13L G40.2 Eggman (+3) v Gamerman01, game 2

[gamerman01]

@Eggman:

I’m not sure how I misunderstood your comment in your game with Jeff28.  You said the Allies may need to rely on sub-optimal attacks.  That means you are counting on luck by definition.

Look at it another way.  If the Allies won’t engage the Axis unless they have >50% odds in a battle, then Japan and Germany can remain strong, and focus more powerful attacks at their targets.

For example, on UK1 if you scramble into a 99% battle and with your 3 planes it’s still a 97% (or 3% for UK), that does not mean it’s a bad idea to scramble.  If you scramble 3 planes and take down 2 of Germany’s, that’s 2 less planes Germany has to deal with not only the UK, but the USSR.

It’s like the way the Fellowship attacked the cave troll in the Fellowship of the Ring movie.  One member of the fellowship was no match for the cave troll, but multiple smaller members distracting the troll and perhaps taking some hits allowed the other members to have an easier time.

In short, an effective allied strategy is to have each member take their licks, “taking one for the team”.  This is what wears down the Japanese and German war machines.  I’m not saying that you want to continually get the worst of the trades.  I’m saying you can’t be afraid of engaging Japan and Germany in some sub-optimal trades because you will weaken them for the other allies in doing so.

[gamerman01]

In the Pacific, for example, if ANZAC and USA are always afraid of sacrificing anything, Japan can get her way and does not get weakened.  They have to “get their hands dirty”.  Like the 2 fighters I flew to the Phillipines against Jeff.  They took out a couple of very key infantry.  If I hold the planes back and just keep trying to build up, meanwhile Japan has extra infantry and may be successful in taking down a target, and I don’t know what that target will be.  Those 2 infantry could make the difference in taking India and be a game-decider.  The American air couldn’t make it to India in time to defend, but they can help the Allied cause tremendously by taking out 1-2 Japanese ground units, which are scarce.

Same principle goes for Japanese destroyers.  They’re in short supply.  But if the Allies swarm, Japan can’t swat all the gnats, and will take a lot of shots.  Just keep watching, playing, and learning, friend  :-)

[gamerman01]

You could say that everyone “counts on luck”.  I sure didn’t expect to get mowed down in Z97 and Z109, doing little to no damage whatsoever.  If the dice don’t cooperate, it doesn’t matter what you’re doing.

Trust me, I know what I’m talking about.  I’ve played for years, and consistently win more than 80% of my games.  And if you don’t watch it, I’m going to win this one too, even with abyssmal dice in big fleet battles.  I am carving up Russia, and I don’t think you’ll stop me.  :-)

[Eqqman]

@Gamerman01:

Trust me, I know what I’m talking about.  I’ve played for years, and consistently win more than 80% of my games.  And if you don’t watch it, I’m going to win this one too, even with abysmal dice in big fleet battles.  I am carving up Russia, and I don’t think you’ll stop me.  :-)

I’ve also been playing A & A for 20 years.  I agree that while the Allies have the economic advantage, they can afford to lose far more IPC value in units than the Axis.  And I also agree that you have to be on the lookout for how a play by one member can give a huge boost to the others… for example, if you are willing to make India suffer, you can use their TT to make an even stronger attack on Ethiopia.  I’m also not above sacrificing a US fleet if I think ANZAC can come in and finish off the survivors.  Such things have to be chosen extremely carefully, however.  I often see that a full scramble UK1 might cost the Axis a matching number of planes, but this then leaves the UK with no planes on their turn.  Even if I successfully take out a matching number of planes, the opportunity cost is too high since there is nothing left for the SZ97 attack which is so vital to keeping Italy down.

I’m also convinced it is utterly impossible to keep Russia alive past round 6 unless the German player allows it, so you can safely assume any plans I make already include the loss of Russia at around that time.  If Moscow doesn’t go by turn 7, then I start to think I might win this game.  The vast majority of my losses come when I miscalculate the enemy’s air force and I end up losing a critical battle that I didn’t expect, not because my strategy was deficient.  That’s my own opinion, my opponents might have a different view!

[gamerman01]

:-)
Less talk, more action
I’ll be making another move tonight I think.

Yes, I think you’re starting to understand what I was trying to say to Jeff

I respectfully disagree about the necessity of UK to attack Z97.  If UK can take out 80% as many German planes as UK planes on UK1, that is a big victory. 
They can still take out Z96 easily without any of these planes.

I also disagree that you need to take Russia by round 7, and I disagree that you can’t stop Germany from taking Russia.  I’ve never lost Russia yet, and have faced concentrated land buys and maneuvers so aggressive they nearly abandoned the Western front.  I’ve taken France and held it, against one of the successful players on this site (consistently a winning league record).

[gamerman01]

Seems you’re one of those guys (there are several it seems) who thinks the game can often be won or lost in round 1, especially with results on G1 and UK1 with daring attacks on Italy’s fleet.

I disagree.

If you’re right, this game sucks because it’s often decided in round 1.

[Eqqman]

@Gamerman01:

They can still take out Z96 easily without any of these planes.

Yes, but the odds go down to near 80% if you get a full scramble.  In this case it’s risky, since even though you will win, the Italians won’t have too much trouble cleaning out the survivors and now you’ve lost your sea cover for Cairo, Italy gets it NO for no ships in the Med on I1.  This assumes Germany cleaned out the French fleet G1.  I don’t know if it is better for Germany to make sure that the French fleet is gone or to make sure that the UK is left with nothing but the SZ106 ships.  It probably depends on what you want to do afterwards- if you aren’t going to leave most of your air force down there until Italy has Cairo, then you probably have to sink the French for sure.

[gamerman01]

Z96

You can’t scramble to Z96.  You’re not even talking about the same thing I am.

Z96 is the one that went bad for you both games.

I’m saying, UK can always get Italy down to 2 transports without dealing with Z95 or Z97.  I’ve wiped Z95 in 2 games on UK1 with minimal losses (lucky to have minimal losses, but had very good odds on decimating the Italian fleet and air if they scramble)

Anyway, time for J2

[gamerman01]

Well, I took a good look at it tonight anyway…  Getting too late to finish it off tonight tho…

[Eqqman]

@Gamerman01:

I’m saying, UK can always get Italy down to 2 transports without dealing with Z95 or Z97.  I’ve wiped Z95 in 2 games on UK1 with minimal losses (lucky to have minimal losses, but had very good odds on decimating the Italian fleet and air if they scramble)

You’re right, I thought you were talking about the big fleet in SZ97.  I’m not sure why you would only bother to attack the smallest fleet in SZ96 since the combined 95 + 97 fleets are more than enough to clean out whatever UK ships are still there I1.

[gamerman01]

@Eggman:

@Gamerman01:

I’m saying, UK can always get Italy down to 2 transports without dealing with Z95 or Z97.  I’ve wiped Z95 in 2 games on UK1 with minimal losses (lucky to have minimal losses, but had very good odds on decimating the Italian fleet and air if they scramble)

You’re right, I thought you were talking about the big fleet in SZ97.  I’m not sure why you would only bother to attack the smallest fleet in SZ96 since the combined 95 + 97 fleets are more than enough to clean out whatever UK ships are still there I1.

Because then you have no fleet left.  Nice to have big ships available to go toward India if needed, or to hammer the Italian fleet once it gets away from its protective airbases with 3 fighters.  Have you ever even tried this?

[Eqqman]

@Gamerman01:

Because then you have no fleet left.  Nice to have big ships available to go toward India if needed, or to hammer the Italian fleet once it gets away from its protective airbases with 3 fighters.  Have you ever even tried this?

I’ve tried the fleet consolidation off of Gibraltar.  I didn’t care for it, since then Italy gets to consolidate its own fleet.  Alexandria is occupied and then the Italians can shuck men into Syria, forcing the UK to make some kind of attack on Iraq UK2 which may or may not weaken Cairo.  I haven’t found the price of allowing Italy an easier time to expand to be worth it.  It’s true that in 99% of my games the Brits are then sunk G2 if I do the SZ97 attack, but in such an attack, the German player is forced to lose planes.  I find this acceptable under the principle that we discussed before that you are likely weakening the ability of the Axis to keep doing such wipe-outs.

However, I’m not the kind of guy who ever takes his options completely off the table (maybe they are teetering on the edge).  Some circumstances might persuade me to give it another shot, such as in games like this where there is a G1 attack on Russia that leaves more than the usual number of Royal Navy ships alive.  Especially if this was followed up with a J1 attack that would allow me to start sending in US aid right away.  I haven’t considered the idea of sending the fleet out to help India though, which is an interesting option.  I’m not sure if an Indian Ocean consolidation can happen fast enough to make any kind of dent in Japan’s plans, but it might if they were banking on a late DoW to help Germany.

[gamerman01]

Yeah, I didn’t mean off Gibraltar

I don’t know - I really don’t have that many games of G40 under my belt.  Usually over the past few years they never last more than a couple of rounds so I can’t learn too much from them.

We also won’t learn much from this game no matter how it goes, because like you said 99% of the time your UK fleet is gone after round 1 or 2 or whatever, and I didn’t sink A SINGLE UK SHIP in two viable attacks on them!  I mean, when you get extreme dice you really can’t tell whether my ideas were good or not.

I do know this - I am not sold on G1 attacks.  I thought it was a lame-brained idea, but you can’t really scoff til you try it once, huh?

[gamerman01]

You’re next.  Hopefully tomorrow (Thursday)

[gamerman01]

@Gamerman01:

You’re next.

Well, except for a fairly quick R5 against Jeff since he posted….  :roll:
NOW you’re next

[gamerman01]

Agh!  I put this move off for good reason.  I find Japan VERY difficult to play.

OK, first of all I would like to change my buy.
Instead of a minor complex, buy a strat bomber.
Instead of an airbase, buy 3 INF, ARMOR

So I’m buying 4 INF, ARMOR, 2 SUB, BOMBER

I need scramble orders for Guam and Queensland

I had to add a carrier to Z54 to make Triple A let me make a legal move.

Carrier from 33 to 54 can pick up FTR, TAC from Z36.
Carrier from 36 can pick up FTR, TAC from Z33 by moving to Zone 42 or Zone 45
The other carrier from 36 is committed to picking up FTR and TAC from Java

All other planes can land on territory I controlled
If you have any questions, feel free to let me know.  I’m sure it’s all legal.

So there is an extra carrier in Z54 that I will NOT use in the battle.  They don’t roll any dice, and I will not assign any casualties to the second carrier, so it’s like it’s not there.  I will delete it when the battle is over.  I might need to roll the battle here on the thread, I suppose, depending on what happens…

Oh my goodness that move took me forever.

So, will the eggs be scrambled or fried?  :-)

[Eqqman]

@Gamerman01:

So, will the eggs be scrambled or fried?  :-)

Full scramble.

[Eqqman]

Correction, full scramble Queensland, not Guam.

[Eqqman]

Pick losses in SZ54 to give me max defense each round.

[gamerman01]

@Eggman:

Pick losses in SZ54 to give me max defense each round.

OK, no problem