Does Sealion break the Game(Europe Only)

[jim010]

Well play out a game and find out.

[Latro]

I’ll probably play-test it a few times for sure!  :-D

… but the point of a forum is having a discussion and learning from other people’s experiences as well, hence the questions.

:wink:

[Redjac]

I am like Jim010. I play the game to win. But if there is always a “best move” then playing this game is like playing chess using only one opening or one defense. After a while the game will be no fun. Even if the game is not 'broken" because the allies may still win is beside the point.

I think I understand the strategic problem posed by Sealion. Germany can build a CV and a couple of TR to threaten the invasion of UK on G1. Even if they are all sunk on UK1 (unlikely as they can be safe in baltic) then Germany has around 70 ipc’s to purchase a new navy one space away from UK on G2. UK has one turn (on Uk 2) to sink it because it cannot be blocked. (The new navy is built in the western sea zone next to west germany.) On G3 the Germans invade UK. If the English build land units on UK1 or UK2 the germans should win according to Jim010 (and I believe him - the numbers seem right) because the Germans have more units - inf, art, tanks, planes and shore bombardment.

Hopefully there is some mix of naval and air units that can be bought on UK1 to attack the german fleet on UK2 and sink it. The only idea I have is 1 tactical bomber and 3 subs. These units cannot be attacked by the standard german build of 1 CV and 2 TR because they have no DD in German Navy. But the problem is complicated by the fact that the Germans don’t have to build a large invasion force if they see a UK1 navy/air build. They just build a bigger navy with the 70 ipc’s on G2 to invade with on G3. They simply use less TR’s and more surface warships in the build on G2.

[Imperious Leader]

German Uboats, planes and BB attack UK navy

G1 NCM moves a CA to block all UK ships in SZ 104. That means the UK Gibraltar fleet cant attack the BB and CV or be used as fodder.

Germany takes off all of UK fleet and builds and places a CV and 2 AP off Denmark.

UK can only hit with planes, no ships and they will lose against 2 hit CV, BB and 2 fighters.

[jim010]

Don’t really need to block.

UK
3 fht, 1 tac, 1 DD, 1 CV

vs

Germany
1 sb, 1 CR, 1 CV, 1 dmg BB, 2 fht

UK loses that battle 70%.

[Latro]

@Redjac:

I think I understand the strategic problem posed by Sealion. Germany can build a CV and a couple of TR to threaten the invasion of UK on G1. Even if they are all sunk on UK1 (unlikely as they can be safe in baltic) then Germany has around 70 ipc’s to purchase a new navy one space away from UK on G2. UK has one turn (on Uk 2) to sink it because it cannot be blocked. (They new navy is built in the western sea zone next to west germany.) On G3 the Germans invade UK. If the English build land units on UK1 or UK2 the germans should win according to Jim010 (and I believe him - the numbers seem right) because the Germans have more units - inf, art, tanks, planes and shore bombardment.

This assumes that a succesful operation Sealion will result in a Axis win. I’m not so sure about that in this latest A&A version. It’s a simple fact that without outside influence, operation will always succeed simply because the income of Germany will become bigger than that of the UK … bigger income = bigger army = teh big win!!!

Starting turn 4 however, roughly 90 IPC’s of Allied agression come knocking at Germany’s door. Which basicly means the Axis have 3 turns to do their stuff and get ready. So will the cost of Sealion (time, cost, unit position) be worth it? My first guess would be no …

The UK can still effectively cripple Italy during the first three turns and Germany can’t handle the United States and the Soviet Union on its own.

… but I’m not sure, better get some testing going!

8-)

[bugoo]

Dont have alot of time and will elaborate later, but SZ 113 is NOT safe for german transports at any time.

All UK needs to do is purchase a carrier, then SZ 110 becomes a legal landing location for 2 UK planes, with the airbase in UK that means transports in 113 go boom.

Now if UK can block SZ 112 in some fasion, or threaten it in a meaningful way, I do not know.

[Arminius Germanicus]

All UK needs to do is purchase a carrier, then SZ 110 becomes a legal landing location for 2 UK planes, with the airbase in UK that means transports in 113 go boom.

