15L Playoff Rd1: [4] JDOW (Axis) vs. [5] Adam514 (Allies +27)

[Adam514]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 11

Purchase Units - British
            British repair damage of 2x factory_major, 1x factory_minor; Remaining resources: 38 PUs;
            British buy 2 artilleries, 1 fighter, 5 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - British
            3 infantry moved from Trans-Jordan to Iraq
            2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Egypt to Iraq
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Trans-Jordan to Iraq
            2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Trans-Jordan to Syria
            1 infantry moved from Trans-Jordan to Iraq
            1 bomber moved from Trans-Jordan to Syria
            1 fighter moved from Trans-Jordan to Syria
            1 fighter moved from Trans-Jordan to Iraq

Combat - British
            British creates battle in territory 97 Sea Zone
            Battle in Iraq
                British attack with 3 fighters, 4 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
                Italians defend with 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys
                British win, taking Iraq from Italians with 3 fighters, 3 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 11
                Casualties for British: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Italians: 1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys
            Battle in Syria
                British attack with 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                Germans defend with 2 mech_infantrys
                British win, taking Syria from Germans with 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
                Casualties for Germans: 2 mech_infantrys
                Casualties for British: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - British
            1 fighter moved from Syria to Cyprus
            1 destroyer moved from 92 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone
            1 battleship moved from 92 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from Egypt to Trans-Jordan
            2 fighters moved from Iraq to Egypt
            1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Iraq to Trans-Jordan
            1 infantry moved from West India to Eastern Persia
            1 mech_infantry moved from Italian Somaliland to British Somaliland
            1 mech_infantry moved from Belgian Congo to Italian Somaliland
            1 destroyer and 1 submarine moved from 71 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Syria to Normandy Bordeaux
            3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to 110 Sea Zone
            3 infantry and 2 transports moved from 110 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Norway to 112 Sea Zone
            4 infantry and 2 transports moved from 112 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
            4 infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux

Place Units - British
            1 mech_infantry placed in Union of South Africa
            1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Egypt
            1 artillery, 1 fighter and 3 infantry placed in United Kingdom

Turn Complete - British
            British collect 31 PUs; end with 32 PUs total
            Objective British 1 Original: British met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 37 PUs

Turn Complete - UK_Pacific

[JDOW]

So its doom’s day at Normandy?

Frankly, I would have expected you gonna try to escape and crush the Neutrals.
I was also considering to just keep the balance in Europe and to see where the game is going. There is still room to expand for the Axis. However it seemed like we both thought its time leave the fox holes and stand up and fight!

Now I see it was a waste of time to talk about dice at all. All what happened will be neglectable compared to what is most likely gonna happen on French ground:D

[Adam514]

Escaping into Spain isn’t a bad idea, but with Germany still having a transport in the Baltic and poised to get Turkey, saving the Normandy stack wouldn’t have done much except give you income and units. which the Spain stack sits there trading territories. If I were in the lead I might have backed out, but that’s not the case here.

[JDOW]

Btw: Did the UK BB stay on purpose in 33 or should it have moved to 54?

[JDOW]

And thanks for sharing thoughts, much appreciated. I already took many learnings from this game.

[Adam514]

Yeah it should be moved to 54, thanks.

You played very well, I didn’t play as well as I could have I think, with a few mistakes here and there and maybe the biggest one was taking Allies vs you  :wink:.

[JDOW]

Thanks, big compliment.

I seriously considered to just take Norway and continue with +8 for Germany and interrupted supply at Norway.

However I somehow also believe that taking a battle which is potentially decisive with odds on my side is the right thing if it means a shortcut to a game which could easily go 20+ rounds which required lots of time and thoughts and error-free moves.

