28 IPC for Round 1: 6 Infantry + 1 Artillery
33 IPC for Round 2: 9 Infantry + 1 Armor
Leaves you with:
8 Infantry - Round 1
9 Infantry - Round 2
2 Infantry - Start
1 Infantry - Scotland
1 Infantry - Quebec
1 Armor - Quebec
1 Armor - Round 2
2 Fighters - Start
1 Fr. Fig - Start
1 Fighter - Scotland
1 Fighter - Gibraltar
1 Fighter - Malta
1 Artilry - Round 1
1 Fr. Inf - Start
Total:
22 Infantry
2 Armor
6 Fighters
1 AA Gun
Best Germany can bring:
10 Infantry
10 Armor
1 Battleship Bombardment
1 Cruiser Bombardment
1 Strategic Bomber
5 Fighters
5 Tactical Bombers
(Assumes Germany lost NO aircraft on Rounds 1 and 2. Hard to accomplish, but worst case for England - hence why I am using it.)
Given all that, I have:
Germany Wins: 34.2% of the time
England Wins: 53.4% of the time
No One Wins: 12.4% of the time
Of course, it’s safe to assume Germany will lose some planes on rounds 1 and 2. They are probably defending the Italian fleet, so that’s 1 or 2 lost.
Then there are the attacks on SZ 110 and 111, probably lose at least one more there. That’s 3 gone.
And if England gets the Med Tactical out, that’s 1 more unit for England.
That changes odds too:
Germany Wins: 3.7% of the time
England Wins: 87.4% of the time
No One Wins: 8.9% of the time.
Thus, if Germany is ultra conservative, there is only a 1 in 3 chance of them taking London against a 100% home guard build by London.
If Germany acts normally, there is virtually no way to take London if England builds everything at home.
Problem is, you cannot defend Africa very well this way.