@Chengora:
… and the widespread use of Taiwanese as opposed to Mandarin …
AFAIK Mandarin is the official language of Taiwan. Brought and enforced by the KMT, they had a strict anti-Taiwanese (language) program. Although this has changed i don’t think the use is “widespread” and then surely the use of Mandarin should be widespread (being the offical language).
True in an official sense, but not as reflective of reality. More than 80 percent of Taiwanese speak, well, Taiwanese, which is highly related to Fukienese. The further south you go on the island, the less useful a knowledge of Mandarin is, to the point of being at times useless. In addition, for the elderly generation right now, don’t forget that their native languages are Taiwanese and Japanese because of the occupation, further limiting the number of people who speak Mandarin. While the KMT used to enforce a strict anti-Taiwanese, pro-Mandarin policy, that has ended, and KMT politicians are all learning Taiwanese now in order to communicate with voters. No doubt, Mandarin is widespread, but Taiwanese is likely equally so. What is particularly amazing is how Taiwanese, despite official policies to restrict it, was preserved and is now seeing a marked resurgence, particularly outside of Taipei.
For your post, Baker, I’d agree: it’s a pretty slim (although in a strange way, cool) possibility. The Chinese currently do not have the proper command and control systems in place for such a strike, although they are trying to develop it. The US DOD is encouraging Taiwan to stop buying weapons platforms and instead increase training on their operations with the US, which will further erode China’s ability to pull this kind of stunt off. Plus, Taiwan’s radar systems are better than China’s, and can likely detect most of their rotary aircraft.
There would also of course be big problems with international and Taiwanese pressure following such a strike. That would certainly be seen as a unilateral move, and the US may then in fact move in the 6th fleet down to the Strait to separate them. I think it takes less than a day to get there, so the PRC would need a sufficiently large amphibious force to follow the insertion and then occupy the island before the U.S. gets there. Plus, I think they still may have to content with Taiwan’s missile and naval defense systems, even if they are fully successful in such a decapitation strike. Internally, you’d probably see riots and protests against the new government, as all political parties have staked a position saying that military attack from China is reprehensible.
is it possible that the people in Taiwan do, or will, think of themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese?
Hell they are closer to Japan under 50 years of rule in their recent modern past and the united states then China. They have nothing to do with china anymore. WE rebuilt all those post war Japanese colonies and they take kindly to what we have impressed upon them, China didnt do anything except try to reoccupy them following WW2 after the “coast was clear” but it didnt gain a real result , and Taiwan just went ahead with the toy soldier assembly line and put their nation back in black!
Don’t go too far in other direction. Culture connections are still very important. And cross-Strait economic ties are burgeoning, which feeds into Mary and SUD’s points about trade power.
Also, the rebuilding of Taiwan is more complicated than you portray. First off, the U.S. only took an indirect hand in rebuilding the island, which wasn’t damaged all that much anyway from WWII. Mostly, the U.S. gave money to the KMT, who did some not so nice things with it (the 2/28 massacre readily comes to mind). Incidentaly, while yes, the KMT did a better job eventually of economic development in Taiwan, while on the Mainland, they did horribly, which is a large part of the reason they were defeated in 1947. Moreover, I am reading into your comments a bit, so correct me if I’m wrong, but the China versus Taiwan economic development case is not one of Communism versus traditional liberal development policy. Rather, it’s best thought of as import substitution versus developing export-oriented industries.
And dint forget the looming conflict with Israel and Iran coming soon to a TV near you. This wasn’t touched yet, but its pretty inevitable that something is afoot.
@Imperious:
And dint forget the looming conflict with Israel and Iran coming soon to a TV near you. This wasn’t touched yet, but its pretty inevitable that something is afoot.
Sure it won;t just be an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities much like Israel did in Iraq in 84? Would be in keeping with 30+ years of the US letting Israel do our dirty work in the middle east…
Don’t know if an airstrike will do it. Didn’t Iran build the facility underground?
Rune Blade
A nuclear war between Israel and Iran is as likely as a nuclear war between the USA and the USSR or one between India and Pakistan.
Gov’t people know what they do and what they say, and where the difference between the two is.
A question to some (if you don’t understand, then you are not one of them and it is not polite to answer questions that others are asked directly):
Why is what Ahmadinejad said not a hyperbole … ?
Sure it won;t just be an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities much like Israel did in Iraq in 84?
I assume you’re referring to Osirak in 1981? In any event, a similar strike is unlikely to be repeated. Only at a stretch would Israel have the capability of launching such a strike, as is widely acknowledged in the security field. Any strike would inevitably bring recriminations of collusion with the US, as they are the only ones which could supply such a mission to ensure a reasonable chance of success. And, like IL said, the Iranians have learned from the Iraqi mistake, and moved some of their facilities underground. Plus, intelligence is not that good, so even the US does not know how many and what kind of facilities Iran has. A pre-emptive strike would only teach the Iranians more about what Israel and the US know.
i believe they are called bunker-buster bombs. i have seen these bad boys in action. they could get the job done by either blowing it up or dumping a bunch of earth on it, either way the facility would be useless after wards. America also knows where these things are, anything nuke like glows for our pretty satalights, so dig all you want but we can still see you. :lol:
Careful, now. The US military admits that it cannot know or take out all potential reactors in North Korea, let alone a country the size of and as isolated as Iran. Plus, only high-energy reactors are detectable. If it’s far enough underground or not producing a lot of energy (which the enrichment process generally does not), then satellite surveillance will be unlikely to be effective. Also, could you imagine the consequences of any unilateral action by the U.S.? That’s why the US is trying to go through the Security Council on this one, and why it’s been quiet about Russia’s plan to process nuclear material on Russian soil as opposed to Iranian.
don’t let the enemy know all of your capability’s, sun tzu knew his sh*t
Clausewitz would be quite astonished.
@F_alk:
Clausewitz would be quite astonished.
touche! :wink:
