Sealion Version 1.0

[questioneer]

yes, all 3 of you are correct- sorry forgot about G2.

What is the best UK can do to defend UK then??
Is 8 TT enoungh for Germany???  Assuming UK attacks or partial attacks at z112 otherwise its coming with 11-12TT

So then, Sealion is solved it will happen???

Now the question arises:

Not if but when Germany wins at z112, Sealion succeeds and will it be over for the Allies??? or can they still come back.  Germany will have $$$ and so will Italy since UK had to use the Med force to stop Sealion.

In Global, if Sealion succeeds, now the US has to pull in more money on the Euro side than it wants to.  That’s great news for Japan who would like to overrun the Pacific.  If I’m Japan and Sealion succeeds, I either continue to plow towards India or attack the Hawaiian Islands to make the US indecisive with how to spend its cash.  US spending and moving effieciently is a key to winning for the Allies in all AA games.

[Latro]

If the UK plays defensively it can most likely prevent Sealion in G2, but it comes at the cost being very passive in all other areas of the board. If Germany keeps pouring in all IPC’s and/or units, Sealion will be basicly impossible to stop for the UK during G3 and later.

So I’ll just go for building just enough to stall a G2 Sealion, put all efforts into other fronts, accept that Sealion will succeed in G3 and concentrate on containing Italy (which shouldn’t be that hard). The US and Soviets are more than enough to handle Germany.

So instead of reacting to Germany, the UK should be acting against Italy!

8-)

[questioneer]

@Latro:

If the UK plays defensively it can most likely prevent Sealion in G2, but it comes at the cost being very passive in all other areas of the board. If Germany keeps pouring in all IPC’s and/or units, Sealion will be basicly impossible to stop for the UK during G3 and later.

So I’ll just go for building just enough to stall a G2 Sealion, put all efforts into other fronts, accept that Sealion will succeed in G3 and concentrate on containing Italy (which shouldn’t be that hard). The US and Soviets are more than enough to handle Germany.

So instead of reacting to Germany, the UK should be acting against Italy!

8-)

I’ll have to study the possible Round 2 options for all countries at this point.  It looks like Sealion can be a sealed deal at G3 if not G2.  Of course things get more complicated for playtesting purposes because with each successive round there are even more variations.

We just need several of us to playtest (not jabberjaw about hypotheticals) with what jim010 started and tweek it to see if his analysis holds true- by the math, is seems like a foregone conclusion.

[Imperious Leader]

On UK 1 they build 9 Infantry

On UK2 they build another 10+ infantry

That gives them 21 plus any that might come over from Canada ( Tank and Infantry)

and 4 planes.

How can Germany invade on G3 with that defending?

The only chance is G2.

[pusfilledwart]

how about for UK1 they build two fighters and three men and land the tac from Gib on London?. its a bonus if they get the Canuck armor and troop

[Van_Trump]

G1 build CV, DD, SS.
Most efficient defense with ipcs available.

But…

If UK builds 20 inf (over first two turns) + 2 Inf + inf/tank (from Canada) + Gilb Tac + 3 fighters (11 hits 1st round) + whatever aa gun does

Germany can maybe still take it with 9 inf, 4 Art, 5 Tanks, 6-8 fighters/Tac, 1 Bomb + 1 hit from BB 1st round. (11 hits 1st round) but it is too close to risk.

So Germany must build 2 TT’s round 1 and use the CA to block Gilb fleet.

[bugoo]

Don’t forget the 1 inf, 1 arm, 1 fig from alexandria that can get up there.  8-)

[WILD BILL]

@bugoo:

Don’t forget the 1 inf, 1 arm, 1 fig from alexandria that can get up there.  8-)

That’s something I don’t think I’ve heard before. They have the movement points to get to England in two turns. Could they (tpt w/ground troops) get through the Med though? They would have to be in sz 92 end of UK1. Sz 92 is not exactly safe from the axis.

[Imperious Leader]

Thats why G2 sealion if the only viable option.

