L22 Pejon_88 (X) vs. Gamerman01 (A+15), BM4, game #2

[Pejon_88]

@pejon_88 My bad forgot the AAA shoots at maximum 3 air. If I’m not mistaken 60 bombers versus 20AAA should result in 30 attackers left, but calculator says 50? Adding an inf -> 49.71.

Am I thinking this entirely wrong?

[Pejon_88]

@pejon_88 1/6 + 1/6 +1/6 = 3/6, i.e 50% chance that 1AAA hits 1 air. Damn that means that there should be 40 attackers left, not 30 right?!

[gamerman01]

Survived with 2 planes and a battleship on a 59/35
That was even worse for me than I was thinking

[gamerman01]

No, I think you’re pretty confused.

1 AA vs 3 bombers should on average take down 1/2 a bomber

2 AA vs 6 bombers should on average take down 1 bomber

Now let me know what you’re seeing after trying a few more things.

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Yes looked now. +4TUV -> -50TUV :O

[gamerman01]

@pejon_88 said in L22 Pejon_88 (X) vs. Gamerman01 (A+15), BM4, game #2:

@pejon_88 My bad forgot the AAA shoots at maximum 3 air. If I’m not mistaken 60 bombers versus 20AAA should result in 30 attackers left, but calculator says 50? Adding an inf -> 49.71.

Am I thinking this entirely wrong?

Yeah, 20 AA against 60 bombers, so 60 rolls @ 1 or 10 hits. Sounds like your calculator is right. Is it Triple A?

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Screenshots:

Looks correct?

[gamerman01]

Yes it looks correct, thank you. Mine isn’t doing that. Good thing I didn’t start posting publicly

[gamerman01]

Now mine’s working. I’ll go back to the game I was playing when I noticed the error. Something’s strange…

[gamerman01]

It’s something in that game. I tried it with different countries, so it’s not like a UK Pacific bug or anything.

Wait, in that game it’s working for Germany vs. UK, but not vs. ANZAC

I had been doing a calculation on Japan vs. UK/ANZAC and realized the error, now it also doesn’t work Japan vs ANZAC

Germany vs. ANZAC works…
Japan’s not working against anyone. Can you replicate that? Japan on offense against AA?

[gamerman01]

US v anyone doesn’t work
Russia v anyone doesn’t work
Japan v anyone doesn’t work
Germany does work

OK, some combinations work and some don’t. Seems to depend on the combination of which powers??

[gamerman01]

OK, I don’t get it.

I did US vs. Germany like you did and it didn’t work for me.

Different combinations work, others don’t.

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 In our game I seem to get the same result wherever territory I run the calculator from.

[gamerman01]

Thanks a lot - wow, I’ll have to keep an eye out for that then

[gamerman01]

It’s bugging me every day that I don’t move - it’s a big one though. Will see this through until it’s time to give up

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Thanks for the heads up.

[gamerman01]

Triple move in progress - I have to continue later

C7 noncom.tsvg

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Ok!

[gamerman01]

UK7.tsvg

More of same :expressionless:

[Pejon_88]

Round: 7

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 1 artillery, 1 destroyer, 2 infantry and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        1 bomber, 4 fighters and 1 infantry moved from Egypt to Anglo Egyptian Sudan

    Combat - Italians
        Battle in Anglo Egyptian Sudan
            Italians attack with 1 bomber, 4 fighters and 1 infantry
            British defend with 1 mech_infantry
                Italians roll dice for 1 bomber, 4 fighters and 1 infantry in Anglo Egyptian Sudan, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 2,83 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Anglo Egyptian Sudan, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 mech_infantry owned by the British lost in Anglo Egyptian Sudan
            Italians win, taking Anglo Egyptian Sudan from British with 1 bomber, 4 fighters and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
            Casualties for British: 1 mech_infantry

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        1 bomber and 4 fighters moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to Egypt
        1 aaGun and 2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
        1 artillery moved from Ukraine to Rostov
        2 armour moved from Caucasus to Rostov
        1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to Rostov
        2 infantry moved from France to Western Germany

    Place Units - Italians
        1 destroyer and 1 submarine placed in 97 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Egypt

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 4
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,4,5,4,3,4
        Italians collect 18 PUs (4 lost to blockades); end with 18 PUs
        Objective Italians 2 Roman Empire: Italians met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 23 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Italians regular : 0,17
British regular : -0,33

I7.tsvg

Yeah, that was a horrible dice round for the Allies!