L23 BM4 Gamerman (Allies+10) vs Roboto (Axis)

[gamerman01]

F7.tsvg

[MrRoboto]

36% Chance to sink your 110 fleet after scrambling. Wow that’s tempting, it would change the Euro side quite drastically. And I can always retreat to 112 if the first round goes average or even below average.

I need to think about that. And you’re giving me 25% on another extremely tempting target too…

Would you go for it in 110?
It doesn’t mean Europe would be won, but it could give Germany quite some time to get Moscow. 1/3 Chance to secure that side?

[gamerman01]

Bah, notifications not working.

Will look at the game now

[gamerman01]

I’ll admit I don’t know where the 25%er is
Of course I wouldn’t go for it, that’s why I left it for you. If it’s a hard decision, I did well :blush:

[MrRoboto]

Ger8.tsvg

Game History

Round: 7

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 1 carrier, 3 infantry, 6 mech_infantrys and 2 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 infantry moved from Archangel to Vologda
              Germans take Vologda from Russians
        1 infantry moved from Belarus to Smolensk
              Germans take Smolensk from Russians
        1 infantry moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium
        1 infantry moved from France to Holland Belgium
        1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Holland Belgium
            Germans attack with 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            British defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 2/5 hits, 2,17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Holland Belgium
            Germans win, taking Holland Belgium from British with 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        2 aaGuns, 24 armour, 10 artilleries, 23 infantry and 11 mech_infantrys moved from Western Ukraine to Ukraine
        1 bomber moved from Western Ukraine to Western Germany
        1 armour, 2 infantry and 6 mech_infantrys moved from Germany to Poland
        1 armour and 6 mech_infantrys moved from Poland to Eastern Poland
        4 mech_infantrys moved from Yugoslavia to Eastern Poland
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Greece to Bulgaria
        2 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to Western Germany
        1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Holland Belgium to Western Germany
        1 submarine moved from 124 Sea Zone to 122 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Western Germany to 112 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Novgorod to Belarus
        2 infantry moved from Novgorod to Baltic States
        3 infantry moved from Karelia to Novgorod
        1 artillery moved from Western Germany to France

    Place Units - Germans
        3 infantry placed in Novgorod
        1 carrier and 2 submarines placed in 112 Sea Zone
        6 mech_infantrys placed in Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 50 PUs; end with 50 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 55 PUs
        Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 60 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : -0,17
British regular : -0,33

I didn’t dare to do it.

[gamerman01]

@MrRoboto said in L23 BM4 Gamerman (Allies+10) vs Roboto (Axis):

I didn’t dare to do it.

:innocent:

I would have simply hearted your post but I can’t because I hit the max. I never knew there was a max per day until last night.

[gamerman01]

Wow. This is going to be interesting. Sometimes once I look at it a minute and get an idea and work it out, I don’t consider other options. A lot of room for improvement.

Well, I’m gonna do it again, go with my instincts.

[gamerman01]

Nope, first idea isn’t too good. Second one definitely is.

[gamerman01]

OK, I think this was the third idea. Or so.

R8.tsvg

[MrRoboto]

The 25% chance is the Persian factory.
Huge carrot in front of me…

[gamerman01]

@MrRoboto Ahhhh, from memory that sounds about right.

If you don’t offer up carrots, you’re not doing it right :laughing:

I was just now looking for a post by you that I had just glanced minutes ago. I don’t think I’d seen it before. Can’t find it in league discussion or post results. Hmmmmmm

[gamerman01]

Checked your recent posts, not seeing it. I don’t expect you to accommodate me, but if you know what I’m talking about…

[MrRoboto]

Which post are you talking about?

[gamerman01]

I don’t know, I thought it was one I’d missed and it was general discussion and it looked interesting enough I definitely wanted to read it!

Maybe I’m wrong, maybe it was one I had read.

[gamerman01]

Maybe you can just say something interesting right now that will make up for it.

[MrRoboto]

If you shuffle a deck of cards, you have made history, since this combination of cards has never existed before (most likely)

[gamerman01]

That is very interesting. At first it doesn’t seem true, but then you consider nCr and 52, and then it’s believable. Especially because there are many years in human history where no one played cards at all.

[MrRoboto]

A specific combination is 1 in 51!

52! is about 8*10^63 if I’m not mistaken.

Just for comparison, the amount of protons (not even atoms!) in the whole planet earth is something like 10^50 or so.

[MrRoboto]

52, not 51 of course

[MrRoboto]

Japan7.tsvg

Game History

Round: 7

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 10 infantry and 3 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Hunan to Yunnan
        2 bombers moved from French Indo China to Yunnan
        1 submarine moved from 35 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 16 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 6 Sea Zone to 16 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Dutch New Guinea to New Guinea
              Japanese take New Guinea from ANZAC

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in 33 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 submarine
            Americans defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in 33 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Americans: 1 transport
        Battle in 16 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber
            Americans defend with 1 submarine
                Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 16 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 16 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Americans lost in 16 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine
        Battle in Yunnan
            Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 2 bombers and 3 infantry
            British defend with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 2 bombers and 3 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 2/6 hits, 2,33 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the British and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Yunnan
            Japanese win, taking Yunnan from Chinese with 1 artillery, 2 bombers and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for British: 1 artillery and 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        3 infantry moved from Anhwe to Hunan
        3 infantry moved from Shantung to Anhwe
        4 infantry moved from Hunan to Kwangsi
        3 infantry moved from Kwangtung to Kwangsi
        3 infantry moved from Kwangsi to French Indo China
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Ceylon to 39 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Dutch New Guinea to 45 Sea Zone
        3 carriers, 1 cruiser, 3 fighters, 1 infantry, 3 tactical_bombers and 1 transport moved from 45 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from 37 Sea Zone to Malaya
        8 submarines moved from 35 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 45 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Korea to 6 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 6 Sea Zone to 19 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Manchuria to 19 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun moved from Korea to Manchuria
        3 mech_infantrys moved from Manchuria to Anhwe
        4 infantry moved from Manchuria to Jehol
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 20 Sea Zone to Kwangtung
        3 submarines moved from 6 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 6 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 carrier, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 6 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 16 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Manchuria to Japan
        1 fighter moved from Manchuria to Japan
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from French Indo China to 6 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from French Indo China to Shan State
        2 bombers moved from Yunnan to French Indo China
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from French Indo China to Hunan
        1 artillery, 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 3 infantry, 1 tactical_bomber and 2 transports moved from 39 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from 37 Sea Zone to Malaya

    Place Units - Japanese
        3 infantry placed in Manchuria
        3 infantry placed in French Indo China
        1 destroyer and 1 submarine placed in 20 Sea Zone
        3 infantry placed in Shantung
        1 infantry placed in Kwangtung
        1 carrier and 2 submarines placed in 6 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Japanese collect 64 PUs; end with 64 PUs
        Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 67 PUs
        Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 72 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese regular : -0,67
Americans regular : -0,17
Japanese regular : -0,83