Help with current game?



  • I’m currently playing a game with a friend, putting in about an hour each weekend. I thought I had a pretty good, if standard, strategy for the first part of the game. Unfortunately in the last turn things went a little sour. He managed a couple of strikes against considerable odds, which included the complete sinking of my British navy when I had an 87 percent chance of victory in the encounter. Not only did he win (beginning with 4 fighters and a bomber), but he had a bomber and fighter left over afterwards. Pretty crippling for Britain.

    He also managed flawless strikes on pearl harbor and in nearly every Asian fight, leaving him spread out, but completely unhampered, in Asia. In particular, he just managed to WIN a fight between my bomber and his transport (his transport hit me, and I missed - Ouch).  That transport concerns me greatly for the mobility it gives him in africa. I will have to leave men there to defend it now… men I don’t have.

    I’ve tried to compensate as best I can. I combined an american carrier with British waters so I could build more transports after the complete annihilation. America is slowing trying to shunt men to africa on a march to asia, but he’s also dropped men into alaska (forcing me to build an army to move up there). This is precarious because it leaves my american transports undefended going to/from africa (I had to move the american carrier to try to help britain). If he noticed and sent his remaining airforce, he can potentially disrupt american reinforcements for another turn or two.

    As a bottom line, I think Russia can hold off Japan for an almost indefinite period of time (at least 5 turns, based on his current troop layout). But to do so requires Russia to leave germany alone. Britain is not prepared to mount a successful attack on germany, who has far more troops (and I just lost my navy). And I can’t see how America can help britain, because doing so leaves Japan to grow completely unrestricted.

    I think I’ve lost at this point, his luck more than his strategy has turned me at every attempt. My plan it to try to hunker Russia into Russia (the territory), and have infantry/plane strikes at armies that come within one spot of it. Meanwhile I would like to try and get Britain into Karerlia and begin attacking Germany from there with Britain. Since an American carrier is protecting british transports, and britian doesn’t have the money for a carrier of its own, I can’t move my fleet to hit germany where it’s weak. I see my only option as the karelia one. But I don’t see how Britain can win alone, so it would require at least America. But I’m in a rock/hardplace situation, because as I mentioned earlier, his luck in Asia has made Japan unstoppable there. Without America on a steady stream into Africa->Asia, his Japan can and will easily take africa and eventually russia.

    I’m very interested in opinions on what my upcoming strategy should be. Please be aware that it’s GERMANY’s turn, so he will go before I can do anything. The file is from TripleA.

    Thanks for anyone who has the time/interest to check it out.

    [attachment deleted by admin]


  • 2007 AAR League

    That map is at the start of a German turn. It would be easier to advise with one at the beginning of the UK turn.

    You can’t really beat bad dice.

    I think you have enough guys in Africa already, don’t waste any more there.

    Build nothing but Infantry.

    You can still move the UK fleet, and then move the US Carrier before Germany goes.

    But if not having fleet protection is really hampering you, then the UK might just have to afford a carrier. While it may mean less ground units for the UK, it will force the Germans to spread more units around for defence.

    You should definitely make the Ukraine a stronghold. If the UK lands there and then 10 Russian Inf move in for defence it should hold, esp. if you add a tank and maybe some Fighters. Just stack Inf in Russia to hold Japan at bay.

    I don’t think your position is as bad as you think.

    Disclaimer - I’ve only ever played A&A Revised.



  • My PC did not recognize the map file extension.



  • No.  Sometimes luck is a factor.

    When you start having repeated instances of the 1% results in favor of the same side (or even large numbers of the top 25% of possible results) luck can decimate the most sound strategy.

    That is a big part of why your friend Agent Smith refused to take me on (despite repeated challenges)… he did not want to risk his boilerplate sim-tested low luck strategies against a player who WOULD occasionally “roll the dice” on a 40% battle… knowing he would lose 2 out of 5 times on average in such an exchange.

    Bad luck can destroy you.  Good luck can possibly save a bad strategy.  It is usually not an issue for a quality player (say 8 games out of 10).  But 2 out of 10 you WILL get the repeated bad dice, or the crippling bad dice early enough that even the greatest strategist ever born could not recover.

    He forgot the cardinal component of Axis and Allies… it is a GAME.