So I give the game into the hand of the MARTI-engine. Let’s see if the Italians are willing to fight in a suicide mission or if they decide to desert.^^

[JDOW]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 11

Purchase Units - Italians
            Italians buy nothing; Remaining resources: 7 PUs;

Combat Move - Italians
            1 mech_infantry moved from Ukraine to Bryansk
            1 bomber moved from Caucasus to Bryansk
            3 artilleries moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
            3 infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
            2 infantry moved from Southern France to Normandy Bordeaux
            2 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 armour moved from Northern Italy to Normandy Bordeaux

Combat - Italians
            Battle in Bryansk
                Italians attack with 1 bomber and 1 mech_infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Italians win, taking Bryansk from Russians with 1 bomber and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
                Italians attack with 1 armour, 3 artilleries and 7 infantry
                British defend with 2 aaGuns, 1 bomber, 7 fighters, 12 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; Americans defend with 2 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 6 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 factory_minor, 2 fighters, 1 harbour, 21 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys; Russians defend with 2 fighters
                Americans win with 3 aaGuns, 6 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber, 11 fighters, 32 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is -31
                Casualties for Italians: 1 armour, 3 artilleries and 7 infantry
                Casualties for British: 1 aaGun
                Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Italians
            1 bomber moved from Bryansk to Germany
            1 mech_infantry moved from Germany to Romania
            1 fighter moved from Germany to Western Germany
            1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to France
            1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to France
            1 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
            1 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
            1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Western Germany

Turn Complete - Italians
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 10
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 93 Sea Zone. Rolls: 2,4
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 99 Sea Zone. Rolls: 6
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 6,6,4,4,5,1,3,2,4,2
            Italians collect 6 PUs (10 lost to blockades); end with 13 PUs total
            Objective Italians 4 Control Iraq Or Persia Or Northwest Persia: Italians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 15 PUs

[JDOW]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 11

Purchase Units - Italians
            Italians buy nothing; Remaining resources: 7 PUs;

Combat Move - Italians
            1 mech_infantry moved from Ukraine to Bryansk
            1 bomber moved from Caucasus to Bryansk
            3 artilleries moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
            3 infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
            2 infantry moved from Southern France to Normandy Bordeaux
            2 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 armour moved from Northern Italy to Normandy Bordeaux

Combat - Italians
            Battle in Bryansk
                Italians attack with 1 bomber and 1 mech_infantry
                Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Italians win, taking Bryansk from Russians with 1 bomber and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
                Italians attack with 1 armour, 3 artilleries and 7 infantry
                British defend with 2 aaGuns, 1 bomber, 7 fighters, 12 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; Americans defend with 2 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 6 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 factory_minor, 2 fighters, 1 harbour, 21 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys; Russians defend with 2 fighters
                Americans win with 3 aaGuns, 6 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 bomber, 11 fighters, 32 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is -31
                Casualties for Italians: 1 armour, 3 artilleries and 7 infantry
                Casualties for British: 1 aaGun
                Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Italians
            1 bomber moved from Bryansk to Germany
            1 mech_infantry moved from Germany to Romania
            1 fighter moved from Germany to Western Germany
            1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to France
            1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to France
            1 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
            1 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
            1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Western Germany

Turn Complete - Italians
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 10
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 93 Sea Zone. Rolls: 2,4
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 99 Sea Zone. Rolls: 6
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 6,6,4,4,5,1,3,2,4,2
            Italians collect 6 PUs (10 lost to blockades); end with 13 PUs total
            Objective Italians 4 Control Iraq Or Persia Or Northwest Persia: Italians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 15 PUs
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by British from 33 Sea Zone: 1 battleship
            EDIT: Adding units owned by British to 54 Sea Zone: 1 battleship
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

[JDOW]

As feared the Italians underdelivered with just 2 hits at 19 attack.

I took off Inf + AA.

Feel free to change if you want.

[Adam514]

You can always go for Norway if the Italians failed to give satisfying results  :wink:.

