GH had it right! Better safe than sorry. You don’t want to lose a capital and it’s income if preventable just because you think it can be taken back at some future time. Turn 2 is when you decide your options.
The Defense Of Britain
-
If Germany wants the UK(i.e. SeaLion), there is nothing the UK can do to stop them. As mentioned there are many ways to try and prevent it or at least make it very costly. Put the Med fleet in SZ92(Turn 1). Don’t worry about block b/cuz the Italians won’t be able to kill it by themselves. If the Italians hit you Turn 1(to soften you up for the German airforce), then they’ll die and that’s a good thing for the UK. If the Germans hit you w/their airforce Round 2, then that’s more good news, as it kills more German airforce and usually means putting the German airforce out of position for a Turn 3 SeaLion. More good news for the Brits. Don’t worry about blocking in SZ94, for the above mentioned reasons.
If the Germans invade Scotland on Turn 2 and have built 7 more transports on Turn 2, then you can be reasonably assured that Germany is going for SeaLion. Don’t take Scotland back. Usually Germany has taken Scotland w/3 Inf, 3 Art. On Turn 1, you should have built 4 Inf, 4 Art in the UK. If for some reason you still have your CC from SZ91 and your DD from SZ109, then you can hit the German fleet in SZ111 w/your air & fleet. But, most likely if your fleet is still in those SZ’s after Turn 1, the German player, could decide not to SeaLion and kill your remaining fleet. Most UK players have moved their fleet out of those SZ’s. In that case, you defend against SeaLion as best you can, building up your US forces in SZ64, w/a NB in Smx, so if Germany does SeaLion, you can get a huge invasion force to the UK by Turn 4 and take it back.
-
Also, if Germany does invade Scotland but doesn’t build more transports on Turn 2, then by building 4 Inf, 4 Art, you have enough firepower to take Scotland back if need be. Also w/the 70 IPC’s Germany has to spend on Turn 2, they have more than enough money to buy 7 transports(49), plus another AC in SZ113 w/2 FTR’s, plus scrambles in W. Ger to defend their 7 newly built transports.
-
If the Germans invade Scotland on Turn 2 and have built 7 more transports on Turn 2, then you can be reasonably assured that Germany is going for SeaLion.
If this is all they build, you can stop Sealion cold. They need the 12 TTs to do it.
-
I just did it w/only 10 Transports in a game against a very good opponent. This is after he built all Inf in Round’s 1 and 2 AND brought over 1 Inf, 1 Arm from Canada.
-
I stopped a poorly planned Sea Lion with a sub purchase. Works great against a Germany that only has a CV and planes in the North Sea.
-
How would you stop a SeaLion w/only subs?
-
I just did it w/only 10 Transports in a game against a very good opponent. This is after he built all Inf in Round’s 1 and 2 AND brought over 1 Inf, 1 Arm from Canada.
Then he got bad rolls. You can also bring in 2 French inf from Africa, and all air power. UK should also be able to buy 1 tank (2 if the sb bonus is achieved) and 9 inf UK 2.
-
Germany Turn 1 - Builds : 1 AC, 2 Trans
UK Turn 1 - Builds : 4 Inf, 4 Art(max builds)Germany Turn 2 - Invades Scotland w/3 Inf, 3 Art
UK Turn 2 - Builds : 8 Inf, 2 Art(assuming they have 32 IPC’s, which they should). They bring over 1 Inf, 1 Arm from Canada. Most likely the DD & Trans in SZ106 are dead. So that leaves 1 Trans from SZ109 to bring over the 1 Inf, 1 Arm from Canada. Assuming they bring up 2 more French Inf from Africa. And all their aircraft(6 FTr’s, including the French + 1 Tac). That’s 19 Inf, 6 Art, 1 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac + 1 AA defending.Germany Turn 3 - Attacks UK w/13 Inf, 5 Art, 8 Arm, 5 FTR’s, 5 Tacs, 1 S. Bmbr, 1 BB + 1 CC shore bombard.
Odds calculator says Germany wins : 69.5% of the time. Ran scenario 10,000 times.
How does Germany not win?
-
Let’s play it out then.
Give me your opening moves and post a map.
-
UK can buy 9 inf save $1. That’s 1 more at 2.
and you’ll only get that sz106 TT 33%.
UK can take Cpr turn 1 - $2 more. Total is now $35. Potentially $40 with sb bonus.
-
I have 24 inf inf, 1 art, 2 tanks, 6 fht, 1 tac vs 10 inf, 10 tanks, 5 fht, 5 tac, 1 bmb, 2 amphibs. (assuming I hit Scotland UK2 with 2 inf, 6 fht, 1 tac and lost 2 inf and 1 plane)
I have you at 34%. Run 10 000 times.
You’d take those odds?
I typed it in wrong. Here are the new numbers based on you having 10 TTs. Much worse with only 9.
-
Run your numbers again, using the following data:
SZ 106 cleared
SZ 110 Cleared
SZ 111 Cleared
SZ 112 cleared
France taken
Normandy/W. France taken (so you have none of those units to reinforce England with.)This is how England should normally look. THat should remove 2 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor, 1 Fighter from your setup in England making a HUGE difference in your numbers!
