A quick calculation of numbers tells me the allies will loose all their naval hardware (including 4 units USAF). Italy, used as can opener, will loose all its naval and air assets as well and Germany will be left with 7 units in its Luftwaffe.
But let’s say the allies can have a stronger fleet for some reasons (perhaps Japan doesn’t threaten Hawai at all and the USA can transfer some warships from the pacific into Europe…). Then, it rather depends on how much force I’d have left as Axis.
Let’s say the UK didn’t do much to stop the Axis from taking The Rock (might even do that deliberately if the USA has good options to bypass Gibraltar).
Also let’s assume the USA has put a real investment (all IPCs from turns 1&2) into Europe first few turns and has at its disposal 7 fully loaded TRS, 3CV(1 from UK), 5FTR+1TAC (2FTR from UK), 1STR. This includes some hocus pocus with elements of the Pacific fleet (TRS) as long as Hawai can be kept safe. The UK should be able to deliver 6FTR as well for defenses after the USA lands somewhere.
Some German Options as far as I can brainstorm them:
OPTION1 -Defend WGr with 10 newly produced units + the luftwaffe + AAA and INF/ART still around from game start. This means giving up Gibraltar but keeps a flow of reinforements into Russia for 1 more turn and opens up some interesting strategic options in Africa/Med/South America for the kriegsmarine. Also in Spain, liberating it just because you can, not necessarily to keep it.
OPTION2 -Defend WGr with 10 Newly produced units + 10 already there (originally put there to race into Russia) + those AAA and INF/ART still there from game start.
For this option Japan must pressure the USA into spending a lot in the Pac from turn 3 and onwards. This means holding on to Gibraltar (reinforcing it some more) and setting up strong counter attack options everywhere. Maybe not strong enough to counter a determined allied ‘liberation’ of Spain but that is a close call for both sides…
While this keeps Gibraltar in the Axis basket for longer I’m not certain what other strategic options this may give to the axis -apart from being stro in the west, as this hurts its position against Russia.
Option 2 seems to be the less attractive one (as far as offensive actions) but I’m not so sure in the long run.
IF the Axis can hold on to Gibraltar for a long time (as said, Japan must pressure Hawai to enforce no further US focus on Europe), which maintains threats into Africa/South America and keeps Italy producing strong for long. Russia will be less threatened but I find it hard to see where this is going. Experience needed ;-). I’d say it’s a difficult position for both sides and thus worth a try.
On a sidenote,
I’ve given some more thought to what knp said: attack Gibraltar US4 with a load of TRS, eating away German Luftwaffe. This works well if the allies can get into Gibraltar with a fully loaded ~8TRS and this seems to be possible only after a ‘Taranto’ UK1. Just as knp said. Otherwise the combined German and Italian fleets in SZ91 are too strong to overcome. With an Italian CV built, even the Kriegsmarine alone is a close call to get rid of. So as far as I’m concerned the allies really need to do their math (enough TRS to kill enough Luftwaffe + enough warships to get through in case the Kriegsmarine blocks + keeping Hawai safe) on this one but it defenately works once they get the balance of their forces right :-).