Seazone 110: 2 fighters from W Germany, 1 tac from W Germany, 1 tac and 2 strats from Germany and 2 subs
I think I would scramble. The odds of Germany winning that work out to 79.2% (dskelly), but more importantly the average losses to Germany come out at 49 IPCs. That would be 2 subs plus 3 or 4 of the planes on average. Plus don’t forget about the 1 in 5 times that all 6 planes are lost - that’s half the Luftwaffe and all the Bombers. Like YG said, bad dice on the first turn and your game would be pretty well screwed. I like the way you would attack z111 though.
For z110 suppose you do what you said above but also roll out the battleship (perhaps with a new airbase to protect it). With that the odds come out to 98.1% with the scramble, and average losses are 32 IPCs (2 subs, 1 fighter). With no scramble (pretty likely) the odds are 100% and the average loss is 5IPCs (1 sub). You don’t get to convoy raid or SBR but you really smoke the Royal Navy. Now if Italy can just take Gibraltar the battleship can go down to z92 on round 2.