P40 VonLetto (x) v Gamerman01 Pointlessly Broken, USA is doomed game 1

[gamerman01]

@vonLettowVorbeck1914:

Hopefully the best allied strat (which you are using right now) will shut this down and hopefully there is also nothing Japan could have done better against this best allied strat.

To any observors: PLEASE feel free to comment directly to this thread if you have any ideas about what should be done next by either of us, or what should have been done differently.

We are both TRYING to play the optimal strat for Japan and the Allies both.  If we can both play an optimal strategy, then people won’t have to play a lot more games to figure this question out.  It’s POSSIBLE we can settle the issue one way or the other with a single game, but only if we’re making really good moves.

I think vonL and I should also be pointing out where we think the other could improve their move if we see anything, for the same reason.  Wouldn’t that be the most efficient?  Rather than someone having to play it anew just to tweak something they think could have been done differently?

I understand too, that if there are some ideas to do something differently that a new game may need to be played to try it out.  But if it’s something like “Man, why are you sitting in WUS this turn when you could move to Canada”, it would be nice to be alerted right away so we can avoid sub-optimal moves that are bringing little or no benefit, in this maiden test game.

Thanks!  :-)

[gamerman01]

@Gamerman01:

For the record, I have not studied VonL’s detailed strategy that he assures us will kill the USA with a very high percentage chance every single time.

All I know at this point is that he has a KUSAF strategy and it somehow involves the Aleutian islands and Z14.

Other than that, I have no idea what is coming.  If it succeeds the first time, maybe I will be granted another game to make adjustments.  After all, to say the game is broken your strategy has to be unstoppable even when the opponent knows pretty much exactly what is coming.  But in this first game I know none of the details.

This has changed since vonLettow uploaded 2 previous tripleA maps of this strategy.  To determine as quickly as possible whether or not the game is broken, it is more efficient to study those 2 games provided before setting up the Allied response.

So this Allied response is being prepared with full knowledge of what Japan is planning to do.  (Main points - Land on Aleutians or British Columbia as soon as possible, buying 100% transports until J3, when buying an airbase for Aleutians)

[Karl7]

Even if Japan takes the US, I have a hard time believing that ANZAC and UK can’t get huge by R4 or so and strong enough to stuff Japan.

But lets see.

[Karl7]

Why didn’t us buy 2 subs or something R1?  Looks like would have had a change to kill his fleet off Alaska… maybe?

[gamerman01]

Good move - going to Z1 and Alaska prevents my plan to defend British Columbia because it is impossible to block the fleet parked in Z1, adjacent to Z10.

Studying, I think that moving to Z9 on J2 accomplishes the same thing, so even if I had blocked off a J2 attack on Alaska like was done in the Sword game, it doesn’t prevent Japan from taking British Columbia J3.

I’m not seeing a way to stop the landing of 24 ground units on British Columbia on J3.
This means Japan can attack J4 with 16 INF, 7 ART, 1 ARM, 11 FTR, 8 TAC, and 2 BMB.  I don’t think that fact can be changed.
However, it is possible for the Allies to get some extra defense to WUS.

1. Buy 5 INF US1
2. Buy BMB UK1, TP ANZ1
3. Buy 6 INF US2
4. Buy naval base for Samoa UK2
5. Move 2 loaded transports to Samoa ANZ2
6. Buy 5 INF, AA, ARM, 3 FTR US3
7. Fly in UK bomber
8. Fly in 3 ANZ fighters
9. Transport 4 ground units from Samoa

The 4 ground units from ANZAC can probably be stopped? by parking some Japanese fleet in Z10.  However, some ships will be needed to protect 6 transports that will be moving into Z1.  But maybe the US fleet is sitting in Z10 protected by potential scrambles.  I don’t know if the Japanese player would attack the US fleet, but if they don’t, the 4 ANZAC units cannot be stopped from making it to the US on ANZ3.

If ANZAC ground units are stopped, then the Allies are defending with 21 INF, ART, 2 AA, ARM, TAC, 11 FTR, 1 BMB

Assuming 1 fighter shot down by AA, the odds are 95% chance of taking WUS.  Median result is Japan survives with the tank and 13 aircraft.  Upper quartile is 17 aircraft, 3rd quartile is 9 aircraft.

However, if you have 4 ANZAC ground units on top of that, for a total of 25 INF, then
the odds are only 72.8% chance of victory.  Median result is Japan survives with 7 aircraft.  Upper quartile is 11 aircraft, 3rd quartile is FAILURE - game over.  70/30 percentile has Japan winning, but with only 1 or 2 bombers remaining.

If the Allies build maximum defense builds with the USA every turn, fly in a UK bomber and 3 ANZAC fighters, and get 4 ANZAC infantry in, the Allies have a very good chance of winning.  If WUS falls but Japan only survives with a handful of planes, the Allies still have a good chance of winning.

As Zhukov pointed out, P40 has always been unbalanced in favor of Japan.  Running the “traditional” strategy of going after India and China first should still be successful a higher percentage of the time than going KUSAF.

[gamerman01]

@Karl7:

Why didn’t us buy 2 subs or something R1?  Looks like would have had a change to kill his fleet off Alaska… maybe?

Good thought - ran the numbers - only a 4% chance of victory and you lose all your planes and you bought 4 less infantry.  Back to the drawing board, Karl.  :-)

Thanks!

[vonLettowVorbeck1914]

@Karl7:

Even if Japan takes the US, I have a hard time believing that ANZAC and UK can’t get huge by R4 or so and strong enough to stuff Japan.

But lets see.

One thing to remember is that Japan can buy defensively the turn that it actually attacks the US. So the Anzac/UK attack really needs to come before that, or it ain’t gonna happen.

[vonLettowVorbeck1914]

@Gamerman01:

I think vonL and I should also be pointing out where we think the other could improve their move if we see anything, for the same reason.  Wouldn’t that be the most efficient?  Rather than someone having to play it anew just to tweak something they think could have been done differently?

I know its a lot of reading, but PLEASE read the summaries, at least skim them in the other thread. I think that will cover why I did my seemingly crazy aleutians blocks.

[vonLettowVorbeck1914]

That J2 took me maybe 15 mins, not sure. Once I saw you left Alaska open I was pretty sure of what I wanted to do.

USA 3 USA can actually attack british columbia, but 8-9 Japanese units surviving is the average result.

USA Naval strats are futile IMO.t6

[gamerman01]

@vonLettowVorbeck1914:

That J2 took me maybe 15 mins, not sure. Once I saw you left Alaska open I was pretty sure of what I wanted to do.

USA 3 USA can actually attack british columbia, but 8-9 Japanese units surviving is the average result.

USA Naval strats are futile IMO.t6

Right, that’s pretty much what I concluded too.  I said it’s impossible to stop J3 24 units on Br Colombia.  It doesn’t matter what you do with the USA fleet.

OOB USA had 2 bombers and more planes.  Air reduction seems to have hurt USA’s chances to stop this since OOB.  Way to go, Larry.

[Cow]

Operation Global Hollywood is supposed to be a secret. STOP UNCOVERING THE MYSTERIES.

[Cow]

I was going to do this in garg’s tournament for the final match. Germany comes in and convoys east usa.

[Cow]

I believe there was a thread for this strategy already… I am a bit surprised you guys are doing it for the pacific board only. I would think taking USA would be kind of easy.

[vonLettowVorbeck1914]

IMO this strat dies in Global; USA’s capital is not W USA in that one obviously, USA makes 3x as much when not at war, and USA can bring plenty over from the East. Perhaps Germany’s actions can really disable USA, but the money and reinforcement situation is so different from Pacific.