[Adam514]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 11

Purchase Units - ANZAC
            ANZAC buy 1 artillery, 1 submarine and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - ANZAC

Non Combat Move - ANZAC
            2 destroyers moved from 33 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
            3 fighters moved from Caroline Islands to Queensland
            2 infantry moved from South Australia to Queensland
            1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from New South Wales to Queensland
            1 fighter moved from New South Wales to Queensland

Place Units - ANZAC
            1 submarine and 1 transport placed in 62 Sea Zone
            1 artillery placed in New South Wales

Turn Complete - ANZAC
            ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 11 PUs total

[Adam514]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 11

Combat Move - French

Non Combat Move - French
            1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to Normandy Bordeaux

Turn Complete - French

[Adam514]

Changed inf for bomber.

[JDOW]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 12

Politics - Germans

Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 2 artilleries, 1 fighter, 9 infantry and 6 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Germans
            14 artilleries and 35 infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
            9 armour, 2 bombers, 1 fighter, 9 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Western Germany to Normandy Bordeaux
            2 fighters moved from Germany to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 fighter and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to Normandy Bordeaux
            3 infantry moved from Finland to Norway
            2 infantry moved from Baltic States to 115 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from 113 Sea Zone to Norway
            1 fighter moved from Novgorod to Norway
            1 armour moved from Caucasus to Kazakhstan
                  Germans take Kazakhstan from Russians
            1 armour moved from Kazakhstan to Caucasus
            1 infantry moved from Rostov to Volgograd
            1 artillery moved from Rostov to Volgograd
            1 armour moved from Rostov to Tambov
                  Germans take Tambov from Russians
            1 armour moved from Tambov to Rostov
            2 infantry moved from Northwest Persia to Iraq
            1 mech_infantry moved from Caucasus to Iraq
            1 armour moved from Caucasus to Iraq
            1 infantry moved from Rostov to Volgograd
            1 destroyer moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone

Combat - Germans
            Germans creates battle in territory 97 Sea Zone
            Battle in Norway
                Germans attack with 1 fighter and 5 infantry
                British defend with 1 aaGun; French defend with 2 infantry; Americans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor and 2 infantry
                2 infantry retreated to Finland
                Americans win with 4 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 1
                Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry
                Casualties for British: 1 aaGun
                Casualties for Americans: 1 aaGun
            Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
                Germans attack with 9 armour, 14 artilleries, 2 bombers, 4 fighters, 35 infantry, 9 mech_infantrys and 4 tactical_bombers
                British defend with 1 aaGun, 7 fighters, 12 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; French defend with 1 fighter; Americans defend with 2 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 6 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 factory_minor, 2 fighters, 1 harbour, 21 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys; Russians defend with 2 fighters
                Germans win, taking Normandy Bordeaux from Americans with 4 armour, 2 bombers, 3 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 69
                Casualties for Germans: 5 armour, 14 artilleries, 1 fighter, 35 infantry and 9 mech_infantrys
                Casualties for British: 1 aaGun, 7 fighters, 12 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                Casualties for French: 1 fighter
                Casualties for Americans: 2 aaGuns, 6 armour, 5 artilleries, 2 fighters, 21 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys
                Casualties for Russians: 2 fighters
            Battle in Volgograd
                Germans attack with 1 artillery and 2 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 factory_minor and 1 infantry
                Germans win, taking Volgograd from Russians with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Iraq
                Germans attack with 1 armour, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                British defend with 3 infantry
                1 armour owned by the Germans retreated to Northwest Persia
                British win with 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -10
                Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry

Non Combat Move - Germans
            1 infantry moved from Vyborg to Novgorod
            1 infantry moved from Baltic States to Novgorod
            2 bombers moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Western Germany
            1 fighter moved from Normandy Bordeaux to France
            1 fighter moved from Norway to Western Germany
            1 fighter moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Southern Italy
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Southern Italy
            3 tactical_bombers moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Western Germany
            1 fighter moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Western Germany
            1 aaGun moved from Caucasus to Northwest Persia
            1 infantry moved from Rostov to Caucasus
            7 mech_infantrys moved from Caucasus to Northwest Persia
            6 armour moved from Caucasus to Northwest Persia
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Caucasus to Northwest Persia
            1 mech_infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
            1 mech_infantry moved from Ukraine to Caucasus