Sounds so easy but it isnt,
if you place a CV sz110 in GB1 or GB2 it will be destroyed by combined german subs and airforce i think,

but SZ 113 is NOT safe for german transports at any time.

so at least transports in the baltic are minimum save until turn 3 or 4.
If he cant attack the CV in sz110, german player moves his transports to his fleet so its covered.

If UK gather rest of the exsisting fleet Sz110 without attacking german fleet in GB1
and build a second CV and a Cruiser you will lose everyting against german combined fleet and airforce. Or maybe 1 - 3 Transports is enough for germany to take UK in G2.
After that the transports dont need cover anymore.

[JamesAleman]

@Latro:

The biggest threat coming from the US (IMHO of course) is not massing for one very strong amphibious assault, but the economic drain coming from a new landing each turn (and gradually growing in strength as well).

You may be right, but my problem with the little landings, is that you will need a large defensive fleet to get in close. All Germany does is build enough air units, and after you land they choose to sink your fleet. More defensive pieces = less land units and threat.

I prefer the “anchor” strategy for it’s “implied threat”. By threatening all areas, they choose to either defend all or pick a smaller area to protect. You then pick the weakest area to hit. As your fleet is small, you likely send the transports only on a one way trip. Once the landing is secure, the factory follows and you won’t need transports.

Obviously, you have to be sure that your landing will survive two turns, hence the wait for a large force, I prefer 2 times the size of the nearest German force in units. (including production response)

I knew when I opened the box that pacific was broken, simply by counting the 28 air units they have, I would not argue that that game is balanced. Its still possible to win even in that broken game at least once per opponent, then they see and easily prevent the U.S. strategy in the future. (That strategy involves pulling the air units out of India turn 3 and stacking 35 allied units in Korea turn 5. Japan learns to build more navy and grab India a couple of rounds later.)

I agree it would suck if UK first becomes the only move, if that happens I agree, fly out of UK and build in Africa 1 Transport. With 2 transports in theater, you will drag out Egypt until until after round 4.

[bugoo]

No, it really is that easy.  Let me show you an example

UK turn 2 purchase: 1 AC
UK turn 2 Combat Move: 2 Fig England to SZ 113, as SZ 110 is a legal landing site as I’m buying a carrier this turn and can land on it.

German transports sunk.

[Imperious Leader]

People: i already posted the solution. This stops any credible attack against the main German fleet. Transports protected.

Attack SZ 106 with 1 sub ( UK has 1 DD) 2 vs. 2. 40.6% to 39.5%

Attack SZ 109 1 fighter vs. 1 DD 3 vs. 2. 48.9% to 26% ( both die at 25.1%)

Attack SZ 110 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 fighter, 1 bomber vs. 1 BB, 1 DD ( should win)
99.5%

Attack SZ 111 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter, vs. 1 BB, 1 CA ( should win)
85.7%

Attack SZ 112 1 BB, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter vs 2 CA ( should win hit on BB)
89%

Notes:
The cruiser makes my BB and CV with 2 fighters protected against 3 of his fighters attacking on UK1

His navy is blocked entirely against SZ 112. I have 2 subs each on each side to block a DD from coming in.

I could fix SZ 109 attack and replace with bomber, and put the fighter with the BB attack. This cuts out the DD in SZ 109 from coming to the other side with 3 fighters against my main fleet.

The first attack IS a coin flip, but the others are not. I expect to lose 2-3 subs and a BB hit. If i roll down i expect to lose a fighter or bomber in SZ 109

One CA blocks at SZ 104 the subs block either DD.

If i lose both subs in one battle, i think i can still win against 3 fighters and DD against a 2 hit CV BB and 2 fighters. But its set up so that i should just lose one SS in each combat.

This both protects my main fleet that is coming out, causes UK to avoid attacking Italian fleet, Gives Germany a chance for Sealion, kills most of UK’s fleet, and kills the balance of UK’s fleet on the next turn if they choose to attack my CA on UK1.

[calvinhobbesliker]

@Imperious:

I have 2 subs each on each side to block a DD from coming in.

