@Cow:
In europe alone. I full scramble round 1 with UK. You still have enough to sink Italy. Especially if you have a sub for your bid.
UK goes full middle east. A bunch of air comes to Russia. I am not too worried about sea lion since UK 1 is 9 inf or 6 inf 1 fighter.
Chances are you will cut into Germany’s air units scrambling from UK. So it is not too bad. Even if you are playing low luck you generally get your moneys worth. 3 fighters = 2 hits then 2 more hits (2x cruiser 2x bb, germany is sending 4 hits usually sometimes sub hits so it is 5, in which case your fighters go even). SZ 111 Germany can score 2-4 hits so you expect a 2nd roll with the fighter scrambling. You get a roll @ 1 then a roll @ 4 when germany gets good dice, Germany gets bad dice you get a 3rd roll. Okay dice you get 2 rolls @ 1 (on the bright side you are not rolling @3 which you can miss and be sad).
In dice games, you may as well try to luck out early game.
I have yet to play a Europe game with a bid. I see your logic in scrambling, and I used to see it that way too. The problem is that you really don’t have enough to take out the Italy fleet after a full scramble. Here is my Germany attacks against 110 and 111.
110: 2 subs, BB, 2 figs, 2 tacs, bomber
111: 2 subs, 2 figs, 2 tacs, bomber
Sea zone 110 attacker is averaging 3-5 hits in low luck. If you scramble you will average 4-5 first round. Lets say you each get 4 hits. attacker chooses 2 subs and 2 hits on the bb. Defender chooses 2 cruisers BB and french fig. Next round attacker gets 3 hits and that kills you while you kill 2 fighters. This is a net gain in terms of TUV vs. not scrambling (which would be 1-2 hits vs 5-8, but now you have a lot less that can hit Italy.
Sea zone 111 attacker is averaging 3-4 hits and defender with scramble is 2-3. Let’s say 3 hits for attack and 2 for defense. That means attacker looses 2 subs and defender looses cruiser, dd, and 1 hit on BB. Next round attacker kills you and you get 1-2 hits. Let’s say 1 hit. That means you killed an extra fighter that you wouldn’t have and had a better chance at killing both subs. Sounds like a TUV gain again, but what about Italy?
I might like scrambling 110 just to try and get lucky since you’d have to take that BB out on your turn anyways with your fighters, but you’d have to not scramble 111, so you can have that extra fighter for Italy’s fleet.