Place Units - Germans
            1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Ukraine
            1 fighter and 2 infantry placed in Novgorod
            2 infantry placed in France
            1 infantry placed in Western Germany
            1 artillery, 2 infantry and 6 mech_infantrys placed in Germany
            Germans undo move 5.
            2 mech_infantrys placed in Western Germany
            Germans undo move 4.
            1 infantry placed in France
            1 artillery, 2 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys placed in Germany
            Germans undo move 4.
            1 mech_infantry placed in Germany
            1 mech_infantry placed in Western Germany
            Germans undo move 5.
            1 infantry placed in Western Germany
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys placed in Germany

Turn Complete - Germans
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 4
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 80 Sea Zone. Rolls: 2,3
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 4,5,4,3,1,3,2,1,6,2
            Germans collect 51 PUs (4 lost to blockades); end with 51 PUs total
            Objective Germans 6 Control Iraq Or Persia Or Northwest Persia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 53 PUs
            Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 63 PUs
            Objective Germans 3 Control Caucasus: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 68 PUs
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Japan: 1 bomber
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Philippines: 1 bomber
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

[JDOW]

Well, that was not exactly was I was hoping for (2-3 more survivors at Normandy and I would have been completely satisfied) but at least no reason to say that dice completely screwed any of us.

Perceived such big battles go more often below average than above average for the attacker. But I think this is why the median (in terms of average survivors when attacker won) does not equal the mean at such battles. Usually attackers have many 1s in the first rounds which are more sensitive to variance.

I btw thought taking AA off Norway was a no brainer with 2 hits round 1.

[Adam514]

Yeah I would lose 2 AA to that attack.

You need to look at average left not at average left when attackers win in order to get the most accurate estimate.

[JDOW]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 12

Politics - Germans

Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 2 artilleries, 1 fighter, 9 infantry and 6 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Germans
            14 artilleries and 35 infantry moved from France to Normandy Bordeaux
            9 armour, 2 bombers, 1 fighter, 9 mech_infantrys and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Western Germany to Normandy Bordeaux
            2 fighters moved from Germany to Normandy Bordeaux
            1 fighter and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to Normandy Bordeaux
            3 infantry moved from Finland to Norway
            2 infantry moved from Baltic States to 115 Sea Zone
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from 113 Sea Zone to Norway
            1 fighter moved from Novgorod to Norway
            1 armour moved from Caucasus to Kazakhstan
                  Germans take Kazakhstan from Russians
            1 armour moved from Kazakhstan to Caucasus
            1 infantry moved from Rostov to Volgograd
            1 artillery moved from Rostov to Volgograd
            1 armour moved from Rostov to Tambov
                  Germans take Tambov from Russians
            1 armour moved from Tambov to Rostov
            2 infantry moved from Northwest Persia to Iraq
            1 mech_infantry moved from Caucasus to Iraq
            1 armour moved from Caucasus to Iraq
            1 infantry moved from Rostov to Volgograd
            1 destroyer moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone

Combat - Germans
            Germans creates battle in territory 97 Sea Zone
            Battle in Norway
                Germans attack with 1 fighter and 5 infantry
                British defend with 1 aaGun; French defend with 2 infantry; Americans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 airfield, 1 factory_minor and 2 infantry
                2 infantry retreated to Finland
                Americans win with 4 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 1
                Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry
                Casualties for British: 1 aaGun
                Casualties for Americans: 1 aaGun
            Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
                Germans attack with 9 armour, 14 artilleries, 2 bombers, 4 fighters, 35 infantry, 9 mech_infantrys and 4 tactical_bombers
                British defend with 1 aaGun, 7 fighters, 12 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; French defend with 1 fighter; Americans defend with 2 aaGuns, 1 airfield, 6 armour, 5 artilleries, 1 factory_minor, 2 fighters, 1 harbour, 21 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys; Russians defend with 2 fighters
                Germans win, taking Normandy Bordeaux from Americans with 4 armour, 2 bombers, 3 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 69
                Casualties for Germans: 5 armour, 14 artilleries, 1 fighter, 35 infantry and 9 mech_infantrys
                Casualties for British: 1 aaGun, 7 fighters, 12 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                Casualties for French: 1 fighter
                Casualties for Americans: 2 aaGuns, 6 armour, 5 artilleries, 2 fighters, 21 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys
                Casualties for Russians: 2 fighters
            Battle in Volgograd
                Germans attack with 1 artillery and 2 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 factory_minor and 1 infantry
                Germans win, taking Volgograd from Russians with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Battle in Iraq
                Germans attack with 1 armour, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                British defend with 3 infantry
                1 armour owned by the Germans retreated to Northwest Persia
                British win with 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -10
                Casualties for Germans: 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry

