Wheatbeer (axis) vs kilroynothere (allies) G40 A3

[wheatbeer]

forgot the aaa

SZ91

3 sub, 1 dest, 1 cru, 3 fig, 1 bsh, 1 tact

Rolls: 4@2 4@3 2@4; Total Hits: 54@2: (2, 3, 4, 1)4@3: (3, 4, 4, 2)2@4: (6, 4)

3 sub, 3 dest, 1 carrier, 1 tact, 1 cru, 1 bsh, 1 fig

Rolls: 3@1 4@2 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 33@1: (5, 5, 3)4@2: (3, 2, 6, 5)2@3: (2, 4)2@4: (2, 5)

[wheatbeer]

assuming max defense for Allied: damages to bsh and carrier, loss of subs
Germany sinks carrier, damages bsh

SZ91 r2

A 3 sub, 1 dest, 1 cru, 3 fig, 1 damaged bsh, 1 tact

Rolls: 4@2 4@3 2@4; Total Hits: 64@2: (1, 1, 4, 1)4@3: (2, 2, 5, 4)2@4: (4, 5)

D 3 dest, 1 damaged carrier, 1 tact, 1 cru, 1 damaged bsh, 1 fig

Rolls: 4@2 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 54@2: (4, 3, 2, 2)2@3: (3, 5)2@4: (1, 4)

[wheatbeer]

deadly round for both of us

again assuming max defense

SZ91 r3

A 1 cru, 2 fig, 1 damaged bsh, 1 tact

Rolls: 3@3 2@4; Total Hits: 33@3: (3, 6, 3)2@4: (5, 2)

D 1 damaged bsh, 1 fig

Rolls: 2@4; Total Hits: 12@4: (4, 6)

[wheatbeer]

sz91 cwlo 3 sub, 1 dest, 2 fig, 1 carrier, and damage to bsh

[wheatbeer]

I hope that is an acceptable reroll.

round 1
Germany rolled most likely outcome, Allies rolled 1 under most likely outcome.

round 2
Both sides rolled 1 hit over their most likely outcome.

round 3
Both sides rolled most likely outcome.

I can’t give you the true odds for the battle outcome as a whole since aa calc calculates defending subs at 2, defending carriers at 3, attacking carriers at 1, and only gives carriers 1 hit point.

[wheatbeer]

NOV

A 12 inf, 10 art, 2 tank

Rolls: 2@1 20@2 2@3; Total Hits: 52@1: (4, 3)20@2: (4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 2, 5, 6, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 2, 3, 6, 5, 4, 2)2@3: (6, 3)

D 1 inf

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)

[wheatbeer]

nov twol

NUKR

A 2 inf, 1 fig, 1 tact, 1 strat

Rolls: 2@1 1@3 2@4; Total Hits: 22@1: (1, 5)1@3: (5)2@4: (6, 1)

D 2 inf

Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 02@2: (5, 5)

[wheatbeer]

nukr twol

BEL

A 2 inf, 2 tact, 1 strat

Rolls: 2@1 2@3 1@4; Total Hits: 32@1: (6, 4)2@3: (1, 1)1@4: (1)

D 2 inf

Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (4, 2)

[wheatbeer]

bel twlo 1 inf

BES

A 5 inf, 4 art

Rolls: 1@1 8@2; Total Hits: 11@1: (5)8@2: (4, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 6)

D 1 inf

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)

[wheatbeer]

bes twol

NCM:
1 strat bel >> wgr
1 strat nukr >> wgr
2 tact bel >> epl
1 fig, 1 tact nukr >> epl
1 fig, 1 tact SZ91 >> SZ92
2 fig rom >> egy
1 dest SZ93 >> SZ92
1 trans SZ98 >> SZ95
1 aa gun wgr >> nita
6 inf fin >> kar
2 inf, 2 art nor >> fin
1 aa gun epl >> bes
1 aa gun bal >> nov
2 mech, 5 tank, 1 aa gun bal >> epl

Mobilize:
6 inf, 4 art rom
1 sub, 1 dest SZ112
1 fig wgr

Collect 49 + 10 = 59 IPC

(reminder: skipped ANZAC/France)

kilroy vs wheat A3 5aGermany.AAM

[kilroynothere]

Sure. I needed just one more hit early to make it a good fight. Figured roughly 50/50… sure liked the first round rolls though!  :-D

Seriously starting to feel like there is nothing that can be done with the Allied cause. Am I just too pessimistic?  Reading in the forums it seems that everyone is starting to think it is now skewed toward the Axis. I tend to agree. Just nothing you can really do to stop the tide.

