Does an A+3 Sealion = Axis victory?

[Ruanek]

It’d be nice if people stopped attacking each other in this thread.  It’s probably against forum rules or something.  At the very least, it’s bad manners.

[Jennifer]

@Young:

Does anyone else other than me, feel like they need a university degree to post on this thread?

Yes, sometimes you feel like you need a degree in history.

[Omega1759]

Okay for the 9 infantry…

At the end of UK1, should assume that UK collects:

28 + 5 - 3 (Canada convoy) +  2 (Persia) + 1 Ethiopia = 33

To answer the question on subs:

Germany starts with 5 subs.

2 should be in 106 (expected value) and our out of reach of 109.

1 sub participates to the 112 battle and should most likely survive

2 subs participate in the 110 battle, one of them should survive, unless both the battleship and cruiser hit. 33% of time both subs are gone.

1 sub is built in 112.

At UK 2, all destroyers will be gone, so convoy interdiction / income situation will look like:

So 3 subs directed at 109 in G2 against the battleship with planes, 1 sub dies and 6 of convoy damage is made + the 3 off Canada. Total damage of 9.

With these UK1 moves, the Italians should capture and hold one of the UK territories (e.g., egypt) and prevent the NO from being achieved.

The new UK income at end of turn 2 is : 28 - 9 + 2 -2 + 1 = 20.

So then, UK would buy 10 infantry on UK2 (save 3) and 7 infantry on UK3.

Total infantry = 3 + 9 + 10 + 7 = 29 at G4, or 22 at G3. That’s a lot of infantry!

Fighters = 4 (initial on islands), + Tac + Malta fighter + Gibraltar Fighter (total of 7 planes, all there on UK3).

So there is no way I would build many transports in these conditions. I would focus on sinking the remaining UK fleet, taking Gibraltar, interdicting convoys, growing with Italy to diminish UK’s economic relevance as quickly as possible.

In 112 at end of G2 I should have 1 BB, 1 CA, 1 CV, 2 Fighters, 1 TRN.

At G3 would make sure to interdict maximum, 13 total of damage against UK…

While the UK will be well defended, the US will be forced to spend in Atlantic with significant amounts to deal with all those subs.

@jim010:

So you conceed that if the axis are dedicated, London will fall.

I conceed nothing, as you have only demonstrated desparate tactics.  I will ignore future posts.

You did not say what UK would build?

9 inf, save $1

Would send 2 or 3 subs and planes sink the BB in 109, preferrably 3.

How many subs will you have?  Maybe there should be a DD with the BB in sz109 and use the cruiser to block?  Or we could buy the DD?

Would a destroyer and planes sink 104, that blocks the fleet on its way back to London.

That was my idea.

I would keep the rest of my fleet in 112 and add 3 subs to 110. I would not build many transports on G2, would probably add one plane and ground troops with my 70 IPCs.

Then the question is how many would you build?

[JimmyHat]

I think I see what you’re saying Jim, but if we do another study on the moves, we need to decide before hand what are Germany’s objectives.  I would suggest they be: G1 reduce casualties in order to husband forces for upcoming attacks. G2 fleet build and stage on the coast.  G3 invasion of Scotland.  G4 invasion of London.  Remaining troops are parceled out to prevent Russian blitzing but are not concerned with holding balkans/poland.

The amount we can devote to the Russian front is really going to decide our invasion strategy.  Should it be to stop the Russians from invading past the border areas or are we willing to give up everything shy of Berlin and NItaly?

[Jennifer]

Omega,

I think England might have a good shot at not taking Convoy damage in Canada.  The SZ 109 destroyer can probably sink the remaining Submarine in SZ 106.

---

Jimmy,

I don’t see how Germany can both stop Russia from invading heavily and take England.  Perhaps leaving a picket infantry in each border territory, but that doesn’t stop Russia nor does it allow Germany to repell Russia.  It’s why I gave the disclaimer that I didn’t care about the overall strategic situation when plotting my destruction of England.

[jim010]

@JimmyHat:

I think I see what you’re saying Jim, but if we do another study on the moves, we need to decide before hand what are Germany’s objectives.  I would suggest they be: G1 reduce casualties in order to husband forces for upcoming attacks. G2 fleet build and stage on the coast.  G3 invasion of Scotland.  G4 invasion of London.  Remaining troops are parceled out to prevent Russian blitzing but are not concerned with holding balkans/poland.

Agreed

The amount we can devote to the Russian front is really going to decide our invasion strategy.  Should it be to stop the Russians from invading past the border areas or are we willing to give up everything shy of Berlin and NItaly?
There really isn’t any way for preventing Russia from taking a couple of forward zones, I would say, but we will see.

[jim010]

Omega,  are you not pursuing Sealion then?  If you don’t buy the TTs on G2, I don’t see Sealion as possible.

[Jennifer]

If you are going to do a realism study, then figure on stacking counter attack units in Yugoslavia, Germany.  That allows you to retake Romania, Poland and Hungary.

Now keep in mind, those three territories are worth 18 IPC to Russia and only 9 to Germany.  You might not want to allow them to take them and instead focus on Russia instead of England which I have, and probably will for the foreseeable future, figure Sea Lion to be unproductive.  (Unless they really under protect it or something.)

[Omega1759]

That’s what I would do, but his move was to bring the destroyer in 104 to block the German fleet and prevent boxing the med fleet in the Med.

@Cmdr:

Omega,

I think England might have a good shot at not taking Convoy damage in Canada.  The SZ 109 destroyer can probably sink the remaining Submarine in SZ 106.

---

Jimmy,

I don’t see how Germany can both stop Russia from invading heavily and take England.  Perhaps leaving a picket infantry in each border territory, but that doesn’t stop Russia nor does it allow Germany to repell Russia.  It’s why I gave the disclaimer that I didn’t care about the overall strategic situation when plotting my destruction of England.

[Omega1759]

@jim010:

Omega,  are you not pursuing Sealion then?  If you don’t buy the TTs on G2, I don’t see Sealion as possible.

Correct, I would not go with a Sealion with the moves you outlined. Question becomes how the UK would be able to perform. I am convinced that my strategy is not enabling Sea Lion in all circumstances, but does force the UK to invest somewhat to prevent it. That’s the idea.

[jim010]

Correct, I would not go with a Sealion with the moves you outlined. Question becomes how the UK would be able to perform. I am convinced that my strategy is not enabling Sea Lion in all circumstances, but does force the UK to invest somewhat to prevent it. That’s the idea.

I had suggested some ideas to tighten up UK1, but if you are not doing Sealion, then I see no further point in exploring UK2.

[Jennifer]

@Omega1759:

That’s what I would do, but his move was to bring the destroyer in 104 to block the German fleet and prevent boxing the med fleet in the Med.

Strategic Bomber from N. Italy to SZ 104.

85.49% chance of clearing the destroyer. (Slightly better than 50% chance to survive.)