Apart from the “bid”, an Axis win requires some amount of good fortune. Your good fortune could come in the form of a poor strategy by one or more Allied players, a terrible round of dice for the Allied player giving you an opportunity that should not have occurred, or in a payoff wild gamble attack of good luck for the Axis, which most likely would have to occur in one of the first three turns of Germany against Russia. If you are a very solid player yourself and your opponent is not, play a solid game and wait for the Allies to hang themselves. If the Allies player(s) is very solid, you may have to make a big gamble and put the whole game on the line. For example, Russia often stacks their tanks with infantry to create a counter attacking force against German gains on the Western front. As Germany, you may have to take a low percentage chance and knock out the whole stack, and then hope the Russian counter attack not only doesn’t defeat you, but leaves you with some infantry and all your tanks.
I think a German crush of Russia is the most probable chance, with Japan’s help, and I agree Germany should get the whole of Africa as quickly as possible. Even if Russia is not eliminated, but severely pushed back onto his heels (e.g. losing the Cacuses and all their tanks and fighters leaving them defending Russia and maybe two other provinces with an infantry stack), the Axis can hope to make it a game where the US is doing all it can to keep Japan at bay and keep the UK in the game.