How could Germany have won the war?


  • El Jefe posts:

    “forget the Master race crap.  Jesse Owens was a good lesson.”

    That episode is a great propaganda piece that keeps getting repeated by History, while if you look up the facts you will notice that Germany won more medals in 1936 than at any other time before or since… they had a huge lead over all other nations at this event… Just look at the results… This “little fact” has gotten the brush off for too long. I am not saying they performed better because they believed in the “nazi superman concept”, but it shows what happens when people belive in what the nation is doing and the direction its heading.


  • In order for us to determine if Germany and their allies could have produced a favorable outcome during the war, we have to examine two factors, one dependent on the other.  First, what were the war aims of the Axis powers?  In order to know how to define the conditions of victory, we have to establish German (for they are the guiding strategic force in the Axis) objectives.  Once those are ascertained, we can define an outcome that the German High Command would see as “successful”.

    For the duration of this post, I will refer to the collective strategic decision makers of each country as a monolithic entity. For the purposes of this discussion we can ignore the political infighting that was embedded with most nations, as the overall war goals are fairly consistent, the French collaborators notwithstanding.

    The Germans had a series of strategic objectives.  First and foremost, the Germans wanted to regain the Danzig region and restore a continuous national border.  To accomplish this met direct opposition with the Polish.  Warsaw would not agree to relinquish this territory.  This objective brings England and France into opposition with Germany, adding a second objective:  Germany must maintain a secure nation, without suffering a major defeat similar to the so-called armistice of the previous war.

    Given the German doctrines in place of a swift, decisive campaign, the German forces have to strike within a certain time window in order to avoid a prolonged conflict.  The Polish territorial question came to a head in the summer of 1939.  Had the Germans waited to initiate an attack against the Allied armies, rather than strike in the late spring/early summer of 1940, then the likelihood of increased Allied industrial production could negate the superior training and doctrines of the German army.  As is stood, the German armor was outnumbered by the French armor.  Whether the French would have corrected their policy of dispersed armor is impossible to surmise, but they could have produced more tanks had the Germans waited to attack later than 1940.  Delaying the start of conflict with any of the belligerent parties would have seriously compromised the German capability to deliver a swift and decisive victory.

    Once the Allied forces on the continent were defeated, the Germans were left with one battlefield:  England.  The German strategy of crippling the capacity of the Royal Air Force was a sound one.  It is here that we find an opportunity for the Germans to change the outcome of their conflict.  Had the Germans maintained a policy of destroying the logistical chain supporting the RAF, and their ability to house planes at air bases, the Germans could have fared better in crippling British industrial capacity.

    Here we see the German’s first strategic flaw.  They have eliminated the French as a decisive military force, but for how long?  The continued existence of Britain leaves an unstable political situation in Western Europe.  But, even if the Germans land on the coast of England, and as in Thomas Mackey’s Invasion! force a capitulation of mainland England, what prevents the Americans from entering the war and attempting to aid Canada, South Africa, and the rest of the Commonwealth from liberating England and eventually France?  It is easy to say that Germany can avoid fighting America for a time after Pearl Harbor by not becoming Japan’s co-belligerent, but if the German position on the European continent becomes too strong, would the Americans have eventually intervened?

    This conundrum doesn’t even take into account the great bear lurking to the east of Germany.  Russia’s strategic importance and their affect on outcomes is a whole other topic, one that I will examine in a later posting, particularly after suppertime.


  • “First, what were the war aims of the Axis powers?  In order to know how to define the conditions of victory, we have to establish German (for they are the guiding strategic force in the Axis) objectives.  Once those are ascertained, we can define an outcome that the German High Command would see as “successful”.”

    1. Create conditions necessary to carry the war to UK, following the demise of Stalins Russia
    2. Set up Germany so the “next generation” can take on Amerika by direct invasion.
    3. Set up germany to rebuild Europe from the ground up with huge public works projects on a scale never seen before making Germania the centerpiece of the new world.
    4. Divide the world along the 40th parallel, with japan on the eastern side.
    5. Become an episode of Star Trek called “Patterns of Force”
    6. Remake “Springtime for Hitler” the way it was meant to be shown.

  • @ncscswitch:

    Japan had a chance… in late December and January 1941… had that fleet come on to California and knocked out San Diego, LA and San Francisco, and a few crack troops in Panama…  US sues for peace…

    I disagree the US would have sued for peace had this scenario happened, that generation of Americans were tough (probably because they lived through the Great Depression).

