The UK fleet is:
1 BB (so first hit fom Luftwaffe means nothing)
1 AC
2 FIG
3 TRN
That lands 6 units per turn, with a BB shot, and air cover of 2 FIGs and a BOM if desired
Even if somehow, miraculously, the ENTIRE Luftwaffe is till alive on G3, AND in position to strike the UK fleet AND is not needed for other combat…
The odds of the UK winning the battle is 56% If just ONE German FIG is lost (oh say… UKRAINE on R1), the odds of the luftwaffe killing the UK fleet drop to 14.7%
Meanwhile, I will STILL have dropped 6 divisions in Europe by that time (since if you did nto build an AC, my fleet stayed put and did not go to Africa), and that force drop was 2 ARM, 1 ART, 3 INF, backed up by BB shot and AF.
And run THOSE forces through a SIM… that kills 10 INF divisions 75% of the time.
You REALLY do not want the UK to be able to land freely via the Baltic on UK2. You won;t ahve any forces to send TOWARD Moscow, you will be stacking Berlin instead.
Meanwhile… USA just dumped into Africa, set up a NAD strat, and you ahve a similar invasion risk in Southern now also, and a 1-2 punch risk for Western.
It just is NOT pretty to let the German Fleet die without at least being able to do some SERIOUS damage. And it is better to keep it alive a while…