Best UK defense for Sealion 3 or 4 collaboration

  • Customizer

    Can you post a map to look at for this UK 1?


  • I just typed out the rest, than this gay computer shut down. Arrgh.

    B1.AAM


  • @cts17:

    I just typed out the rest, than this gay computer shut down. Arrgh.

    Oh, and it’s a purchase of 6 infantry, not just 4, obviously.

  • Customizer

    I ran the odds of Germany doing Sealion on turn 2 in this case, and its 98% success with 9 units left over on average.

    Assuming the TT in sz106 survives (and it will 2/3 games with this opening, add 1 inf, 1 tank, but odds only drop to 91%

    Need  more inf on London.


  • Okay, look at the map to see what I did. I had it all typed out, but the computer crashed…

    NOTE: Germany COULD pull off a G2 Sealion in this scenario. She will loose a good portion of her planes, though, and Great Britain is in position to retake it. In addition, it adds the United States into the war right then and there. A turn 2 sealion is basically out of the question.

    This is also assuming the worst case scenario: SZ106 lost.

    This battle is a huge disappointment to me. It’s just a roll of die at the beginning of the game to determine what level of difficulty Great Britain will be facing, seperated into 3 different sections:

    Scenario #1(EASY MODE): Destroyer kills Sub. Destroyer can be used as a blocker wherever needed, and is a huge asset. The Canadian troops get through to London and Great Britain also collects her 5 IPC bonus.

    Scenario #2(MEDIUM MODE): Sub kills Destroyer kills Sub. Same as EASY MODE, but no destroyer.

    Scenario #3(HARD MODE): Sub kills Destroyer. Transport is killed, no troops go to London, Great Britain looses her 5 IPC bonus, and also looses 2 IPC to convoy damage.

    That’s an 15 IPC difference that Great Britain has for a Sealion defence, not including the loss of units. 8 IPC for the Canadian troops that will now have to be bought for defense, rather than saved up for other purposes. 2 IPC for convoy damage. 5 IPC for IPC bonus. Then you factor in the cost of units. Destroyer + Transport = -15 IPC. Destroyer - Submarine = -1 IPC. Nothing - Submarine = +6 IPC

    That’s a total of 30 IPC difference between EASY MODE and HARD MODE. There’s a 33% chance for all three modes. Equal odds. This battle is retarded.

    Now that I’m done ranting about the single thing in this game that royally pisses me off… I mean, put the transport into a different seazone, or move the convoy to a different spot. Put an airbase down with a fighter… I don’t know, but this is broken. Okay… whew. Done. On to talk about strategy again.


  • @jim010:

    I ran the odds of Germany doing Sealion on turn 2 in this case, and its 98% success with 9 units left over on average.

    Assuming the TT in sz106 survives (and it will 2/3 games with this opening, add 1 inf, 1 tank, but odds only drop to 91%

    Need  more inf on London.

    Where are your odds coming from?

  • Customizer

    Nevermind, I typed in the wrong number of UK planes.

    I still see 87% success with 7 units surviving, though.  I see that UK could take it back with the TT from the Med., but then G3ermany would retake London a 2nd time.  Or are you hitting the German fleet in sz110?


  • I’ll take my 74% battle against London anytime, if I can hit the Brit fleet w/more air units. Also, I always build 4 Inf, 4 Art w/the UK on Turn 1, so I have max counter-attack capability, if the Germans land in Scotland, then don’t do SeaLion(i.e. don’t build more transports on Turn 2) but rather go after Russia. That way I have offensive capabilities(i.e. artillery) to take back Scotland but can still use my air in other places if need be or move them off the UK to other places like the Med and/or Africa.

  • Customizer

    OK. let’s go with your map.



  • There you go, jim010. I don’t care about success odds as that is impossible to guess. The only “odds” you can guess are how many units are killed after the first round of combat. You need to round from there. Your 7 units remaining makes sense to me, though.

    That means you’ve lose 4 planes, and have only 1 unit defending Great Britain, which can be retaken immediately thereafter. Plus, the United States is in the war, and if she’s cooperating, can reinforce nearly immediately. A turn 2 sealion isn’t feasible. Possible, but not feasible.

    On to turn 2. I don’t care what Germany builds. Most will build more transports and units. Few will be building more sea units.

    Great Britain:

    Buy
    1 CV (16)
    2 DD (8)
    save (0)

    CM:
    none

    NCM:
    SZ92 fleet to SZ110
    1 CA SZ91 to SZ119
    … I’d loose that battle…

    Hmmm… that SZ106 battle really does change things. If the sub wins, I can’t do this build… my odds aren’t good enough. If it looses, then I can build another carrier with more planes on it.

  • Customizer

    That means you’ve lose 4 planes, and have only 1 unit defending Great Britain, which can be retaken immediately thereafter. Plus, the United States is in the war, and if she’s cooperating, can reinforce nearly immediately. A turn 2 sealion isn’t feasible. Possible, but not feasible.