    The Japanese were hoping they could establish control over the Far East (i.e. consolidate their gains in Dutch East Indies for oil) before the US was able to rebuild the fleet.  They were wrong on two counts

    1. They were not able to establish control soon enough and when they did, US submarines sank most of the Japanese merchant marine and more importantly,
    2. The US did not have to rebuild their fleet because the Japanese missed the Aircraft carriers.

    The attack proved the Aircraft Carrier was the decisive naval unit and that battleships were obsolete and mostly useless.  So not sinking the US carriers at Pearl but sinking the battleships only forced the US to fight efficiently - with their carriers.  This the US learned (thanks to Pearl) before even the Japanese although both sides continued to build battleships.

    Had they sunk the US carriers and destroyed the supplies in Hawaii, the US would have been out of the Pacific war for a year or two which would have resulted in the war itself lasting at least two additional years…maybe more.  But in the end, the Japanese could never hope to keep up with US industrial production which at the time exceeded that of Germany, Japan, and Italy combined and unless the US gave up (perhaps if the Japanese perfected the A-bomb first and had a way to deliver this to the W. Coast) this part of the war was predetermined based on the economics involved.

    Germany, IMO,  on the other hand could have had sufficient forces (had Russia fallen) to keep the Allies out of Fortress Europe as the combined German/Russian/European production might have been enough to match any US/UK attacks since it is easier to defend than to attack.


  • Germany could have won the war only under the following conditions:

    1. Hitler stays out of the military operations and allows the military to run the show.

    Of course his insanity and hubris would never allow this, but to me it’s the only answer.

    2. A corollary- Goering and other crackpots are not allowed to make military decisions.

    The diversion of Luftwaffe resources from destroying planes, airfields and radar to bombing London (Goering’s decision) was widely acclaimed to be the breathing space which allowed the RAF to recover. This decision again was based on pure irrationality- the British could be subdued and would sue for peace if enough suffering was inflicted on the populace. The only way Britain would be subdued would be either imminent or actual invasion, to which the main precursor was the destuction of British airpower.

    From this follows two of the most significant decisions on the Ost Front- the diversion of Army Group Center to the south because of Hitler’s stated goal of destroying the bulk of the Russian Army in the field, and secondly the disaster of Stalingrad- which was largely political in motivation. What the hell was he thinking not pulling out the bulk of the Sixth Army when he had a chance? Pure pride, which cometh before the fall. Turning point on the front and of the war.

    Luckily for the world Hitler wasn’t a rational man, and wouldn’t allow those who had a measure of military sense to call the shots.


  • A corollary- Goering and other crackpots are not allowed to make military decisions.

    But in that case you refer to point #1 … “Other crackpots”= Hitler

    Goering was a total disaster… very smart man however…damm near genius, but his pride in all things destroyed anything that was possible for him.

    However if they had someone like Reinhard Heydrich… that would have been scary for humanity as his brain served and toiled for destruction without reservations… He was the black prince of darkness if their ever was one. He would have “allowed” Germany to win the war without his personal interference.


  • The Germans lost WWII on every tactical front, for reasons that are blamed on der Furher to just dumb luck on the part of the Allies.  They lost due to poor aircraft, they lost due to poor tanks, they lost due to poor shipbuilding, they lost due to poor logistical planning, they lost due to manufacturing bravado.  Before anyone says “Hey the Tiger Tank kicks butt, or the Me262 was the best plane in the world” please note that mistakes related to those very items caused the failure that was in the works when the Invasion of France too place.  Wrong conclusions were drawn from early victories and it cost them quite a bit.

    Poor Aircraft - The Me109 was equal to the Spit I only at the beginning of the war.  It was on its heels from that point on.  German bombers were terrible.  The Stuka was obsolete in 1939 (did you know it had a top speed of 187 MPH?).

    Poor Armor - 37mm cannon on the PzKwIII couldnt not kill French Tanks.  Only 40 tanks were upgraded to 50mm guns for the invasion of Russia.  Tigers (PzKwVI), Panther PzKWV) were not tested properly and were trounced at operation Citadel (Kursk).  Did you know Hitler demanded Tigers stick together with no infantry support?  The Tigers also did not have MG’s on board at that time.  The Panther had awful transmission issues early on.  These problems were solved, but it was way too late.

