14L G40 TheWell-KnownSoldier(axis) vs Karl7(allies+12) Game 2

[Karl7]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

Game History

Round: 4

Combat Move - French
            1 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria
                  French take Algeria from Italians
            1 infantry moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to Egypt

Combat - French

Non Combat Move - French

Turn Complete - French

[Karl7]

That is insane… a reason why I hate this game sometimes… totally arbitrary

Battle in Western Australia
                ANZAC attack with 2 fighters
                Japanese defend with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                Japanese win with 1 artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is -17
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
                Casualties for ANZAC: 2 fighters

[TheUnknownSoldier]

It’s the prize you pay for playing a game with an element of chance. But I also fear you suffer from conformation bias. If you look at both your strafing attacks your expected number of fighter losses was ~2.6 in return for killing my four land units. So from an ipc perspective you got about the average result.

[TheUnknownSoldier]

Of course from the perspective of hoping to rob Japan of land units to allow a attack on NSW your are out of luck, on the other hand you had only ~70% chance to pull that of so it’s not like your failure was a one in a million…

[TheUnknownSoldier]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

Game History

Round: 5

Research Technology - Germans

Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 2 bombers and 3 tactical_bombers; Remaining resources: 2 PUs;

Combat Move - Germans
            2 infantry moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium
            2 bombers moved from Novgorod to Holland Belgium

Combat - Germans
            Battle in Holland Belgium
                Germans attack with 2 bombers and 2 infantry
                British defend with 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 2 bombers and 2 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 :  2/4 hits
                    British roll dice for 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 :  1/1 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the British and 1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Holland Belgium
                Germans win, taking Holland Belgium from British with 2 bombers and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                Casualties for British: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Germans
            3 aaGuns, 15 armour, 5 artilleries, 16 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Belarus to Bryansk
            3 armour moved from Novgorod to Bryansk
            4 armour, 1 fighter, 6 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Eastern Poland to Bryansk
            3 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to Bryansk
            1 transport moved from 113 Sea Zone to 126 Sea Zone
            2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from France to Western Germany
            2 bombers moved from Holland Belgium to Western Germany

Place Units - Germans
            3 tactical_bombers placed in Novgorod
            2 bombers placed in Western Germany

Turn Complete - Germans
            Germans collect 42 PUs; end with 44 PUs total
            Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 49 PUs
            Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 54 PUs

Territory Summary for Germans :

France : 1 flag, 1 airfield and 1 factory_minor
    Western Germany : 3 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 2 artilleries, 4 bombers, 1 factory_major, 1 harbour and 3 infantry
    Germany : 1 factory_major
    Holland Belgium : 1 infantry
    Belarus : 1 flag
    Karelia : 1 flag
    Baltic States : 1 flag
    Bryansk : 3 aaGuns, 22 armour, 5 artilleries, 4 fighters, 16 infantry, 9 mech_infantrys and 5 tactical_bombers
    Vyborg : 1 flag
    Eastern Poland : 1 flag
    Novgorod : 1 flag, 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor, 1 harbour, 3 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
    125 Sea Zone : 1 flag
    126 Sea Zone : 1 transport
    Finland : 1 flag, 7 infantry

Production/PUs Summary :

Germans : 42 / 54
    Russians : 28 / 36
    Japanese : 58 / 67
    Americans : 52 / 72
    Chinese : 8 / 7
    British : 32 / 43
    UK_Pacific : 6 / 8
    Italians : 24 / 25
    ANZAC : 8 / 11
    French : 7 / 0
    Dutch : 0 / 0
    Mongolians : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Axis : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Allies : 0 / 0
    Neutral_True : 18 / 0

[TheUnknownSoldier]

@TheWell-KnownSoldier:

Of course from the perspective of hoping to rob Japan of land units to allow a attack on NSW your are out of luck, on the other hand you had only ~70% chance to pull that of so it’s not like your failure was a one in a million…

On a second though I gave you too good odds. In fact you had only ~30% chance to wipe all my land units so even from that perspective you got the average result.