    Maybe so, but I don’t like the Idea of losing UK’s money twice.  The only thing US could reinforce with, though, would be bmbs.  And they go first, so the couldn’t land on London anyway.


  • Turn 2 SeaLion is very difficult but Turn 3 SeaLion is very possible, especially considering what the UK does. Also, the US being in the war does not guarantee the UK is taken back. Most players do a KJF strategy, which I think is a mistake. I believe a KGF strategy is best. If the US marshalls it’s forces correctly(a lot of players don’t know how to play the US to it’s max potential from what I’ve seen), then the US can easily take back the UK, unless Germany puts all it’s resources into defending it, which means Russia steam rolls Germany, even w/Italian help.


  • Cts, you actually can run odds on later rounds, it just requires a bit of strange unit numbers.

    For example:
    If I’m attacking with 2 Inf, 2 Art, I get 8 dots to attack.

    Say I’ll statistically recieve 1.5 hits from defense.

    Then I say I have 0.5 Inf, 2 Art.
    That’s where it gets weird, but it still is correct, statistics-wise.
    Then I’d get 5 dots to attack.
    (2 Art * 2 + 0.5 Inf * 2 = 5)
    It’s weird, but it is still right, and requires no rounding.

  • Customizer

    Here’s the Italian proposal.

    Tweaks?

    Maybe hit eh DD in sz110?

  • Customizer

    I guess you need a map.

    It1.AAM

  • Customizer

    @Commando:

    Turn 2 SeaLion is very difficult but Turn 3 SeaLion is very possible, especially considering what the UK does. Also, the US being in the war does not guarantee the UK is taken back. Most players do a KJF strategy, which I think is a mistake. I believe a KGF strategy is best. If the US marshalls it’s forces correctly(a lot of players don’t know how to play the US to it’s max potential from what I’ve seen), then the US can easily take back the UK, unless Germany puts all it’s resources into defending it, which means Russia steam rolls Germany, even w/Italian help.

    Here’s a game of Europe I played with a successful Sealion.  UK and Gibraltar were not taken back in the game.

    Could be of interest, as there is no Japan to distract the US.

    http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=23589.0


  • Sorry, slept in.

    We /do not/ want England to fall twice.  Germ gets paid, if Germ can hold UK with 1 unit and a great chance to capture again the next round, it would not be in Englands interest to liberate their own capital…unless they can hold it.

    I don’t like hitting both BB’s, but do see the value in it.  What are the average losses you expect from these battles?  Basically is the luftwaffe still unhurt?  I would suggest possibly sending 1 Germ sub against the CA in sz91 as Germs only low odds battle.

    I also find the Normandy battle to be a bit weak, its at 79%, but shows Germ capturing usually with 1 art 1 arm.  23 attacking pips against 22 defending, its a bit close.

    I think Italy’s best moves are to build a ftr in this instance and move aircraft into France perhaps.


  • Good point Jimmy.  I think that we should discuss G1’s targets at least to see why we’re doing what we are doing.

    To be more specific - hitting SZ 110 or not. 
    There’s enough merit to both sides that we could discuss it a bit more.

    Pro’s:

    UK’s navy is pretty much reduced to the Med fleet along with whatever DDs survive G1 and the 91 CA.
    No threat (realistically) to the German fleet.
    Hitting whatever tries to block the Sealion fleet is significantly easier, requires less air, which can then just go straight for London.

    Con’s:

    Resources are diverted from other sea/land battles.
    Paris and Normandy battles are less assured.
    DD in 106 can survive much more often.
    No subs can be afforded to the 91 CA (admittedly this is a 50% battle anyway)
    Larger risk to important Armor and - to a lesser degree - artillery. 
    Fighter in Normandy might survive.

    Thoughts?

    Jen brought up a good point as well; do we want to prioritize SZ 110 over SZ 111?
    Perhaps we could put 2 SS to 106, 2 SS to 110, and send the remainder to 112, to be used against what UK navy remains on G2.
    The only real “escape” route for the 111 fleet is the Iceland SZ, and from there, it cannot reach 110 on UK2. 
    Hitting 110 instead of 111 would require a bit more air power, but not nearly as much as if we were hitting both navies, that way we could still take Paris and Normandy with very acceptable odds.

  • Customizer

    I have a really hard time letting the sz110 fleet go.  That CA and BB gives UK options that don’t normally have.  The best German opening leaves UK with few options.

    In the G1 I posted, 2 sb, 3 fht, 2 tac vs 1 CA, 1 BB, 3 fht (scrambled)

    70% with 2 planes surviving on average.  This is pretty variable, though, but UK losing 3 planes to 3 German planes only helps Sealion, though.

    Hit Normandy with 3 inf, 3 tanks is 84% surviving with 3 units.

    Hit Paris with 4 inf, 4 mec, 3 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht, 1 tac  is 87% surviving with 5 units.

    I can’t get any better odds for any battle without lowering the odds somewhere important.

    This is off my G1 posted at the beginning.

    G1.AAM

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