Japan.  It’s never been done in any game I’ve put a complex in.  Well, not before England itself falls.

[666]

IMHO the baltic/sz5 shipping option is clearly the best route to take.

Allies then threaten everything vital to Germany including Germany major itself. It may take 1-2 turns longer to solidify this shuck from a possible successful German air assault but it effectively stops the german advance and all Russian strength can turn East if needed.

W/respect to helping MOS, Brit & US armor can land in MOS at the same time once dropped in LEN from the sz5/Baltic shuck vs the Barent’s shuck into ARC so you really don’t lose much there.

[Amon-Sul]

@JWW:

IMHO the baltic/sz5 shipping option is clearly the best route to take.

Allies then threaten everything vital to Germany including Germany major itself. It may take 1-2 turns longer to solidify this shuck from a possible successful German air assault but it effectively stops the german advance and all Russian strength can turn East if needed.

W/respect to helping MOS, Brit & US armor can land in MOS at the same time once dropped in LEN from the sz5/Baltic shuck vs the Barent’s shuck into ARC so you really don’t lose much there.

then, after all we ve been discusing here

the Baltic carrier almost has no alternative

[Raunchy The Pirate]

Ahhhhhhhh, it’s been awhile since I have replied to a specific option.
The most important question……WHAT ARE THE VICTORY CONDITIONS?
If you don’t have to reach a foreign shore to win, then navy be damned!
If you need a navy to reach the victory city, then axis better start early and protect.
Allies respond to what the axis need to do, and where they are focused, and be prepared to respond to either the Baltic or Barents sea.

[Guest]

Carriers are a DEFENSIVE purchase for the most part…

They serve to protect either your fleet, or by default your shores, from enemy landings.

Thus the Graf Zeppelin is a German DEFENSIVE move.

[Amon-Sul]

@ncscswitch:

Thus the Graf Zeppelin is a German DEFENSIVE move.

:? :?

[xenon]

And as in KGF Germany has to hold out (defend) while Japan developes it is a good buy?
I´m for this AC because I donnot see it as defensive only:
The offensive benefit of the AC is that it increases your fighter´s range. You may bring up to 4 of them into range- shuffling them. And this is the support you need to offer a real threat to early allied action. You will want to burn the for now superior baltic fleet to sink the allied ones. 4 fighters and a bomber have a pretty punch.
T1 UK has no other choice than landing in Algeria with the US or wait.
On G2 the baltic fleet could  be moved to SZ 6 to threaten every SZ around Britain and
the algerian cost as well as the norwegian.

[Mazer Rackham]

I have attached a map of pickup and drop zones in the North Atlantic from a US perspective.  You have to remember that if your Eastern fleet is dropping into Archangel or Karelia from Z04 then you can’t get to the Baltic in one move.  You are stuck with going to Norway or WEU for a turn before moving to the Baltic.

The Baltic is generally preferable, though not always possible.

BTW - This is from Caspian Sub’s paper on US shipping (Paper #2).  http://games.groups.yahoo.com/group/Caspian_Sub/

Peace