12L LuckyLindy vs Jennifer Game 1

[Jennifer]

@LuckyLindy:

I don’t know how you are getting that. � You were about 65% to win that battle. � And yes you got quite lucky, but still you are behind.

Cheers

’

Average outcome of 10,000 battles
Attacker: 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. v. Defender: 10 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car, 1 Bat. Link to or bookmark this scenario.
Average battle duration: 3.5 rounds of combat

Overall %*: A. survives: 34.5% D. survives: 63.9% No one survives: 1.7%
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Overall %*: A. survives: 34.5% D. survives: 63.9% No one survives: 1.7%

• percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. The average results from above are highlighted in charts below, while the median result (equal odds of getting a worse or better result) is written in red. If shown, the 1st and 2nd standard deviations about the mean are represented in blue and light blue. Attacker results:

---

Probability % # units / losses
  0.03% 16: 7 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Fig, 6 Des. : 58 IPCs
  0.03% 15: 6 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 2 Fig, 6 Des. : 68 IPCs
  0.12% 14: 5 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 3 Fig, 6 Des. : 78 IPCs
  0.42% 13: 4 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 4 Fig, 6 Des. : 88 IPCs
  0.64% 12: 3 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 5 Fig, 6 Des. : 98 IPCs
  1.06% 11: 2 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 6 Fig, 6 Des. : 108 IPCs
  1.6% 10: 1 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 7 Fig, 6 Des. : 118 IPCs
  2.37% 9: 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 6 Des. : 128 IPCs
  3.54% 8: 3 Bom, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 6 Des, 1 Cru. : 140 IPCs
  3.43% 7: 2 Bom, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 1 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru. : 152 IPCs
  4.35% 6: 1 Bom, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 2 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru. : 164 IPCs
  4.67% 5: 4 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru. : 176 IPCs
  3.53% 4: 3 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 1 Car. : 190 IPCs
  3.31% 3: 2 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 2 Car. : 204 IPCs
  2.89% 2: 1 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 3 Car. : 218 IPCs
  2.46% 1: 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 4 Car. : 232 IPCs
  65.55% 0: no units. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. : 252 IPCs

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Defender results:

Probability % # units / losses
  0.02% 16: 10 Fig, 5 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des. : 38 IPCs
  0.05% 15: 10 Fig, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des, 1 Car. : 52 IPCs
  0.22% 14: 10 Fig, 3 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des, 2 Car. : 66 IPCs
  0.51% 13: 10 Fig, 2 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des, 3 Car. : 80 IPCs
  0.92% 12: 10 Fig, 1 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des, 4 Car. : 94 IPCs
  1.92% 11: 10 Fig, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 108 IPCs
  2.7% 10: 9 Fig, 1 Bat. 1 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 118 IPCs
  4.62% 9: 8 Fig, 1 Bat. 2 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 128 IPCs
  6.27% 8: 7 Fig, 1 Bat. 3 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 138 IPCs
  7.5% 7: 6 Fig, 1 Bat. 4 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 148 IPCs
  8.03% 6: 5 Fig, 1 Bat. 5 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 158 IPCs
  8.34% 5: 4 Fig, 1 Bat. 6 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 168 IPCs
  7.52% 4: 3 Fig, 1 Bat. 7 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 178 IPCs
  6.41% 3: 2 Fig, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 188 IPCs
  5.33% 2: 1 Fig, 1 Bat. 9 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 198 IPCs
  3.53% 1: 1 Bat. 10 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 208 IPCs
  36.11% 0: no units. 10 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car, 1 Bat. : 228 IPCs

[Jennifer]

That;s frood’s report.  I don’t trust dskelly, they’re almost 100% wrong and I don’t know why.

[Jennifer]

Literally forget to move the tiles from Bulgaria to Italy for the 2 fighters.

New map.

L12_LuckyLindy_v_Jen_Game01_06eI.AAM

[LuckyLindy]

Who knows for sure.  I think you were favored, but either way, I never would have knowingly given you more than a 20% chance in that battle.  You are correct, you have a long way to go in this one to get back in the game.

Cheers

[LuckyLindy]

America turn 6

Purchase

47 IPC

11 infantry
artillery

China gets 1 infantry

Combat Moves

sbr WUS with 2 bombers (WCA) should have bombed with the Brits as well, took me a bit to realize it.  Not used to bombing WUS as the allies  :lol:

China

HUP (infantry) v 6 infantry (NIN)
SIK (infantry) v infantry (CHI), infantry (NIN)

dice

WUS bombing
Rolls: 2@6; Total Hits: 22@6: (1, 4)

HUP
A - 6 infantry
Rolls: 6@1; Total Hits: 16@1: (6, 4, 3, 2, 5, 1)
D - infantry
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

[LuckyLindy]

5 damage to WUS

HUP taken with 5 infantry

SIK
A - 2 infantry
Rolls: 2@1; Total Hits: 02@1: (2, 2)
D - infantry
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1)

[LuckyLindy]

retreat to NIN

Noncombat Moves

2 bombers from WUS to EUS
infantry from WCA to CUS
infantry, 2 AA guns from WCA to ECA
transport, destroyer, ac from Z3 to Z7
fighter from Z3 to EUS
destroyer from Z46 to Z39

