Alright.
If we’re going for a G3 Sealion, then yeah, Greece is an alright idea. Assuming we don’t want Italy to take it, which I guess it could do with its I1.
This G2 seems pretty ideal.
So UK should NOT scramble its planes on G1 in order to retain options for UK 2, such as hitting sz111 or sz112/113.
If there are 4 UK planes in UK and 2 in Gib, then skip Scotland, and do this, or buy a DD to go with the new TTs. Will only be able to get 8 TTs, though, not 10.
Without running the numbers, 11 TTs and landing in Scotland seems about the same to me as just getting 13 TTs and no Scotland.
As for Greece, I’ll leave it, but it can just as easily not be done.
Sounds good.
When we run for a planned G4 Sealion, though, we should avoid Greece. Germany will need those Inf elsewhere.
Although I’d think that 11 TT + Scotland (3 in Scotland) = 14 loads
So it is just slightly better than a normal 13 TT.
And the way we distributed German air for G1, wouldn’t scrambling be to UK’s disadvantage, anyway?
Seem just right, about preserving the RAF to enable these options we’re discussing.
Couple points regarding this entire discussion -
Do we want to run some scenarios based on different outcomes of G1 106?
I figure it’s the biggest variable of the various battles setting up for Sealion.
Also - a minor point based on a much earlier thought:
Hitting 110 instead of 111 would require a bit more air power, but not nearly as much as if we were hitting both navies, that way we could still take Paris and Normandy with very acceptable odds
.
Interesting. Could UK take advatage of it, though? Like hitting sz112?
If Germany loses the CA in sz112, and the UK CA in sz91 survives (50%), then UK could hit sz112 with 51% success. A risk, but I’d take it with UK instead of waiting for Germany to get better than even odds of taking London.
In this hypothetical I suggested, of hitting 110 and not 111, the 124 sub hits 112 along with the German navy.
Therefore there’s really no threat of losing the Cruiser.
It also leaves 2 subs to take 106, making victory there much more likely.
I understand there’s also large cons to doing this, and we’re already far into this discussion, so feel free to just ignore it.
Just a minor thought.
That gives England a BB making hitting SZ 92 much harder.
But that BB is in 111. It’s not really in a position to find both mobility and protection from Germany on its next turn. Plus it’ll take 2 turns to get to 92.
Also, the plan for I1 that we’ve been going with for this scenario doesn’t involve hitting 92 anyway.
Again, just a thought.
Sounds good.
When we run for a planned G4 Sealion, though, we should avoid Greece. Germany will need those Inf elsewhere.Although I’d think that 11 TT + Scotland (3 in Scotland) = 14 loads
So it is just slightly better than a normal 13 TT.And the way we distributed German air for G1, wouldn’t scrambling be to UK’s disadvantage, anyway?
Seem just right, about preserving the RAF to enable these options we’re discussing.
If going for a G4, the odds of Success for Germany will all depend on the outcome of a 2 round battle in Scotland on UK3. Looks like UK can hit Scotland on UK3 with 23 inf, 1 art, 4 tanks, 5 fht, 1 tac.
The idea is not to take it, but hit for 2 rounds to cause more damage than it receives, and pull back.
If Germany only has 10 TTs for a G4 Sealion, as others suggest, then UK should maul the 20 units in Scotland, leaving Germany with not enough to take Londonn on G4.
So we should look at the maximum number that Germany has to invest in, as 10 TTs or less is not enough.
How about this, then?
I’m avoiding Scotland, as 4 fht vs 3 fht, 1 DD in sz113 is just too risky.
Safer to just sit in sz112 with the whole fleet. I usually only take Scotland if my opponent doesn’t have the aircraft, but this scenario just leaves options in the hands of the UK.
With this UK defense, G3 Sealion is 70%, surviving with 6 units. Very variable, and not enough units to bring back to Poland.
Onto G4 Sealion, then.
Here’s G2 final. Let’s look at UK 2 now.
Has anyone considered dropping an AAgun in Scotland with Germany? UK may not want to lose 1 plane for a hit and run…could you imagine if they lost 2.