[Karl7]

@TheWell-KnownSoldier:

@TheWell-KnownSoldier:

Of course from the perspective of hoping to rob Japan of land units to allow a attack on NSW your are out of luck, on the other hand you had only ~70% chance to pull that of so it’s not like your failure was a one in a million…

On a second though I gave you too good odds. In fact you had only ~30% chance to wipe all my land units so even from that perspective you got the average result.

30%?  Huh?  In that battle I had 100% hit 1st round, you had 60%, round 2 assuming we both hit, I had 50% vs 30%.  As worst it would have been mutual annihilation.

[Karl7]

The point remains, that I was well within the margin of luck to stop your raid on NSW.  But extremem dice intervened to throw the game .

[TheUnknownSoldier]

First off you had two strafing battles with ~60% to win (ie wipe my land units) in one and ~50% in the second. 60% x 50% = 30%
As I said you have conformation bias. But don’t feel bad we all do.  :-)

The point remains, that I was well within the margin of luck to stop your raid on NSW.  But extremem dice intervened to throw the game .

No you had 30% chance, so you would need luck to pull it off.

[TheUnknownSoldier]

Actually my numbers are still off. You don’t need to win to wipe my units you only need to draw. But that it still 73% x 65% = 47% So you had almost a coin flip to avoid your fate. But that is fare from extreme bad luck…  :roll:

[Karl7]

how are you getting 50% in the second.  All the battles were the same – I had 100% surety of hit, you had 60%.   2 ftrs at 3 vs 2 land at 2 each.  The other was 4inf, 1art vs 2 land which I had over 100% chance to hit.

It has been a long time since I’ve taken statistics, but you are saying you multiply odds across iterations?

Anyhow, the dice are the dice.  You are going to get Moscow and NSW which will set the Allies too far back.

The game is over I think.

[TheUnknownSoldier]

I use a combat calc to calculate the odds off the battles. You got one of the battles incorrect. I had a tank!  :evil:

[Karl7]

@TheWell-KnownSoldier:

I use a combat calc to calculate the odds off the battles. You got one of the battles incorrect. I had a tank!  :evil:

AH!  I forgot the tank. ok makes more sense now.

[TheUnknownSoldier]

That you multiply to get the final odds, that part of the math i’m sure I got correct.  :roll:
Nevertheless you determine when you think you can hear the fat lady sing…  :-)

[Karl7]

Ha ha…. out of fun I attacked the German stack, you got 36 hits in defense!

Interesting game to the extent that my allied game is sucking.  I think 12 bid is definitely too low for me. When I saw I had a UK fleet in play, I thought ok, things are looking good, not really seeing you were going to take Moscow.

Losing NSW would be tolerable but not both.

I’ll post result.

Maybe come November we can play again. I’ve got ton of games going and am going to lose most of them.  :lol:  Back to the drawing board for me!

[TheUnknownSoldier]

I can’t claim to be an expert on the allies myself (or the axis  :roll:) but what I feared you would do last UK turn was to move your Egyptian fighters to Persia (perhaps even the India fighters). With a little fighter support Russia would have hold out long enough for it’s big stacks of infantry to get back I think…

On the pacific side it wasn’t just conformation bias, you did suffer bad luck in the Japan vs ANZAC/USA war of attrition.  :|

[TheUnknownSoldier]

In any event I look forward to play against you in the future.  :-)

[Karl7]

@TheWell-KnownSoldier:

I can’t claim to be an expert on the allies myself (or the axis  :roll:) but what I feared you would do last UK turn was to move your Egyptian fighters to Persia (perhaps even the India fighters). With a little fighter support Russia would have hold out long enough for it’s big stacks of infantry to get back I think…

On the pacific side it wasn’t just conformation bias, you did suffer bad luck in the Japan vs ANZAC/USA war of attrition.  :|

I know, I think if I had paid more attention to the Russia issue I’d been able to shore up the Russians… but that’s what happens when you have too many games going I think.

[TheUnknownSoldier]

Test summary from TripleA, engine version: 1.8.0.3, time: 02:15:35

[TheUnknownSoldier]

Wrong thread, the value of the test post.  :-)