Again, subs don’t block DD’s. DD’s block subs

[Imperious Leader]

Only one DD could do that. If you forget Labrador SS attack and send it with the plane against that lone DD on western UK, that DD is gone too.

That does give UK 2 more land units ( tank and Inf)

Id rather use the bomber on the DD and take the coin flip against Labrador sea zone

[Imperious Leader]

People: i already posted the solution. This stops any credible attack against the main German fleet. Transports protected.

ok so this then:

Attack SZ 106 with 1 sub ( UK has 1 DD) 2 vs. 2. 40.6% to 39.5%

Attack SZ 109 1 bomber vs. 1 DD 4 vs. 2. 48.9% to 26% ( both die at 25.1%)

Attack SZ 110 2 subs, 1 tactical, 2 fighters vs. 1 BB, 1 DD ( should win)
99.5%

Attack SZ 111 2 subs, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter, vs. 1 BB, 1 CA ( should win)
85.7%

Attack SZ 112 1 BB, 1 tactical, 1 Fighter vs 2 CA ( should win hit on BB)
89%

Notes:
The cruiser makes my BB and the 2 hit CV with 2 fighters protected against all four of his planes attacking on UK1

All ships in reach are effectively blocked. Four planes wont kill that fleet.

[JamesAleman]

Back on topic, the author of this forum asks our opinion about whether sea lion breaks the game.

How sea lion is done doesn’t really matter. The point is, for the game to be broken by sea lion, the axis would have to win every game in which they capture UK. In my opinion its not a guaranteed win. If you are board, here are some ideas to try against a sea lion.

Option 1: Lets say for the sake of argument, that there is no way to defend UK, what stops someone from building 3 transports, and 2 artillery with UK1, place 2 transports and an artillery in S. Africa, use the Egypt transport to activate Persia for free men, place the other transport and artillery in Canada, use the Gibraltar DD to clear the sea zone there if needed, if it is ignored, you will have 5 transports on the board, fly your air units to Gibraltar or Algeria’s 1 infantry if you fear being attacked. On turn 2, 3 transports dump 5 land units in Egypt, and the Gibraltar planes land there. On turn 3, you can hit Rome with 5 transports and 2 air units….seems like you can keep the fight going without a capital. If you don’t like this, just stack the units in Egypt to keep it out of axis hands. You can then reinforce Rome or N. Italy with your 10 UK units and 4-5 air units after America takes it on round 8 with 38 land units. Your fleet (1 carrier, 1 south American Cruiser, 1 south african DD) denies one Italian objective and your land force denies the other in Egypt. Uk is still keeping 10 axis IPCs out of there hands.

Option 2: Now if you want to counter sea lion, a desperate plan would be to build 4 subs and an artillery turn 1, move all units to Scottland (2-4 land units + 3-4 air units) where they can only hit you with 3 air units and 6 land units, attack their fleet after they take UK with 4 subs, a carrier and 1-2 surviving planes, use your land units and 1-2 planes to liberate UK if they chose to land units in London. If you clear the zone France can liberate London unless Italy gets a plane there. This permits you to still attack Italy’s navy, kill the plane first so your carrier can go elsewhere to position for a counter attack on the German navy. They will have no DD’s to deal with the subs. If IL  sends 1 sub vs the Canadian DD, you should still have the transport to land 1 armor and 1 infantry on Scottland. Are these good odds? Probably not.

Option 3: An alternative is to land 2 air units in Iceland (not likely to be hit), send carrier to sz106, build 1 transport 1 artillery and 3 subs, Move 1 land unit to Scottland and 2 planes, build 1 artillery + transport  in Canada and 3 subs in London. Counter attack fleet after UK falls, and land 2 infantry and 1 artillery and 1 tank on London. He will likely split transports to take Scottland (bait) and London, therefore 4 units or less will be on London. You can send 2 air units and 3 subs on the fleet, or 4 land units and 2 air units on London. If Scottland is ignored, you will have 5 land units and 4 air units. I would only Liberate London if he was not able to retake. It would better serve Russia to destroy the transports instead.

Still not to good, but I like the first plan that holds Egypt since then the axis will still need Moscow to win.

[jim010]

I repeat:

Don’t need to block.

