AA1914 - Playing with Statistical Losses



  • If you are interested in trying a new way to play AA1914, my friends and I have been using the math game for a few tries so far and we really like it. It makes it much less about a bad throw of the dice and more about strategy.

    Here’s how we play it : for land battles, we add the hit value of units (an attacking infantry is 2 or 3 if supported by artillery, artillery is 3 or 4 if air superiority, etc.). If the combat value is 20 or higher, we then add the points together, divide by 6 (6-sided die) and round that number, which gives us the kill count. We finally roll one die to modify that number by +/-10% depending on the roll (-10% on a 1 or 2, +10% on a 5 or 6, and no change on a 3 or 4). Kills prevented by tanks are then subtracted.

    For sea combat, air combat, and land battles where the combat value is less than 20, normal dice rolling applies. This leaves a bit of luck in the game and makes it a strategic decision of whether or not you commit a “statistical” force to an objective or take a risk. Ships and airplanes are just too small in numbers to make it worthwhile.

    I can say this approach has many advantages :

    1. Fights are done much more quickly, therefore the game moves along a lot more smoothly
    2. Much less frustration about losing over a poor roll in a critical battle
    3. The +/- 10% still can change the balance of a fight
    4. Tanks have an even greater effect as they move the loss ratio away from the means, which is much more significant than say making up for bad rolls.

    I’ve been juggling with the idea of making -15/-10/0/0/+10/+15 variations on rolls, but right now this has made an already great game even better for us.

    If you want to try it out, let me know how it works out for you !


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    Ok. Low luck with a twist right ?
    So how does the -10/+10 roll work ? say
    A
    6 inf = 15
    3 art = 6
    Total = 21 points
    Then div 6 into 21 = 3.3
    3 hits plus a 3 left or half hit.
    How does the rest of this work ?



  • @SS-GEN said in AA1914 - Playing with Statistical Losses:

    Ok. Low luck with a twist right ?
    So how does the -10/+10 roll work ? say
    A
    6 inf = 15
    3 art = 6
    Total = 21 points
    Then div 6 into 21 = 3.3
    3 hits plus a 3 left or half hit.
    How does the rest of this work ?

    Hello!

    If using the 1914 values ( 2 for Inf, 3 for Artillery and supported Inf), it gives this :

    • 3 Inf x 2 = 6
    • 3 Supported Inf x 3 = 9
    • 3 Art x 3 = 9

    (9+9+6) = 24
    24 / 6 = 4 hits.
    Roll for +/- 10%. We typically call for a minimum variance of one, so you would end up with between 3 and 5 kills.

    We round the number before rolling, so in your case, 21 hit points divided by 6 gives 3.5, so we count 4 kills before rolling for +/-.

    This makes for low luck games but that +/- 1 or 10% can be the difference sometimes between changing your strategy or staying with it without killing you on one bad roll.

    I hope this helps you out. Enjoy!


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