Russia opening move?

[Hobbes]

@Mallery29:

And is Germany really going to hit WRUS? No because the US/UK will have a fleet for Germany on turn 3, and nothing to defend itself with (considering it would lose its Air Force).

Aggressive German players can and will hit West Russia. Even if Caucasus/Moscow doesn’t fall to the Germans this attack is enough to punch the Russians out for the Japanese knock-out and Germany merely needs to slow down the UK/US, who will have to choose between building fleet/units for Europe or keeping India out of the Japanese grasp.

[Mallery29]

I don’t think that will go as well as you think with the Indian IC coming into play now….42.1, yeah, I would definietly agree to go all in against Russia…but the reinforcements for Japan are going to be a long way off with E. Indies out and India threatening to advance/US Pacific involvement. Â

Go ahead and send the FTR to Egypt, just be prepared to not take Ukraine.

[Hobbes]

@Mallery29:

I don’t think that will go as well as you think with the Indian IC coming into play now….42.1, yeah, I would definietly agree to go all in against Russia…but the reinforcements for Japan are going to be a long way off with E. Indies out and India threatening to advance/US Pacific involvement.

If the Allies go KJF after a successful G1 attack then Germany should be able to conquer Caucasus and then Russia. It’s impossible for the Russians match up Germany’s production.

Perhaps it is more clear this way: if West Russia is lost on G1, then the Soviets lose a total of 2 AAG, 12 INF, 3 ART and 4 ARM on round 1, or 3/4s of the value of their starting ground units, leaving them only 9 INF, 5 of which will be in Yakut. The Germans will lose a total of 12 INF, 2 ART and 4 ARM, plus planes on the R1 attacks and on going after WR but that still leaves them with an additional 13+ INF and 5+ ARM to deploy against Russia on G1/G2 on combat and non-combat moves, like retaking and stacking Ukraine.

Germany spends about half its ground force and most of its airforce and in return the Soviets lose 3/4s of their ground force and their income and they are earning -6 IPC than Germany due to losing access to Karelia, Belorussia and Ukraine. Germany’s income goes to 42 IPCs or more, while Soviet income is capped to 24 IPC.

After that, either Japan or Germany can go and get Moscow while the other stalls the UK/US.

[Mallery29]

If you G1 WRussia, I assume you would probably send your SS after the US DD and the 2SS/CA after the UK BB/SS, UK CA defeated by German BB (I possibly assume but could easily be wrong that you would go 7inf/2art/SS/tank?…so
UK1: 2inf/art, save the rest. Finish of German CA, send Bomber and DD after BB, sink German SS off EUS w/DD
US1: 4DD, FTR.
G2: Redeploy airforce/SS to protect coast, position SS for eminent invasion
UK2: inf/art/tank, save the rest
US2: 2trans/2DD, NCM to Canada (spend on Pac w/rest)
G3: Close in on WRUS/Caucus. Russia continues buildup, position SS for invasion
UK3: Drop 2CVs, 1trans, 1CA, 3inf India (might have about 10 left for flex spending for troops)
US3: Reinforce UK fleet with the 4DD/FTRs. (continue to split money 50/50)

US should be building the shuck, and UK can counter w/troops now too…I’m sure France or Holland is defended, but you can’t defend both, especially since you are focused on the Bear…Russia just needs to hold long enough to wittle down France/Holland defense to plant marker…Don’t know what your German buys would be but will have to read after poker…Caucus may be getting pinched, but India should be able to grow legs here soon.

[Hobbes]

@Mallery29:

If you G1 WRussia, I assume you would probably send your SS after the US DD and the 2SS/CA after the UK BB/SS, UK CA defeated by German BB (I possibly assume but could easily be wrong that you would go 7inf/2art/SS/tank?…

You need 3 subs to SZ7… imagining that I’d use all the planes on WR (which may not be required if some Soviets attacks go back on R1) then the deciding factor is what to do with the SZ15 fleet - either send it to land on Ukraine/Caucasus or to hit the cruiser and take Gibraltar, with 1 sub assisting.