    Shipbuilding - Bismark, need I say more?

    Logistics - Africa, Eastern Front (Stalingrad), Battle of the Bulge….common theme?

    Manufacturing - War production was almost completely stopped in December 1941.

    Many people take pride in what the Germans did, but the more I learn, the more embarassing it gets.


  • The RAF’s retention of downed pilots kept them in the fight as replacement fighters arrived from the US and Canada.

    The US recovered pilots (US and Jap) after the Battle of the Coral Sea. 
    It became standard policy after Midway. 
    These pilots gained skill and kills and soon dominated the air.  They were often outnumbered in the air in dogfights vs the Jap fighters.  But these Jap fighters had only a fraction of the flight time of the Pearl Harbor, Coral Sea, and Midway veterans.  The inexperience resulted in loopsided defeats.  The Jap commanders did not figure it out until it was too late.

    Ger and Japan built thousands of fighters after the loss of skilled pilots, but the bulk pilot skill differential was soon set against them.

    People are not born with wings, or 3-D maneuvering / positioning instincts.

    The Axis leaders saw air power as only industrial output without factoring in the thousands of hours of flight time to adequately train pilots to be victorious over their enemies.

    WWI was deadlocked in attritional ground warfare.  WWII was won by mobility.  Air mobility gave you local supremacy.  Sea mobility gave you range.  Ground mobility allows your troops to fight more efficiently.  Both sea and ground mobility are subject to air supremacy.


  • The ability to build and sustain a rotating pilot base was one of many advantages that the U.S. enjoyed during the war.  The ability to recover downed pilots is an inherent advantage of fighting either at sea or over your own territory.  As an aggressor, Germany cannot expect to recover more than a slim percentage of its pilots shot down in action over enemy territory. That’s a factor Germany has to accept in its overall strategy.


  • The British where known for caring more about the loss of life than matterial. Hitler would ask “How many tanks did we loose?” Churchill would ask “How many men did we loose?”

    Stalin would ask “How many divisions did we loose?”


  • I would say that Germany would have won the war by not Attacking both Russia and Poland. My reasons are simple. Germany had most of Europe locked down since he didn’t have to worry about his back with Russia and even if later he had to deal with Russia it would be only one or 2 fronts for Germany as oppose to many. Plus the world as a whole was still feeling the after shocks of The Great War that is one of the main reasons why America wanted to stay out of the “European Conflict”. plus attacking Poland brought more Nations into the war than when Germany invaded France.  As far as Hitler’s sanity goes, it is a  fact that his men were more afraid of him than anything else which in some Cases made them fight better, True he could’ve let his Generals do their job since he had some of the best. I know my reasons are not as informative as most of your but sometimes the simple or basics reasons are enough.


  • I would say that Germany would have won the war by not Attacking both Russia and Poland. My reasons are simple. Germany had most of Europe locked down since he didn’t have to worry about his back with Russia and even if later he had to deal with Russia it would be only one or 2 fronts for Germany as oppose to many. Plus the world as a whole was still feeling the after shocks of The Great War that is one of the main reasons why America wanted to stay out of the “European Conflict”. plus attacking Poland brought more Nations into the war than when Germany invaded France.  As far as Hitler’s sanity goes, it is a  fact that his men were more afraid of him than anything else which in some Cases made them fight better, True he could’ve let his Generals do their job since he had some of the best. I know my reasons are not as informative as most of your but sometimes the simple or basics reasons are enough.

    I’m sorry but i disagree. If Germany didn’t attack Poland as you state then how was it even possible to win the war? Are you saying to leave Polands 1 million man army alone in Germany’s back while they attack France?  Once France was taken out ( i think it was possible in 1939 to finish off the French as long as the germans used the same plan as they did in May 1940). They would now be at war with England, Poland, while Stalin would have a buffer state with a million men in front of the reorganizing Soviet Armies. Germany is such an insular position would now not have a partner in the Soviets to split up Poland. AS you may know Stalin knew that eventually Germany would be knocking on Stalins front door but had hoped to position her diplomacy in order to make Germany feel that it was free to attack France. Stalin felt that Germany’s strength would be sapped in another war of attrition with the western  democracies and this satisfies the Soviet objectives by letting both her natural enemies destroy each other. This would have freed up Stalin to embark on attacking Finland with even greater resolve because Germany would conceivably be involved in western Europe for some time.