  • 2007 AAR League

    Yeah, I learned this in a recent game. Me and CC were the Axis and the following happened:

    1. Russia took Ukraine and WRus practically without loss
    2. Germany failed to take Egypt, despite attacking with 4 ground and 2 air units
    3. Japan failed to take China, attacking with 6 Inf 1 Arm 1 Ftr.

    As a result, the UK got into the Med and killed the German fleet, Germany had no units in Africa and Japan had next to no units on the mainland. That was all the result of bad dice. Granted, the Suez could have been closed by sacrificing a fighter to take Egypt with a tank, but then you are down another fighter.

    Compounding this was a tactical error that put a Japanese carrier and 2 fighters at risk of being sunk by a UK sub. But we didn’t even play to see that happen, we just conceded after J1.

    So that was a case where two reasonably competent players (if I may say so) got screwed by the dice.



  • Exactly.

    The odds of Japan losing in China with that force attacking are ZERO POINT 4 PERCENT.

    Anyone who expects a player to make up for that type of result (when combined with other dice bias battles against them), IS AN IDIOT.

    You expect dice to average out over time.  The skill element is to minimize their influence as much as possible, and to compensate for (or take advantage of) the non-average dice as they occur.  With a normal exchange and bell curve of dice a good player can do this, consistently, and win 2 out of 3 games (or more) on average.

    Being afraid to even risk the dice is, to my thinking, the sign of a poor player, with no ability to adapt and change with the game as it progresses.

    We all win (and lose) occasionally due to dice.  But dice are part of the game, and those who are afraid of them are playing the WRONG game.


  • 2007 AAR League

    @nuno:

    @ncscswitch:

    That is a big part of why your friend Agent Smith refused to take me on (despite repeated challenges)…

    Given the False statements you’ve been posting (probably got higher instructions/orders…) …
    Such new association/claim attempt doesn’t surprise me.

    @ncscswitch:

    Exactly.

    The odds of Japan losing in China with that force attacking are ZERO POINT 4 PERCENT.

    Anyone who expects a player to make up for that type of result (when combined with other dice bias battles against them), IS AN IDIOT.

    Americans.

    :? :? :? :? :? :?

    Nuno, just curious (no offence) - what is your first language?



  • Nuno, I am my own boss.  The ONLY “orders” I am under for this site is to help grow traffic.

    When I speak regarding Agent Smith, you can go and check for yourself in older threads and see the score (or more) of times that I challenged Agent Smith to put up or shut up.  He refused in EVERY SINGLE CASE, because he refused to risk ADS.

    That is not exaggeration, that is not hyperbole.  That is hard cold FACT, and is recorded in a variety of threads for anyone to see.

    I hate to say it, but your alter ego was a coward.



  • Hehehehe I think those comments are really helpfull for tenth8sphere 😉 I will post some advice later today for you T8S. (Advice I think is usefull, so don’t attack me with the lame ‘poor strategy’ comment)


  • 2007 AAR League

    @ncscswitch:

    Nuno, I am my own boss.  The ONLY “orders” I am under for this site is to help grow traffic.

    When I speak regarding Agent Smith, you can go and check for yourself in older threads and see the score (or more) of times that I challenged Agent Smith to put up or shut up.  He refused in EVERY SINGLE CASE, because he refused to risk ADS.

    That is not exaggeration, that is not hyperbole.  That is hard cold FACT, and is recorded in a variety of threads for anyone to see.

    I hate to say it, but your alter ego was a coward.

    Is nuno aka “Agent Smith” or are you just saying that he’s posting the same kind of comments without being willing to back them up?


  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    Nothing but a bunch of (American) Democracy supporters….

    noticing that YET AGAIN your starting problems on this site from continued vitriolic against the same forces you claim are “not worth your time to respond to”

    And YET AGAIN you have managed to comment on them thinking all the while your so clever with your comments.

    Your condescending attitude with others here will only create problems for you.

    Evidence: ( via from your last posts)

    It’s really the people you’ve been playing with…

    That’s because the level of competition among Americans didn’t increase in (almost?)10 years…

    Did he already reach a teen age?

    Surelly you don’t know what you’re talking about…

    Nor you can be any good at it…

    Given the False statements you’ve been posting (probably got higher instructions/orders…) …
    Such new association/claim attempt doesn’t surprise me…

    I suggest you calm down and leave out your Agent Smith/SHP/F_alk types of caustic nuggets to your own behavior. No wonder why they got rid of you at that other site.

    nice Karma BTW!