My buy would also either be 12 INF, 1 ART or 4 INF, 1 ART, 4 ARM, depending on my mid/long term plans.

so
UK1: 2inf/art, save the rest. Finish of German CA, send Bomber and DD after BB, sink German SS off EUS w/DD
US1: 4DD, FTR.
G2: Redeploy airforce/SS to protect coast, position SS for eminent invasion
UK2: inf/art/tank, save the rest
US2: 2trans/2DD, NCM to Canada (spend on Pac w/rest)
G3: Close in on WRUS/Caucus. Russia continues buildup, position SS for invasion
UK3: Drop 2CVs, 1trans, 1CA, 3inf India (might have about 10 left for flex spending for troops)
US3: Reinforce UK fleet with the 4DD/FTRs. (continue to split money 50/50)

US should be building the shuck, and UK can counter w/troops now too…I’m sure France or Holland is defended, but you can’t defend both, especially since you are focused on the Bear…Russia just needs to hold long enough to wittle down France/Holland defense to plant marker…Don’t know what your German buys would be but will have to read after poker…Caucus may be getting pinched, but India should be able to grow legs here soon

After killing WR on G1, the optimal Axis strategy requires Germany is to move on G2/3 a stack to West Russia that the Soviets can’t destroy, with assistance from Japanese fighters, if necessary. Then the Soviets are forced to permanently lose Caucasus to the Axis or lose Russia.
Now, add to it also a Japanese push of about 10 ground units that reach Kazakh by J3 and the whole Soviet defense can shatter like broken glass.

[Mallery29]

@Hobbes:

@Mallery29:

If you G1 WRussia, I assume you would probably send your SS after the US DD and the 2SS/CA after the UK BB/SS, UK CA defeated by German BB (I possibly assume but could easily be wrong that you would go 7inf/2art/SS/tank?…

You need 3 subs to SZ7… imagining that I’d use all the planes on WR (which may not be required if some Soviets attacks go back on R1) then the deciding factor is what to do with the SZ15 fleet - either send it to land on Ukraine/Caucasus or to hit the cruiser and take Gibraltar, with 1 sub assisting.
units that reach Kazakh by J3 and the whole Soviet defense can shatter like broken glass.

That’s definitely a solid buy, I guess it would depend on how bad the Russians hurt your one wave of attacks…so does the remaining SS hit something else?  I’m guessing the CA stays in the Baltic to hit Karelia.  I guess you aren’t too concerend about an advancing India/US backdoor though?  4 FTRs is nice…definitely need the FTRs to help out (didn’t help me last week, but I got rolled by the dice instead of the rolling…)  But sounds like your planes will be off the Atlantic front and probably will lose 2SS on the BB/SS.

Not saying the odds would hurt your airforce, but any loss of 2 or more planes on AA would be the end of the Germans (considering you should lose one on Ukraine attack).  Japanese or no Japanese, I don’t think Berlin would hold long.

[AxisBrutality]

@Mallery29:

AxisBrutality…you aren’t using the calculator correctly…did you forget the two AA guns? � Try that math please before you spew more frivolous stuff out here…it’s 54% in Russia’s favor…
Second, don’t send the art to Ukraine…I would use it in West Russia…yeah, you sack two tanks, but you can still take Ukraine. � But people could go the other way and keep the tank in WRUS and send the art to die in Ukraine…it really doesn’t matter, as long as you hit WRUS and Ukraine. � And is Germany really going to hit WRUS? No because the US/UK will have a fleet for Germany on turn 3, and nothing to defend itself with (considering it would lose its Air Force).

It’s obvious to me you haven’t read ANYTHING said in these threads over the last few days.

Ok, this is getting nowhere, i am not in the mood to sit here and fight and argue. I dont know sh1t according to You, fine, i am out of here. I can’t discuss with those who think They can take out e-indies with 1 fighter only, nor can i accept 1 or more German tanks running around in Afrika. Egypt and India area hold the the key to half uk income. Yes, i did forget 2 AAA, which still does not change anything i said . Ukraine Needs to go, the only differce is that stack is Now safe with 2 AAA . But that didn’t change the fact that Ukraine has to go and i can take it with 3 inf , 1 art, 3 tank and 1 fighter. 85% chance win for russia. Then You can run the calc to see how far You can Get with only 1 fighter against e-indies. Have fun, i am out of here, completely impossible to discuss, some here are more obsessed with arguing for fun instead of adjusting and being open minded like i was, sending that it is necessary to take 1 fighter from germany and save Egypt as it is also important to destroy east indies. Anyway, good Luck on taking out east indies with 1 fighter and having germans drive around whole africa.

