I agree, if you build all Infantry, and move all units to Moscow…It would not be “Ideal Conditions” for you to continue my all mech push.
At this point, you would have to adjust your plan. It should be apparent by the beginning of turn 4, that Russia is moving its units to Moscow. I suggest you have two choices, based on what the other allies are doing.
Choice 1: Change G4’s planned production. Continue with your move towards Moscow as you have the units on the board, when Russia moves its stack into Moscow, since it is all infantry you can move next to it with your stack…pinning it in Moscow and send 1 - 3 armor to clean up the southern territories plus the V-City. Use the Finland infantry to secure the Northern V-City. Send the Bulgarian infantry to Berlin. Russia retreating to Moscow leaves them maybe 8 IPCs a turn, so add 20 IPCs plus 2 N/Os to Germany’s estimated 39 + 10 for the Norway N/Os. I estimate a German Production of 79 IPCs by turn 6 under this scenario. Now, budget 12-15 IPCs for artillery in Volgograd/Russian front, the rest in navy to either do a late game Sea Lion for city number 8 or a sub air force strategy with a Neutral crush that prevents an allied buildup in Gibraltar…Italy ground forces will enter Spain when Germany takes it. With Spain as a landing field the W. Germany air base reaches most allied staging areas, Axis control of Gibraltar protects Italy. Play a game of production with the allies, eventually Moscow or London will fall if you outproduce them.
Choice 2: build all armor G4, and maybe another round of armor and try to take G7 or G8. I haven’t done the math to see if that would be viable.
This may seem risky, but changing strategies mid game is not without its risks. Again, I am not advocating this as a be all end all strategy. It was just a fast way to take Moscow, unless Russia does “extreme” builds and moves to prevent it. All it takes is a small Russian stack protecting Novgorad or move offensive unit builds and I bet the numbers change. Maybe they don’t and I’m just wasting our collective time.
Thanks for the input and crunching the numbers for me. I value the debate and hope to benefit from the points presenting regarding this strategy.
I only crunched the numbers on that total-infantry defence to get an idea of what the situation would be during the mech-infantry push to Moscow on G6. Needless to say, those numbers turned out to be very extreme indeed. So extreme actually, that the Soviets can afford to operate several smaller infantry formations away from Moscow and still have something like a 95% chance of victory at the capital. Due to the massive defenders advantage, the Soviets have a lot of flexibility in their build … the Germans on the other hand do not.
This immediately locks down your first choice as alternative strategy. The German mech-inf can’t lock down the Soviet army in Moscow because it has no chance of victory in either attack or defence. For every small flanking formation you move away from the main army, the Soviets can intercept with more and still keep their massive advantage around Moscow.
The reason for this lies in the effectiveness of the initial builds. Germany builds mech infantry to attack, the Soviet Union builds regular infantry to defend. For every 30 IPC Germany uses on the mech infantry, they gain 7.5 pips in the attack … the Soviets gain 20 defensive pips with their infantry build using the same 30 IPC. That’s almost 3 times as effective!
G7 attack with 10 extra armour gives 1.1% chance of success
G8 attack with 20 extra armour gives 14.5% chance of success
G9 attack with 30 extra armour gives 36.7% chance of success
Personally I don’t put too much faith in precise predictions so late in the game though … way too much can happen to mess things up. I also don’t think it’s realistic to expect Germany being able to spend up to three turns of (almost) full production going East … in my games around turn 4-5 the landings in the West start to become very serious and drain a lot of income.
On a sidenote: I haven’t been able to find a good way to attack the Soviet Union yet, but I’m considering trying lots of smaller attacks in stead of the single concentrated push towards Moscow. So far I haven’t seen any concentrated push strategy with good odds of success. The advantage of multiple small attacks would be:
- The Soviets will either have to defend with multiple smaller stacks or give up a lot of ground and lose valuable economic power.
- Multiple smaller attacking formations can easily concentrate attacks against a single defensive formation, defenders can never react in time … and if the concentrate in an important location, the attackers will remain spread out and take more territories.
- Defending infantry becomes very scary in large numbers … but small formations are easy to destroy. So the defender has the choice of losing valuable troops defending against multiple attacks which prevents concentrating a large powerful army, or giving up a lot of ground very fast leaving him with very limited resources to build his main army.