If I go Scotland turn 2, I build a second carrier with Germany. (that may not fit your style)
Also, would there be a benefit, to using a G2 Scotland landing via sz 109 as bait for a UK air assault on the Scotland fleet. You could bait this, by leaving the BB and Cruiser out of it. Place 2-3 transports, a carrier and 2 planes, land 2 units in Erie so that your planes can land there. This can be varied, like dropping 4 units in Erie, and 2 infantry in Scotland. How much would they hit Scotland with, how much would be pulled out if they win, would an aa gun change this or force more land out of London?
If they hit the carrier to sink the fleet. Because you can land in Erie, you get to choose the carrier as the first 2 hits, and force a round 2 to sink those transports, giving your 2 planes 3-4 rolls against the UK air force. (this assumes no UK navy to support, maybe that is a bad premiss)
Something to consider.
This seems rather peculiar.
By concentrating all the efforts to saving London, the brits have to completely give away Africa and the middle east to the Italians, easily allowing them to have an income in the range of the 45 or more IPCs per turn.
Furtheremore, the UK will be soon reduced to about 18-20 IPCs turn, without counting convoys.
So is it actually worth it, is my question?
If I go Scotland turn 2, I build a second carrier with Germany. (that may not fit your style)
Also, would there be a benefit, to using a G2 Scotland landing via sz 109 as bait for a UK air assault on the Scotland fleet. You could bait this, by leaving the BB and Cruiser out of it. Place 2-3 transports, a carrier and 2 planes, land 2 units in Erie so that your planes can land there. This can be varied, like dropping 4 units in Erie, and 2 infantry in Scotland. How much would they hit Scotland with, how much would be pulled out if they win, would an aa gun chance this or force more land out of London?
If you take Scotland through sz109, you HAVE to block sz104 with your CA, or the fleet is toast with 99%. UK survives with all planes, and Germany loses 2 fht and 3 TT. Sealion is out of the question now.
If you block with the DD, the battle drops to 54%.
Also, if you buy the CV to protect the new TTs, you can only buy 7 TTs. UK can put its ships in sz110 to prevent loading of the 3 TTs from sz109, so only the 7 TTs in sz112 can be loaded. Sz112 is safe, but Sealion odds are 5% with so few TTs.
James, the purchase of a second CV stops 3 TT from getting bought. Considering the point of the G2 Scotland invasion is to add 3 loads of transports to Sealion, it seems rather counter-productive to buy three less TT. Hitting Scotland in this case adds nothing of benefit to Sealion, but does put a loaded CV and 3 TT at risk.
So is it actually worth it, is my question?
Well London could either drop to the 18-20 for a while, or it make life difficult for Italy and then immediately drop to 0. Is that worth it? Up to UK, and up to how determined Germany is.
My point is that UK falls regardless.
It just seems that, if the German player decides that he wants to do so, he will give a savage beating to the UK. Unless they pull out absolutely everything to London, in which case they just take a pretty good beating.
I am starting not to understand how the game is supposed to be tilted in favour of the Axis, when London will systematically fall.
Well the other side of this token is that Russia will take a long time to be in any danger.
And a good point that Jen has brought up a couple times is that UK can pull everything to London for a G4 Sealion, then suddenly whip its fleet and airforce into the Med on UK3 in order to force Germany to commit full resources to G4, while also making life more difficult for Italy. You trade several German units living for a less dominate Italy.
My point is that UK falls regardless.
I think we are showing that either it will hold, or that it is risky to take.
I am not convinced that a a German player that has sea lion in mind, would let the barge in z106 live nor the Normandy fighter, in G1.
Well we’re definitely killing the fighter in Normandy, and we have a 1/3 chance of destroying the TT in 106. We can’t really allocate any more subs to that fight with the G1 open we’re going with.
I don’t think you have been following this thread.
Normandy was hit, and so was sz106. All needed spaces were hit with best possible odds, and the likely outcomes were used.
I see. You assumed that the destroyed was sunk but not the transport.
And the 4 fighters in the UK, at the end of their first turn include the one from gibraltar. When I saw one there, I thought it hadn’t moved, but it is the one from matla.
My apologies, gentlemen.