Non Combat Move - Germans
            1 infantry moved from Vyborg to Novgorod
            1 infantry moved from Baltic States to Novgorod
            2 bombers moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Western Germany
            1 fighter moved from Normandy Bordeaux to France
            1 fighter moved from Norway to Western Germany
            1 fighter moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Southern Italy
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Southern Italy
            3 tactical_bombers moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Western Germany
            1 fighter moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Western Germany
            1 aaGun moved from Caucasus to Northwest Persia
            1 infantry moved from Rostov to Caucasus
            7 mech_infantrys moved from Caucasus to Northwest Persia
            6 armour moved from Caucasus to Northwest Persia
            2 mech_infantrys moved from Caucasus to Northwest Persia
            1 mech_infantry moved from Ukraine to Rostov
            1 mech_infantry moved from Ukraine to Caucasus

Place Units - Germans
            1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Ukraine
            1 fighter and 2 infantry placed in Novgorod
            2 infantry placed in France
            1 infantry placed in Western Germany
            1 artillery, 2 infantry and 6 mech_infantrys placed in Germany
            Germans undo move 5.
            2 mech_infantrys placed in Western Germany
            Germans undo move 4.
            1 infantry placed in France
            1 artillery, 2 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys placed in Germany
            Germans undo move 4.
            1 mech_infantry placed in Germany
            1 mech_infantry placed in Western Germany
            Germans undo move 5.
            1 infantry placed in Western Germany
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys placed in Germany

Turn Complete - Germans
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 4
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 80 Sea Zone. Rolls: 2,3
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 4,5,4,3,1,3,2,1,6,2
            Germans collect 51 PUs (4 lost to blockades); end with 51 PUs total
            Objective Germans 6 Control Iraq Or Persia Or Northwest Persia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 53 PUs
            Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 63 PUs
            Objective Germans 3 Control Caucasus: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 68 PUs
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Japan: 1 bomber
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Philippines: 1 bomber
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Germany: 1 artillery
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Western Germany: 1 mech_infantry
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Western Germany: 1 artillery
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Germany: 1 mech_infantry
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Western Germany: 1 bomber
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Southern Italy: 1 bomber
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

[JDOW]

@Adam514:

Yeah I would lose 2 AA to that attack.

You need to look at average left not at average left when attackers win in order to get the most accurate estimate.

Nice timing, I checked and there was 0 downloads prior to that edit:)
However it wont affect russia for sure.

Regarding the average:

Yeah, average TUV was close to average. However some players claim to be unlucky in case the average TUV is above average for the attacker. This is because the total average includes the disasters which occur rarely.

Most extreme example is 10 bombers vs 1 inf. average TUV -1. However in 2/3 of the cases the TUV ends up +3.

So if in a 90% battle the average TUV is +70, the most likely outcome is something above +70.
That’s why I tend to look at the average survivors when winning.

But still: If you go for a 90/10 shot you should never forget to be happy that the 10% did not happen to you which I am!

[Adam514]

The median will be above 70, but you still have a decent chance of getting -50 on a loss. If you look at average on a win you’ll be disappointed by reality.