The Labrador DD and AP can be sunk, with one SS ( coin flip admittedly)

[bugoo]

@WILD:

@bugoo:

Don’t forget the 1 inf, 1 arm, 1 fig from alexandria that can get up there.   8-)

That’s something I don’t think I’ve heard before. They have the movement points to get to England in two turns. Could they (tpt w/ground troops) get through the Med though? They would have to be in sz 92 end of UK1. Sz 92 is not exactly safe from the axis.

Is is with a cruiser block in SZ 94.  Only way for the germans to hit it would be to land planes in africa on G2, out of range for G3 sea lion.

[mikecool70]

@bugoo:

@WILD:

@bugoo:

Don’t forget the 1 inf, 1 arm, 1 fig from alexandria that can get up there.   8-)

That’s something I don’t think I’ve heard before. They have the movement points to get to England in two turns. Could they (tpt w/ground troops) get through the Med though? They would have to be in sz 92 end of UK1. Sz 92 is not exactly safe from the axis.

Is is with a cruiser block in SZ 94.  Only way for the germans to hit it would be to land planes in africa on G2, out of range for G3 sea lion.

Also, if the transport by the UK survives, it can join up with the transport from Egypt and load up two French infantry from North Africa which then unload on UK on French turn 2.

[Van_Trump]

Look how distorted UK1 becomes just because of the threat of Sealion.
Italy rules the Med, for instance.

All this before Germany even commits to the TT purchase G2.
Looks like a win for the Axis, regardless.

[bugoo]

How?  Italy is going to take egypt no matter what you do for a few turns, and you still cost them the no ships in the med NO.  On top of that, to keep there transports at egypt safe they have to move there fleet out of position.  The UK can keep the carrier and/or destroyer and transport there, use it to liberate egypt, use it to strike at italy or where ever they decide.  Yes it hurts you in Africa, but income wise the axis need Italy to hit the 30 mark to remain competitive.

[Imperious Leader]

After looking closely at this G3 Sealion, it does have more flexibility than my G2 plan.

UK cant escape unless they buy crap first to prepare or they lose. Germany gets to play “on the button” as they say in poker… the last to act after seeing what others do, but holding the decisions first.

[Imperious Leader]

This is his plan in a manner of which is more readable.

GERMANY: Turn 1

Purchase:

1 CV, 1 SS, 1 AP

save
$1

Land Combat Movements:
Holland  to Normandy: 1 inf, 1 art
Romania to Yugoslavia:1 inf, 1 tank
Slovakia to Yugoslavia:2 inf, 1 tank
South Germany to Yugoslavia:2 inf
West Germany to France:2 inf, 1 art, 4 Mech
Holland to France: 3 inf, 3 tanks
South Germany to France: 2 tanks
Poland to Yugoslavia: 1 Tank

Key land battle results:

Battle of France
5 Inf, 4 Mech, 1 Art, 5 tanks vs. 7 Inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 Fighter

R1

Attack
5 Inf, 4 Mech, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits
Defend
7 Inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 Fighter = 28 - 5 hits

R2

Attack
4 Mech, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits
Defend
2 Inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 Fighter = 18 - 3 hits

R3

Attack
1 Mech, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits
Defend
2 tanks, 1 Fighter = 10 - 2 hits

75% battle for Germany

Battle of Yugoslavia:
5 Inf, 3 tanks vs. 5 Inf

R1

Attack
5 Inf, 3 tanks = 14 - 2 hits
Defend
5 Inf = 10 - 2 hits

R2

Attack
3 Inf, 3 tanks = 12 - 2 hits
Defend
3 Inf = 6 - 1 hit

R3

Attack
2 Inf, 3 tanks = 11 - 2 hits
Defend
1 Inf = 2 - 0 hit

98% battle for Germany

Sea Zone 106 Attacks:
From Sea Zone 117: 1 SS
From Sea Zone 118: 1 SS

Battle of sz106
2 SS vs 1 DD, 1 AP
Attack
2 SS = 4 - 1 hit
Defend
1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