[UrJohn]

@AxisBrutality:

Ok, this is getting nowhere, i am not in the mood to sit here and fight and argue. I dont know sh1t according to You, fine, i am out of here.

Darn it! I was really enjoying the debate!

[Mallery29]

Odds change when you can sack two AAs…they change enough to make it difficult for the Germans to go after WRUS…you tried saying it was guaranteed kill…I begged to differ.  Hobbes says a aggressive German player would go after it…I think he is right to a point, but I don’t think it’s as advantageous as it was in 42.1.  The AA guns could sink the Axis in Rd1.  Loss of half the Air Force on Rd 1 would almost be like not taking France in Global.  I’m sorry you feel that way Axis, but you mocked everything I said, and I had to fight through it to prove you wrong (Alaska IC, BBs in India, etc).

[Hobbes]

@Mallery29:

Odds change when you can sack two AAs…they change enough to make it difficult for the Germans to go after WRUS…you tried saying it was guaranteed kill…I begged to differ.  Hobbes says a aggressive German player would go after it…I think he is right to a point, but I don’t think it’s as advantageous as it was in 42.1.  The AA guns could sink the Axis in Rd1.  Loss of half the Air Force on Rd 1 would almost be like not taking France in Global./quote]

AAs on 42.2 make the West Russia attack actually easier. If you bring 7 planes the AAs will only shoot at 6. To protect WRus both AAs will have to be there, meaning that if Ukraine wasn’t attacked then either Caucasus will be without AA, or the AAs will be split between both territories and will only shoot at 3 planes on each attack.

[Mallery29]

The point was to have WRus and Ukraine attacked R1 and load up in WRus (not a only WRus all-in, that’s a bad idea on Russia’s part IMHO)…not a fan of the barely hitting WRus…the stack in WRus with Ukraine hit gives 6 total planes to attack with WRus, but if those 2AA hit a number of planes with some luck of the dice, the game could be over without it getting past Rd1…that’s all I’m saying.

I think this is where the confusion is at…Germany to attack the WRus stack without having the Ukraine units would not be a smart move by Germany…could do it to weaken the Russian stack, but at what cost/risk to its own stack and by allowing the allies to toy around in the Atlantic. � Definitely a HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD type scenario, but this could easily blow up in the Axis face right away…

I think the general consensus is to attack Ukraine, so the point of view has to be taken with Ukraine out of commision. � Do you attack WRus now as Germany on G1? � I think even just doing 1 round of attacks and then retreating is not worth it…not going to risk it with a 55% chance of losing (you’d probably only eliminate the Russian inf while losing the inf/tanks on the attack with a distinct possibilty of losing FTRs…again, any luck roll by the AAs would be way too costly and game over for the Axis).

If this was JUST an all out WRus attack (by Russia), I would proably hit WRus G1 too (ignoring Caucus) and deal with the Atlantic on G2.

[Hobbes]

@Mallery29:

The point was to have WRus and Ukraine attacked R1 and load up in WRus (not a only WRus all-in, that’s a bad idea on Russia’s part IMHO)…not a fan of the barely hitting WRus…the stack in WRus with Ukraine hit gives 6 total planes to attack with WRus, but if those 2AA hit a number of planes with some luck of the dice, the game could be over without it getting past Rd1…that’s all I’m saying.

I think this is where the confusion is at…Germany to attack the WRus stack without having the Ukraine units would not be a smart move by Germany…could do it to weaken the Russian stack, but at what cost/risk to its own stack and by allowing the allies to toy around in the Atlantic. � Definitely a HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD type scenario, but this could easily blow up in the Axis face right away…

I think the general consensus is to attack Ukraine, so the point of view has to be taken with Ukraine out of commision. � Do you attack WRus now as Germany on G1? � I think even just doing 1 round of attacks and then retreating is not worth it…not going to risk it with a 55% chance of losing (you’d probably only eliminate the Russian inf while losing the inf/tanks on the attack with a distinct possibilty of losing FTRs).

If this was JUST an all out WRus attack (by Russia), I would proably hit WRus G1 too (ignoring Caucus) and deal with the Atlantic on G2.

Germany waits until the end of the Soviet round to decide. What territories did the Russians attack and what were the losses. Then it decides if it wants to attack West Russia or not, based on those factors. That’s why I have those tables already from 1st Ed., I can easily check the odds, based on territories attacked and Soviet casualties, and decide if it is worthwhile or not.
The WR + UKR Soviet opening is the best to prevent a G1 WR attack but the dice ultimately decide - if the Russians have more than 3 losses on WR or can’t clear UKR of German units then it can be worthwhile for the Germans to go after WR.