-
Not many games does Germany lose ALL it’s subs on Turn 1. Also, even if the UK takes Cpr on Turn 1, instead of taking a more rich target like Java or Sumatra(not the best UK strategy), that’s 36 IPC’s to spend on Turn 2. So, instead of buying 9 Inf, 1 Art. You’re buying 8 Inf, 2 Arm. In that scenario, that’s 24 Inf, 2 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending against SeaLion. Odds calculator says Germany wins : 67.2% of the time. So in that scenario, you’re only decreasing the odds of Germany winning by : 2.3%. Also by not building 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1, if Germany invades Scotland w/3 Inf 3 Art on Turn 2, then decides NOT to SeaLion, you’ll only have Inf to counter-attack. My recommendation is UK builds 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1, so as to have the max counter-attack force possible, not only against Scotland but future turns against Germany.
EVEN if the UK has 40 IPC’s to spend(highly unlikely). That’s 3 Arm, 7 Inf on Turn 2. Leaving 23 Inf, 4 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending. Odds calculator says Germany still wins : 56.3% of the time. Now of course, most good Axis players won’t risk SeaLion at this point but my point is, it’s still possible. AND, if the UK player is diverting all of it’s forces(i.e. all airforce) to the defense of the UK, then the Italian player is loving life). If the Axis see this Allied move on Turn 1(i.e. the Brit trans from SZ98, load up 2 French Inf and assuming all German subs die on Turn 1), then of course on Germany’s Turn 2, they don’t build 7 Transports but can still land in Scotland if they want and divert their attention over to Russia, still while threatening SeaLion and keeping the Brits down. Or, just divert all of their attention over to Russia.
-
I don’t really see 6 fighters, 1 tactical bomber for English defense.
2 in England
1 in Scotland
1 in Gibraltar
1 Fr. FighterYou’ll be down at least two aircraft from SZ 97, so I’ll assume the Maltese and SZ 98 aircraft.
-
Ok, first of all if you attack Scotland w/2 Inf, you’re down 2 Inf. You start w/7 Inf(1 in Canada, 1 in Scotland, 3 in the UK(one French) + 2 Frenchies in Africa. That’s 7. You build 9 Inf on Turn 1, save 1 IPC. That’s 16 Inf on Turn 1. Assuming you take Cpr on Turn 1, you would have 36 to build on Turn 2. Turn 2 you build 8 Inf, 2 Arm. That’s 24 Inf, 3 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending. BUT, if like you said, you attack Scotland w/2 Inf. That’s only 22 Inf defending, not 24.
And you only have 5 FTR’s, 1 Tac to attack Scotland, not 6 FTR’s. Remember one is French. AND, that’s assuming you get avg dicing in Scotland. That’s an awfully BIG risk if I get good dicing and you get bad dicing. I’ve seen this happen before. IMHO, it’s better to defend than risk losing precious FTR’s in that battle.
-
He’s assuming 1 FTR in Sco, 3 FTR’s in UK(one French), 1 FTR from Gib, 1 FTR from Mal, 1 Tac from SZ98.
-
He wouldn’t be attacking SZ97 in this scenario. Like I said, great for the Italians.
-
Well, I’m all confused because on the one hand everyone is stipulating that the Italian fleet is decimated by England and then all these aircraft are magically appearing in England again. =/
Here’s how I see it: 14 Ground units in Scotland on G3. 28 Ground Units, 11 Aircraft in England on G4. Perhaps more if England turtles since I’d get more transports to handle the influx so I could have up to 40 ground units and 11 aircraft in England on G4 if needed.
Now, if England is ignoring the Italians, why are the Italians not making the British pay for that?
-
We’re talking about not doing Taranto but trying to prevent SeaLion from happening. And yes of course, if the Brits don’t Taranto, then the Italians would make them pay.
-
Not many games does Germany lose ALL it’s subs on Turn 1. (I did not count on that bonus in my calculation)Also, even if the UK takes Cpr on Turn 1, instead of taking a more rich target like Java or Sumatra(not the best UK strategy), that’s 36 IPC’s to spend on Turn 2. So, instead of buying 9 Inf, 1 Art. You’re buying 8 Inf, 2 Arm. In that scenario, that’s 24 Inf, 2 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending against SeaLion. Odds calculator says Germany wins : 67.2% of the time. So in that scenario, you’re only decreasing the odds of Germany winning by : 2.3% (are you going with your 9 - 10 TTs with those odds?). Also by not building 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1, if Germany invades Scotland w/3 Inf 3 Art on Turn 2, then decides NOT to SeaLion, you’ll only have Inf to counter-attack (and all aircraft). My recommendation is UK builds 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1, so as to have the max counter-attack force possible, not only against Scotland but future turns against Germany (as all your aircraft from Gib makes Scotland, there is no need.).
EVEN if the UK has 40 IPC’s to spend(highly unlikely). That’s 3 Arm, 7 Inf on Turn 2. Leaving 23 Inf, 4 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending. Odds calculator says Germany still wins : 56.3% of the time. Now of course, most good Axis players won’t risk SeaLion at this point but my point is, it’s still possible (the point is, you wouldn’t). AND, if the UK player is diverting all of it’s forces(i.e. all airforce) to the defense of the UK, then the Italian player is loving life). If the Axis see this Allied move on Turn 1(i.e. the Brit trans from SZ98, load up 2 French Inf and assuming all German subs die on Turn 1), then of course on Germany’s Turn 2, they don’t build 7 Transports but can still land in Scotland if they want and divert their attention over to Russia, still while threatening SeaLion and keeping the Brits down. Or, just divert all of their attention over to Russia (the question was how to stop Sealion).
Suggested Topics