78% battle for Germany

Sea Zone 109 Attacks:
From Holland: 1 Fighter
From Sea Zone 108: 1 SS

Battle of sz109
1 SS, 1 Fighter vs. 1 DD, 1 AP
Attack
1 SS, 1 Fighter = 5 - 1 hit
Defend
1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

88% battle for Germany

I’ll lose the SS, as I didn’t lose one in sz106

Sea Zone 111 attacks:
From Norway: 1 Fighter
From Sea Zone 124: 1 SS
From West Germany: 1 Tactical Bomber
From Germany: 1 Bomber

Battle of sz111
1 SS, 1 Fighter, 1 tactical, 1 Bomber vs. 1 BB, 1 CA

R1
Attack
1 SS, 1 Fighter, 1 tactical, 1 Bomber = 13 - 2 hits
Defend
1 CA, 1 BB = 7 - 1 hit

R2
Attack
1 Fighter, 1 tactical, 1 Bomber = 11 - 2 hits
Defend
1 damaged BB = 4 - 1 hit

90% battle for Germany

Sea Zone 112 Attacks:
From Sea Zone 113: 1 BB, 1 CA
From West Germany: 1 Fighter

Battle of Sea Zone 112
1 CR, 1 BB, 1 Fighter vs. 2 CA

Attack
1 CA, 1BB, 1 Fighter = 10 - 2 hits
Defend
2 CA = 6 - 1 hit

96% battle for Germany

Sea Zone 110 Attacks:
From Sea Zone 103: 1 SS
From West Germany : 1 Fighter, 2 Tactical

Battle of sz110
1 SS, 1 Fighter, 2 tactical vs. 1 DD, 1 BB

R1
Attack
1 SS, 1 Fighter, 2 tactical = 12 - 2 hits
Defend
1 DD, 1 BB = 6 - 1 hit

R2
Attack
1 Fighter, 2 tactical = 10 - 2 hits
Defend
1 Damaged BB = 4 - 1 hit

93% battle for Germany

Non Combat Movement:

Germany to West Germany
6 Inf, 4 art

South Germany to West Germany
4 Inf

South Germany to Germany
1 art

Sea Zone 113 to Sea Zone 115
1 AP ( load from Poland 2 Inf to Finland)

Romania to Bulgaria
1 Inf

Norway to Finland
2 Inf

Sea Zone111 to West Germany
1 Tactical, 1 Bomber

Sea Zone 110 to West Germany
2 Tactical

Sea Zone 109 to Sea Zone 112
1 Fighter

Place

1 CV, 1 TT, 1 SS in Sea Zone 112

Collect

$64

The nice thing is Germany on her G2 turn can build 9 more AP’s giving them 11 total and landing on G3:

11 Inf, 8 tanks and 3 artillery 4 fighters, 3 tactical bombers, 1 bomber and 1 BB, 1 CA

Against:

23 UK infantry 3 fighters, 1 tactical bomber, 1 tank

Germany wins 85.7 to 13.3%

If i made a mistake and UK has 24 infantry, then the odds are 78% to 20%

[calvinhobbesliker]

There’s a 40% chance that you will lose or draw one or more of the following battles: France, Z110, 111, 112

[Imperious Leader]

Thats really high!

[calvinhobbesliker]

@Imperious:

Thats really high!

40% chance you’ll lose or 60% chance you’ll win?

[calvinhobbesliker]

If either Brit BB survives, it can kill the German fleet. If Z112 goes badly, Germany can’t sealion until g3. If France doesn’t fall, Germany builds 3 less transports G2

[Imperious Leader]

40% chance you’ll lose or 60% chance you’ll win?

Yea. If you combine all these 90% attacks and assign a 40% cumulative to them, its the best you can hope for.

Now many attacks can get you 85%+

The 40% chance is one battle goes wrong. This plan can survive one miss and will win

It cant survive not killing one of the Uk BB’s. That causes uk to have enough on UK1 to kill SZ 112 fleet.