UK
3 fht, 1 tac, 1 DD, 1 CV

vs

Germany
1 sb, 1 CR, 1 CV, 1 dmg BB, 2 fht

UK loses that battle 70%

My TTs won’t be built in sz113, they will be built in sz112 with my fleet.  And they won’t be there until end of G2.

Unless you got pretty lucky and wiped out my fleet in sz112 (and you need pretty good luck, as you need to survive with a unit, which is 15%), then sealion just jumped in the odds for the Germans to 99%.

Building a CV and landing your planes on it in sz110.  Interesting.  Would work only if I survived with less than the average number of planes in G1.  And if that happened, I’m not doing Sealion anyway.  If I do have my average number of planes, then I have:

surviving sb (if any) 1 CR, 1 dmg BB, 1 CV, 2 fht, 2 tac, 1 bmb vs 1 DD, 2 CV, 3 fht, 1 tac

Since you need to win with a unit, you’ll lose this 80%, and I now need fewer TTs and units to bother with London now.  I could build more sb, fht or whatever.

My TTs can be in whatever sea zone I feel like, as there will be no unit to block.

Be back in a couple days

[Latro]

(A bit of a double post, but since there’s two threads about this topic I thought I’d post it in both threads)

UK counter, version 1

UK1 builds: 2x Tactical Bomber
UK1 attacks: none concerning operation Sealion
UK1 moves: tactical bomber from carrier to the UK, Gibralter fleet remains stationary
UK1 placements: 2x tactical bomber in the UK

UK2 attacks: Gibraltar fleet + UK air-force attack SZ112

The battle!

UK: carrier + destroyer + 3x fighter + 3x tactical bomber

Versus

Germany: submarine + carrier + cruiser + tactical bomber + fighter + battleship

Round 1: UK scores 23 pips = 4 hits v. Germany scores 17 pips = 3 hits
Losses: UK carrier + destroyer v. German submarine + cruiser + 2 damaged capital ships

Round 2: UK scores 21 pips = 3 hits v. Germany scores 13 pips = 2 hits
Losses: UK fighter + tactical bomber v. German carrier + fighter + tactical bomber

Round 3: UK scores 14 pips = 2 hits v. Germany scores 4 pips = 1 hit
Losses: UK tactical bomber v. German battleship … all transports are sunk as well

Alternatively Germany can pull back the fleet to SZ113, but that allows the UK to place an easy block to delay Sealion for at least one extra turn … opening the way for more possible UK and/or US intervention and unchecked Soviet aggression in the East.

Germany can also move the cruiser to block in SZ 104 to keep the Gibraltar fleet out of it. The UK air-force can still attack the German fleet and will still win, but with more losses as well.

:evil:

[pusfilledwart]

the game is not broken with Sealion. Larry himself said that he built it into the game–you guys are chasing a ghost. There is absolutely zero assurance that taking over the UK gives the Axis an auto-win. Go ahead and build eleven transports for two turns and watch Stalin smile. Puny Italy has no chance agains the US in Africa. There is still enough material in Africa to check the dagos before the US butts in. Russia will become the historical colossus. This is all just “mental masturbation”–who Can-Try-To-Find-A-Flaw and run apeshit with it.

[WILD BILL]

Latro, my first thought was to have UK buy air units UK1 too (have done it). You can also have UK build a sub w/two tacs UK1 (28 ipc’s). Germany can’t kill the sub, and it will increase your odds in the sz 112 sea battle if Germany stays. I think Germany may just drop in another carrier G2 though, so could still stay in SZ112, but would buy fewer tpt’s. Then you have to decided to roll the dice in the sea battle, or do inf buy UK2 and let him storm the beaches G3 w/fewer ground units.

Good post none the less  :-D

[Imperious Leader]

If the AA gun does not kill a plane on a G2 sealion and if you also block with cruiser in SZ 104 and you will all the battles, the UK player can only get 11 Infantry and 4 planes defense. ( builds 9 men, has 2 at start, plus 3 fighters 1 tactical)

The odds of this battle if the above all occur to win for Germany is over 50%.

If AA gun hits, it goes down to about 42%