    Stalin was preparing to attack Germanyy by the late 1941 at the earliest he authorized Zhukov to prepare the necessary planes and was building up for such an attack. That is an unstated reason in why German made plans for Barbarossa. Of course History books wont print that. Stalin latter decided that the preparations would take place in spring of 1942.

    anyway The german plan was correct except they needed a plan to immediately invade England in late May 1940 before the allies could catch their collective breath. Uk was in total disarray and was in no position to thwart such an audacious plan. France was allready beaten after the BEF failed at Arras. It was a matter of time to finish off France. thus the emphasis was to build those landing craft and carry out the plan. With the BEF moving toward Dunkirk the Germans could have been in London eating at the Savoy with Oswald Mosley.


  • Germany could have won the war if…

    • They hadn’t started killing the Jews, it was wrong on so many levels: morally, economicly, and militarilly

    • They had invaded Britain in and gone through with Sealion to force Britain to the peace table, demanding that they turnover possession of Egypt and the Middle East so the Afrika Korp could attack through the Caucasus.  In World War I Rommel was a skilled junior officer in a mountain division :-D

    • They had all generals ignore Hitler’s military strategy on any level lower than “Attack (insert country name)”.Â

    • They voided the alliance with Japan. The United States would have seen it as another European war. Do nothing to anger the US. If a ship is accidently sunk, pay for the ship and its cargo.

  • 2007 AAR League

    They should of firstly in britain not been bombing cities because that didnt have the desired effect.  They should of continued to pummel the RAF’s bases and planes.  There is a lot of speculation that if they had done this the battle for the skies would have been won.

    Then dont invade England just contain it.

    Could have gotten around 100,000 british troops at dunkirk if they would have kept up the attack.  Should have in hindsight.

    No playing in the big sandbox.  Those resources should have been used in the push into the USSR.

    Attack headlong into the USSR .  Forget pushing the northern front.  Just contain it.  Forget leningrad, just let it be.  Focus on taking moscow first.  The germans used 3 armies, a north, center, and south army when they invaded.  Should of had one huge army to smash into moscow deploying holding units on your flanks of the center front.  As soon as moscow was reached, attack south to get the oil fields.  If moscow were taken i would argue that stalin would have sued for peace as he moved the capital forther east.  Maybe Omsk.  Anyway, stalin believed in world communism and if he were smashed he would think world communism would fail and that couldnt happen on his watch.  He would of tried to stay alive and in charge farther east to further try to change the world with more time.


  • Stalin did in fact send peace feelers to see what the German terms for surrender would be in oct 41


  • Germany would have won the war if Hitler had allowed his Generals more control over their own armies rather than Hitler pretend to be a General himself and make tactical decisions.  Hitler not allowing General Paulus to break out of the Stalingrad pocket in time to save his army was disastrous.  If he would have let his Generals do what they do best, perhaps Germany would have won.  In the end, Hitler blamed his defeat on his “tools” (Generals) rather than himself.

  • 2007 AAR League

    Hitler at the begining drew up the plans himself for the attack into the lowlands and norway.  I think, not sure, even france.  The generals even saw how well it went and gave him huge credit and respect.  Remember hitler did win the Iron Cross.  It takes a badass.


  • I say, don’t forget to bring your heavy jackets to the russian front in the winter of 41/42!! It gets mighty cold up there. You don’t want to lose the initiative and have the russians counterattack while their dressed warmly, and your’e freezing your nuts off!


  • But that would not be necessary if Herr Hitler didn’t invade Yugoslavia or that nation didn’t throw out its pro-fascist government. Or even if Hitler made peace with his position in the fall of 1941.


  • Hitler’s plan was simple–to complete Fortress Europe. He wanted to blockade Britain to submission and crush the red armies so the US would face a Europe impossible to attack. However the U-boat menace was soon tamed, and the Soviets drove the Jerrys back at Stalingrad. Also, they developed the V-2s and Me 262s near at the end of the war. And they didn’t spend resources on nuclear weapons. So it was possible they could have won the war, but many factors contributed to their demise.

Suggested Topics

  • 8
  • 9
  • 328
  • 13
  • 5
  • 12
  • 16
  • 11
Axis & Allies Boardgaming Custom Painted Miniatures

31

Online

17.0k

Users

39.3k

Topics

1.7m

Posts