[Mallery29]

Saw the tables (nice job btw), and understand all…

[Imperious Leader]

Ukraine attack is no good.

You lose them for nothing when you could have taken Finland and probably protected those army’s from demise on g1. Finland attack kills the same number of Germans.

Of course the German player can invade Finland devoting naval units, but the idea is to do anything to tempt the German player to not killing UK naval on G1.

[Hobbes]

@Imperious:

Ukraine attack is no good.

You lose them for nothing when you could have taken Finland and probably protected those army’s from demise on g1. Finland attack kills the same number of Germans.

Of course the German player can invade Finland devoting naval units, but the idea is to do anything to tempt the German player to not killing UK naval on G1.

If Soviets go after Finland then they’ll most likely lose West Russia on G1 (just check the odds) and Germany can still sink SZ7 and SZ14, without needing any of its planes.

[Mallery29]

@Imperious:

Ukraine attack is no good.

You lose them for nothing when you could have taken Finland and probably protected those army’s from demise on g1. Finland attack kills the same number of Germans.

How are 3 German inf > 3inf/art/tank/FTR?   Without Karelian help in WRus, WRus will fall along with Karelia and you’ll have your troops in Finland surrounded….Ukraine or Bust.

[UrJohn]

@Imperious:

Ukraine attack is no good.

You lose them for nothing when you could have taken Finland and probably protected those army’s from demise on g1. Finland attack kills the same number of Germans.

Of course the German player can invade Finland devoting naval units, but the idea is to do anything to tempt the German player to not killing UK naval on G1.

My knee-jerk reaction is that the Finland attack sucks, but I admit that I’m fallible and I could be mistaken. I’d love to hear exactly what the opening move you suggest is, and I’ll be happy to analyze it and/or try it a couple times to see how it plays out.

The only real weakness with the move I see is it lets the German player basically ignore Karelia and head South, doing some combination of the following: attack West Russia, attack Caucasus, and/or stack Ukraine.

[Hobbes]

@UrJohn:

My knee-jerk reaction is that the Finland attack sucks, but I admit that I’m fallible and I could be mistaken. I’d love to hear exactly what the opening move you suggest is, and I’ll be happy to analyze it and/or try it a couple times to see how it plays out.

The only real weakness with the move I see is it lets the German player basically ignore Karelia and head South, doing some combination of the following: attack West Russia, attack Caucasus, and/or stack Ukraine.

Check the table above on my previous post. If the Soviets attack Finland and West Russia on R1, then they don’t have enough units leftover on West Russia to defend against a German counterattack on G1, even if they move everything to West Russia, assuming average losses. Germany then simply attacks WR, takes Finland, Karelia and stacks Ukraine. Then Caucasus falls on G3-4.
But if you attack Belorussia instead then you kill the same amount of infantry and earn 2 IPC instead of 1 (on Finland). So why would anyone want to attack Finland with Russia on G1?

[MistuhJay]

@Mallery29:

I think the general consensus is to attack Ukraine, so the point of view has to be taken with Ukraine out of commision. � Do you attack WRus now as Germany on G1? � I think even just doing 1 round of attacks and then retreating is not worth it…not going to risk it with a 55% chance of losing (you’d probably only eliminate the Russian inf while losing the inf/tanks on the attack with a distinct possibilty of losing FTRs…again, any luck roll by the AAs would be way too costly and game over for the Axis).

If this was JUST an all out WRus attack (by Russia), I would proably hit WRus G1 too (ignoring Caucus) and deal with the Atlantic on G2.

If I understand correctly, you’re saying you wouldn’t hit WR on G1 provided the Russians hit Ukraine.  Then what would you suggest Germany do in such a situation?  Possibly take Kar, retake Ukr?

[UrJohn]

@MistuhJay:

If I understand correctly, you’re saying you wouldn’t hit WR on G1 provided the Russians hit Ukraine.  Then what would you suggest Germany do in such a situation?  Possibly take Kar, retake Ukr?

We’re actually pretty much down to sending everything that can reach to Ukraine except FTR from Russia and sending everything else to West Russia including 2 AAA in NCM.