China
infantry from NIN to HUP

Mobilize

11 infantry, artillery in EUS

China

infantry in NIN

Income

29 + 10 saved = 39

L12_LuckyLindy_v_Jen_Game01_06fUSA.AAM

[Jennifer]

Germany:

Buy(30)

• 10 Infantry

Combat Moves:

2 Infantry, 4 Fighters, Bomber to NWE

Attacker:
Rolls: 2@1 4@3 1@4; Total Hits: 22@1: (3, 4)4@3: (4, 5, 6, 3)1@4: (2)
Defender:
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[Jennifer]

Build 10 infantry in Germany

Collect: 26 + 5 = 31 IPC

L12_LuckyLindy_v_Jen_Game01_07Agermany.AAM

[LuckyLindy]

Soviet turn 7

Purchase

42 IPC

9 infantry
3 tanks

Combat Moves

EVE (empty) v infantry (URA)
POL (infantry) v 2 infantry (EPL), bomber (CAU)
BUL (infantry) v infantry, artillery (EPL)

dice

POL
A - 2 infantry, bomber
Rolls: 2@1 1@4; Total Hits: 12@1: (2, 5)1@4: (3)
D - infantry
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)

[LuckyLindy]

POL taken with 2 infantry, bomber

BUL
A - infantry, artillery
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 22@2: (2, 1)
D - infantry
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

[LuckyLindy]

BUL taken with artillery

Noncombat Moves

bomber from POL to CAU
3 infantry from PER to IND
tank from IND to PER
2 infantry from KAR to BST
3 infantry from RUS to BEL
2 tanks from RUS to EVE
tank from RUS to CHI
3 infantry from NOV to EVE
7 infantry, artillery from CAU to EUK

3 infantry from RUS to CAU
3 infantry from NOV to CHI
submarine from Z29 to Z39
infantry, AA gun from NIN to HUP
infantry from CHI to NIN

Mobilize

4 infantry, 2 tanks in RUS
2 infantry in KAR
3 infantry, tank in CAU

Income

31 + 15 NO = 46

L12_LuckyLindy_v_Jen_Game01_07bR.AAM

[LuckyLindy]

Have you forgotten this game Jennifer?

Cheers

[Jennifer]

Japan:

Buy(68)

• 5 Repair San Francisco
• 11 Infantry
• 5 Artillery
• 2 Armor

Combat Moves:

2 Infantry, 2 Fighters to C. USA
Infantry to Mexico
2 Infantry, 2 Fighters to W. Canada
Infantry to Alaska (transport move)

Combat:

C. USA:
Attacker:
Rolls: 2@1 2@3; Total Hits: 22@1: (5, 5)2@3: (3, 1)
Defender:
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

[Jennifer]

W. Canada:
Attacker:
Rolls: 2@1 2@3; Total Hits: 02@1: (5, 2)2@3: (5, 6)
Defender:
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)

[Jennifer]

W. Canada:
Attacker:
Rolls: 2@1 2@3; Total Hits: 12@1: (4, 3)2@3: (6, 2)
Defender:
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[Jennifer]

NCM:

Infantry to Yunnan
2 Infantry, Fighter to FIC
Infantry, Armor to FIC
2 Fighters to Yakut
5 Transports to SZ 59
Fighter, Bomber to W. USA

Build: 5 Infantry, 5 Artillery in W. USA
Build: 6 Infantry, 2 Armor in Japan

Collect: 73 IPC

L12_LuckyLindy_v_Jen_Game01_07cJ.AAM

[CdnRanger]

Just to comment on the odds calculator -

Gotta be careful with Frood, it’s great for land battles, but keeps carriers instead of fighters for the attacker after round 1 for Navy, so you have to re-adjust (add fighters lose 1 carrier/2 fighters) and run each round/batch of 1000x until all units gone - So you never really get an accurate odds calculation.

Hopefully this helps a bit for everyone…

Cheers!

[Jennifer]

@CdnRanger:

Just to comment on the odds calculator -

Gotta be careful with Frood, it’s great for land battles, but keeps carriers instead of fighters for the attacker after round 1 for Navy, so you have to re-adjust (add fighters lose 1 carrier/2 fighters) and run each round/batch of 1000x until all units gone - So you never really get an accurate odds calculation.

Hopefully this helps a bit for everyone…

Cheers!

It’s still MILES better than Dskelly - as long as you adjust for naval battles a little.  (You also have to adjust because it cannot handle tactical bombers.)  However, even with no adjustments I find Frood a lot better than dskelly.  Dskelly seems to be off by 13-17% in every naval engagement (always in favor of the defender).  Not sure about land battles, since Frood does that really well, I never bothered to use dskelly for it.

[LuckyLindy]

Britain turn 7

Purchase

44 IPC

8 infantry
IC

save 5 IPC

Combat Moves

sbr WUS with bomber (EUS)
ALG (empty) v 2 infantry (GBR) unload in Z13
Z36 (transport, 2 destroyers) v 2 bombers (IND)
BOR (infantry) v infantry, artillery (AUS)

dice

WUS bombing
Rolls: 1@6; Total Hits: 11@6: (1)

BOR
A - infantry, artillery
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 02@2: (3, 4)
D - infantry
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)