Best UK defense for Sealion 3 or 4 collaboration

[jim010]

If I go Scotland turn 2, I build a second carrier with Germany. (that may not fit your style)

Also, would there be a benefit, to using a G2 Scotland landing via sz 109 as bait for a UK air assault on the Scotland fleet. You could bait this, by leaving the BB and Cruiser out of it. Place 2-3 transports, a carrier and 2 planes, land 2 units in Erie so that your planes can land there. This can be varied, like dropping 4 units in Erie, and 2 infantry in Scotland. How much would they hit Scotland with, how much would be pulled out if they win, would an aa gun chance this or force more land out of London?

If  you take Scotland through sz109, you HAVE to block sz104 with your CA, or the fleet is toast with 99%.  UK survives with all planes, and Germany loses 2 fht and 3 TT.  Sealion is out of the question now.

If you block with the DD, the battle drops to 54%.

Also, if you buy the CV to protect the new TTs, you can only buy 7 TTs.  UK can put its ships in sz110 to prevent loading of the 3 TTs from sz109, so only the 7 TTs in sz112 can be loaded.  Sz112 is safe, but Sealion odds are 5% with so few TTs.

[Alsch91]

James, the purchase of a second CV stops 3 TT from getting bought.  Considering the point of the G2 Scotland invasion is to add 3 loads of transports to Sealion, it seems rather counter-productive to buy three less TT.  Hitting Scotland in this case adds nothing of benefit to Sealion, but does put a loaded CV and 3 TT at risk.

@captainhook:

So is it actually worth it, is my question?

Well London could either drop to the 18-20 for a while, or it make life difficult for Italy and then immediately drop to 0.  Is that worth it?  Up to UK, and up to how determined Germany is.

[captainhook]

My point is that UK falls regardless.

It just seems that, if the German player decides that he wants to do so, he will give a savage beating to the UK. Unless they pull out absolutely everything to London, in which case they just take a pretty good beating.

I am starting not to understand how the game is supposed to be tilted in favour of the Axis, when London will systematically fall.

[Alsch91]

Well the other side of this token is that Russia will take a long time to be in any danger.

And a good point that Jen has brought up a couple times is that UK can pull everything to London for a G4 Sealion, then suddenly whip its fleet and airforce into the Med on UK3 in order to force Germany to commit full resources to G4, while also making life more difficult for Italy.  You trade several German units living for a less dominate Italy.

[jim010]

My point is that UK falls regardless.

I think we are showing that either it will hold, or that it is risky to take.

[jim010]

UK2

What to do with UK Fleet.  Consolidate in sz91?

UK2.AAM

[captainhook]

I am not convinced that a a German player that has sea lion in mind, would let the barge in z106 live nor the Normandy fighter, in G1.

[Alsch91]

Well we’re definitely killing the fighter in Normandy, and we have a 1/3 chance of destroying the TT in 106.  We can’t really allocate any more subs to that fight with the G1 open we’re going with.

[jim010]

I don’t think you have been following this thread.

Normandy was hit, and so was sz106.  All needed spaces were hit with best possible odds, and the likely outcomes were used.

[captainhook]

I see. You assumed that the destroyed was sunk but not the transport.

And the 4 fighters in the UK, at the end of their first turn include the one from gibraltar. When I saw one there, I thought it hadn’t moved, but it is the one from matla.

My apologies, gentlemen.

[jim010]

When this has been followed through, I would then look at skipping sz111 on G1 in order to boost odds on sz106.

(but I suspect that is a bad idea to leave the UK an extra BB and DD)

[captainhook]

Wouldn’t it be better for UK troops in Egypt to withdrawn inside of Africa, instead of remaining in Egypt and get badly beat the next turn?

They could overpower the 2inf and 1art, and regroup on the next turn with the 2 inf coming from SAF, in congo.

[jim010]

That’s my thinking.  I only moved the TTs and planes to reinforce London.  I didn’t do anything with the rest.  Waiting for input.

[jim010]

I would advocate hitting Iraq with 3 inf, 2 fht, 1 tac, 1 CA, 1 BB (assuming that Inidian units are properly placed - no reason to assume they are not.)

[jim010]

This as a final UK2?

UK2a.AAM

[Alsch91]

@jim010:

When this has been followed through, I would then look at skipping sz111 on G1 in order to boost odds on sz106.

(but I suspect that is a bad idea to leave the UK an extra BB and DD)

I am interested to see how that would play out.
Also, do we want to later look at different outcomes of 106?  - with this scenario, that is -
For example, the destruction of the TT would obviously remove the 1 Inf, 1 Arm on London.  But the convoy could scew a couple other things as well.  It would prevent UK from buying 2 Arm on UK2, and who know what on UK3.

And I don’t think it’s practical to try everything, but the various subs that live G1 + surviving UK DDs would certainly also cause a few small opportunity changes.

[jim010]

Germany is more likely to live with more subs than UK is to live with that DD in sz106.

If the sz106 ships are dead, and I got more subs than anticipated, I’d be quite concerned as UK.

[Alsch91]

One thing I noticed - why did you move the Inf in Yugo to Hungary, and not Southern Germany, as to be able to take part in a G4 Sealion?

And with the 91 stack -
If Italy plays differently and has TT in range of Gibraltar, then it might not be quite as good for UK.  Germany could nuke the fleet, land in Gib, and be able to hit UK (landing in Scotland) on G4 with all its air still.
The way Italy is here, though, it seems fine to me.

[captainhook]

@jim010:

This as a final UK2?

You have my approval. For what it is worth.

[Alsch91]

Yeah, seems good.  Just remember that UK won’t get its NO.