Regardless, will carry on to see as I am curious if I am still just playing too aggressively or if it really is difficult for the Allies.

As i see it, no way to stop Italy, no way to stop Japan, and no way to stop Germany… seems pretty obvious.

Anyway, I’ll get the ANZAC and Russian moves in tonight I think.

[wheatbeer]

Germany was willing to sacrifice everything to trash the Allied fleet.  We had equal hitpoints, but Germany had more hitting power and didn’t have to sacrifice any of it until after 3 defending hits since it’s carrier was there just to absorb.  Odds were in Germany’s favor around 55% maybe.  Still very close.  I think low luck rules would have made it even closer to 50/50.

I think the current opinion towards the Axis is based on the Sea Lion / India crush combo (with the most complaint about Sea Lion).  It can become a very difficult struggle for Germany if it goes Barbarossa instead (see my current A3 match against Axisplaya, which might only be saved, ironically, by a late-game Sea Lion).

I’d agree that the Allies aren’t in great shape right now.  The US probably can’t afford to spend and lose resources in the Atlantic this early when London isn’t under threat.

[wheatbeer]

Also, after this game, if you want to play another match, we should a full game low luck.

[wheatbeer]

*should try

[kilroynothere]

Agreed. I blew this move too… just not so good with the US. I pretty much figure the game is over as I see it. The Axis is in good shape, with resources in the right places, and making more than the Allies.  That typically spells doom, for the long or short term.

Want to play out a couple more turns, but pretty much blew the early move to take GIB i think. Could/should have blocked your navy coming in (would have had to put destroyer+cruiser to do so against your bomber most likely, but probably should have. That would have allowed me to pull back and build or something else… or should have waited, but felt that just simply couldn’t.  Think I could have waited?

And yes, never played low-luck, but willing to do so. Sounds like it takes out all the craziness and forces you to be even more strategic and patient. You’ll have to teach me how to run the dice on it though.

So, let’s play out two more rounds here just to see what happens and then we can start the other game. Happy to play the Allies again as I am really frustrated I am playing so poorly on that side and desperately want to get better!

[wheatbeer]

I think you could have waited.  UK could keep Italy in check on land … not defeat it, but keep it from growing any further.

Low luck works like so:

using EGY as an example:

A 4 inf, 1 mech, 2 art, 1 fig, 1 tact, 1 strat, 2 cru, 1 bsh
3x1 4x2 3x3 3x4 = 32 hitting power
divided by 6 = 5 auto hits remainder 2

Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)

D 5 inf, 1 mech, 1 art, 1 tank
7x2 1x3 = 17 hitting power
divided by 6 = 2 auto hits remainder 5

Rolls: 1@5; Total Hits: 01@5: (6)

[wheatbeer]

EGY r2

A 2 inf, 1 mech, 2 art, 1 fig, 1 tact, 1 strat
1x1 4x2 1x3 2x4 = 20 hitting power
divided by 6 = 3r2

(no need to roll since the defender only has 2 units left)

D 1 art, 1 tank
1x2 1x3 = 5 hitting power
divided by 6 = 0r5

Rolls: 1@5; Total Hits: 11@5: (5)

[kilroynothere]

Yeah, I agree on the waiting… just too aggressive and not being patient. I’ll learn… just old and slow!  :-D

Easy way of doing the dice. Like it. Have you played other games that way?  Seems like it would be a nice way of taking out all the mayhem.

[kilroynothere]

Now that I am thinking on it, do you want to continue the game as it’s pretty clear the Axis will win and start a new one?  Up to you.

[wheatbeer]

The only problem with this style, it that it can be slightly more tedious and that it allows both attackers and defenders to calculate exactly what they need to accomplish an objective.

Naval battles presumably require subs to be calculated separately when their inability to hit air units or their sneak attacks come into play.