  • 2007 AAR League

    @nuno:

    @Ender:

    Is nuno aka “Agent Smith” or are you just saying that he’s posting the same kind of comments without being willing to back them up?

    ncscswitch (Americans if you will) is just campaigning these (false) statements because he reached a point where he can only prevail through the wide spread/publication of his version of the facts as the ultimate Truth.
    Consequently the need of Censorship rights…
    Nothing but a bunch of (american) Democracy supporters.

    Okay, so, I guess you are going to strike mighty blows for Truth and Freedom by annoying people on a board-game discussion forum?

    Never has there been a brighter hope for the future! You truly shall be the saviour of humanity! Huzzah! Huzzah!

    Oh, that I lived to see this day!!!

    :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:



  • @nuno:

    @Ender:

    Is nuno aka “Agent Smith” or are you just saying that he’s posting the same kind of comments without being willing to back them up?

    ncscswitch (Americans if you will) is just campaigning these (false) statements because he reached a point where he can only prevail through the wide spread/publication of his version of the facts as the ultimate Truth.
    Consequently the need of Censorship rights…
    Nothing but a bunch of (american) Democracy supporters.

    I am glad you think I speak for 300,000,000 people.

    As for “lies”, you have yet to refute my statements regarding Agent Smith and his repeated refusal to ever accept a challenge of a game by me.  Go ahead, read the archives.  They are here and uncensored.  He was only willing to play with the House Rule of Low Luck (and let us all remember what you said of House Rule players… they cannot win with the actual game rules, so they create a variant that allows them to win… they are INFERIOR players… YOUR words, not mine)

    Lastly, you obviously know little about me with your “democracy” statement.  For many months my sig file was “Democracy = 2 wolves and a sheep voting on whats for dinner”.  You would also know that I am a rabid Libertarian and a strict Constitutionalist with a serious penchant for Federated Republics.
    Not that you care, you blasted Republicans elsewhere, so I guess it is just a “flavor of the month” attack for you, whatever you think will get the biggest rise.

    Just remember this, your “buddy” was too much of a coward to play me.  Does not say much for you when your idol is so afraid of “hack” like me.  :roll:


  • 2007 AAR League

    Talk about delusions of grandeur. As if “Americans” as a whole care about some guy named nuno’s prowess as an AAR player.

    This guy is either seriously disturbed, or just a plain ol’ troll… Best ignored, either way.



  • Go look for yourself then that AS refused to play me…

    There are a LOT of threads…

    Though Agent Smith apparently removed many of his posts prior to his departure, there are enough remnants in quotes of others posts that you can verify the challenges that were issued…

    http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=6376.msg95753#msg95753

    http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=6376.msg95819#msg95819

    Now be on your way silly man…  or accept the challenges that Agent Smith refused…

    Though at this point, let’s play Revised, ADS.  You up for it?

    I doubt it… your type never change…


  • 2007 AAR League

    I played nuno once, actually. He did okay… once my pet hamster took over for me. But then I came back and sacked Tokyo and Berlin both in Round 7.

    I eat lightweights like nuno for breakfast.


  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    Half year before I was banned at AAMC … blah blah blah

    Sounds like wounded pride?

    Ender good call.


  • 2017 '16 '15 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    I don’t dispute this, though I didn’t hear Agent Smith version of the facts.
    Oh, Wait, he’s banned! So you can pass whatever you like as the valid Truth! Cheesy

    If he was banned YOU would not be here with your new name as ‘Nuno’… and yet here you are. Rather shameful if you ask me.



  • @Ender:

    I played nuno once, actually. He did okay… once my pet hamster took over for me. But then I came back and sacked Tokyo and Berlin both in Round 7.

    I eat lightweights like nuno for breakfast.

    So he lost to #12 (as of the last update) in the League?

    And not just lost… lost BOTH Axis capitals in just 7 turns of play?

    That explains a LOT about him  😉


  • 2007 AAR League

    @ncscswitch:

    @Ender:

    I played nuno once, actually. He did okay… once my pet hamster took over for me. But then I came back and sacked Tokyo and Berlin both in Round 7.

    I eat lightweights like nuno for breakfast.

    So he lost to #12 (as of the last update) in the League?

    And not just lost… lost BOTH Axis capitals in just 7 turns of play?

    That explains a LOT about him  😉

    Well, my hamster probably would have done the same thing by round 10


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